If you’ve ever stood on the platform at the Pawling train station waiting for the Metro-North, you know the deal. The wind whips through that valley like it’s got a personal vendetta against your coat. People talk about "Upstate" weather, but Pawling exists in this weird microclimate transition zone between the Hudson Highlands and the Berkshires. It’s a place where the weather for Pawling New York can change before you’ve even finished your coffee at the local bakery.
Honestly, the forecast right now is a perfect example of why this town keeps you on your toes.
Right now, Pawling is sitting at a crisp 28°F, though the "feels like" temperature is dragging down to 22°F. We’ve got a south wind at about 5 mph and humidity is maxed out at 93%. If you look out the window, it’s mostly partly cloudy tonight, but don’t let that calm fool you.
We’re in the middle of a Winter Weather Advisory for a reason.
The Immediate Outlook: Snow and Shifting Skies
Tonight is basically the calm before a very specific, localized storm. While the chance of precipitation right this second is only 3%, things ramp up fast as we head into Sunday.
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Saturday, January 17, 2026, brought us a high of 33°F with a low of 26°F. We’re seeing a 75% chance of snow during the day. It’s that heavy, wet Northeast snow that makes the trees look like a postcard but turns the backroads into a skating rink. By tonight, the chance of snow drops to 20%, leaving us with a cloudy, quiet night and a south wind at 7 mph.
Tomorrow, Sunday, January 18, is looking like a repeat performance. We’re expecting another high of 33°F, but the low is going to plummet to 15°F. There’s a 40% chance of snow during the day and a 45% chance at night.
Basically, keep the shovel by the door.
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A Breakdown of the Week Ahead
If you’re planning your week, Monday is when the "real" winter hits. The high only reaches 27°F, and the low drops to a bone-chilling 11°F. It’ll be partly sunny, which is nice for the soul but doesn't do much for the thermometer. The wind is going to kick up too, coming from the southwest at 13 mph.
Tuesday, January 20, is the day you’ll want to stay inside. We’re looking at a high of 19°F and a low of 5°F. It’ll be sunny, but that kind of sun is deceptive. It’s the "bright but freezing" weather that makes the snow crunch like broken glass under your boots.
By mid-week, the temperatures start to fluctuate again.
- Wednesday: High of 28°F, but a brutal low of 4°F.
- Thursday: A brief "warm-up" to 35°F.
- Friday: Back down to 26°F.
Why Pawling’s Geography Messes with the Forecast
Most people don’t realize how much the local topography impacts the weather for Pawling New York. You’ve got the Appalachian Trail running right through the town, and those ridges act like a funnel for air masses.
I’ve seen it happen dozens of times. A storm tracks up the coast and looks like it might miss us, then it hits the hills, stalls out, and dumps six inches of snow on Quaker Hill while the Village just gets a dusting. It’s localized. It’s unpredictable. It’s Pawling.
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Historical data from sources like WeatherSpark and the National Weather Service shows that January is typically our coldest month, with average lows around 18°F. But averages are just numbers. Real life in Pawling means dealing with a humidity level that stays around 80-90% during these winter storms, making the cold feel much heavier than the same temperature in a dry climate.
Essential Next Steps for Local Residents
Living here requires a certain level of tactical planning. Here is how to actually handle the next 48 hours:
- Prep for the Sunday Night Drop: With the low hitting 15°F tomorrow night, any slush on the ground from the daytime snow will flash-freeze. Salt your walkways before dinner.
- Monitor the Monday Wind: That 13 mph southwest wind on Monday is going to make it feel significantly colder than 27°F. If you’re hiking or out with the dog, face protection isn't optional.
- Check Your Pipes: When we hit that 4°F low on Wednesday, that’s the danger zone for older homes in the Village. Keep a slow drip going in your furthest faucet.
- Travel Precautions: Sunday’s snow chance is high enough to warrant extra time for any trips on Route 22 or Route 55, which can get treacherous near the patches of black ice by the Great Swamp.
The weather for Pawling New York isn't just a set of numbers; it's the rhythm of life in the Hudson Valley. Stay warm, keep an eye on those dropping temperatures, and maybe treat yourself to a hot drink while you watch the snow fall on Sunday afternoon.