If you were looking for an excuse to keep those heavy winter coats tucked in the back of the closet, you’ve got it. Honestly, calling the upcoming weather for phoenix next week "winter" feels like a bit of a stretch. We are looking at a stretch of days that would make most of the country weep with envy, but for us locals, it’s that weird time of year where the morning chill tries to trick you into wearing a hoodie you'll be sweating in by lunchtime.
Phoenix is currently caught in a massive high-pressure "blocking pattern." Basically, a giant ridge of warm air is sitting over the West, acting like a bouncer at a club and refusing to let any cold fronts or rain clouds from the Pacific get anywhere near the Valley of the Sun.
The Mid-January Heat Spike
Starting Thursday, January 15, things are going to get remarkably warm for this time of year. We aren't just talking "nice out"—we are looking at temperatures nearly 10 to 12 degrees above what is considered "normal" for mid-January.
Thursday is likely to hit 80°F.
That is a significant jump from the usual 66°F or 67°F we typically see. National Weather Service meteorologists have noted that while we might not smash every historical record on the books, we are definitely knocking on the door. Friday maintains that energy with a high of 78°F, and the weekend stays remarkably consistent. You can expect 77°F on Saturday and 76°F on Sunday.
It's essentially a preview of April in the middle of the "cool season."
What Most People Get Wrong About Desert Winters
There is a common misconception that Phoenix just stays "hot" all the time. But if you’ve lived here long enough, you know the real danger is the diurnal swing. Next week, while we are basking in those high 70s during the afternoon, the nights are still dropping into the upper 40s and low 50s.
- Thursday Night: 51°F
- Friday Night: 50°F
- Saturday Night: 49°F
That’s a 30-degree difference. If you leave the house at 7:00 AM without a light jacket, you’re going to regret it. By 2:00 PM, if you haven’t shed those layers, you’ll be miserable. This is the classic Phoenix "onion" style of dressing—layers upon layers.
The Zero-Percent Chance of Rain
Don't bother looking for your umbrella. The current La Niña influence, which has been hanging around and is expected to transition to "neutral" later this spring, is keeping our skies almost entirely clear.
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We might see some "passing thin cirrus," which is meteorologist-speak for those wispy, high-altitude clouds that don't actually provide shade but make the sunsets look incredible. Humidity levels are staying in the 15% to 25% range during the day. It is dry. Bone dry. Your skin will feel it before your eyes see it, so keep the moisturizer and the water bottle handy.
A Quick Reality Check on History
Looking back at the data from the NWS Phoenix office, January 21 and 22 have a weird history. Back in 1937, Phoenix actually had a massive snowstorm where parts of the city saw up to 4 inches of snow.
That is not happening this year.
Instead of historical anomalies, we are dealing with a very stable, very warm ridge. The wind is also expected to be mostly a non-factor. We had some gusts earlier in the week due to a pressure clash over the Baja Peninsula, but that’s subsiding. Expect light breezes from the east and northeast at about 5 to 8 mph—just enough to keep the air from feeling completely stagnant.
Actionable Next Steps for the Week
Since the weather for phoenix next week is leaning so heavily into the "outdoor adventure" category, here is how you should actually handle it:
- Hydrate Early: Because it’s not 110°F, people forget to drink water. With humidity under 20%, you’re losing moisture just by breathing.
- UV Protection: The UV index is hovering around 3. It sounds low, but with clear skies, that desert sun is still strong enough to burn you during a long lunch at an outdoor patio.
- Plant Check: If you have sensitive winter plants, they are probably loving this warmth, but don't get complacent. The overnight lows in the high 40s are safe for most, but if a rogue "cold" night hits 40°F later in the month, the shock could kill new growth stimulated by this week's heat.
- Hike Early or Late: The 75-80°F range is perfect for Camelback or Piestewa, but remember the sun sets early (around 5:45 PM). Don't be the person the fire department has to rescue because you ran out of daylight on the trail.
This warmth is likely to stick around until at least Wednesday, January 21, when a very slight cooling trend might bring us back down toward the low 70s. Until then, enjoy the faked-out spring.