Right now, if you step outside in Marshall, it’s about 30°F. Kinda chilly, honestly. With a light breeze coming out of the south at 9 mph, that "feels like" temperature is sitting closer to 22°F. It’s the kind of January day where the sky stays a stubborn, flat cloudy grey, and you’re basically just waiting for the next change in the atmosphere.
Living here in the foothills of the Blue Ridge, you get used to the weather for marshall va being a bit of a moving target.
The Immediate Outlook: Snow, Rain, and the Usual January Chaos
If you were hoping for a dry weekend, I've got some bad news. Today, Friday, January 16, we’re looking at a high of 34°F. It’ll stay cloudy most of the afternoon, but once the sun goes down and we hit that low of 18°F, things get interesting. There’s a 35% chance of light snow tonight. It’s not a blizzard, but it’s enough to make the backroads near Frogtown or Rectortown a little slick.
Tomorrow, Saturday, January 17, the temperature actually jumps up to 44°F. That’s a decent swing. However, that warmth comes with a messy mix of rain and snow (a 45% chance, to be exact). By the time Monday rolls around, the clouds finally break for some actual sun, though it’s going to be a "bundle up" situation with a low of 9°F.
👉 See also: Executive desk with drawers: Why your home office setup is probably failing you
What Most People Get Wrong About Marshall’s Climate
A lot of folks moving out from DC or Fairfax assume the weather here is just "the same but ten minutes later."
That’s a mistake.
Marshall sits in a unique spot. We’re in that transition zone between the Piedmont and the Blue Ridge Mountains. According to the Virginia State Climatology Office, the Northern Virginia region usually sees January highs around 42°F, but Marshall often runs a few degrees cooler because of the elevation—about 663 feet above sea level.
✨ Don't miss: Monroe Central High School Ohio: What Local Families Actually Need to Know
The wind is the real kicker. Because we don't have the dense "urban heat island" effect you find in Arlington, the wind chill here bites harder. When that northwest wind kicks up to 17 mph like it’s forecast to do later this month, it cuts right through a standard fleece.
The Seasonal Reality
- Spring: It’s gorgeous but dangerous for gardeners. The last frost usually hits in late April, but the "Goldilocks Climate" of Virginia means we can have a 70-degree day followed by a killing frost three nights later.
- Summer: July is the heavy hitter. Average highs hit 87°F, and the humidity makes it feel like you’re walking through a warm soup. June is actually our wettest month, averaging about 11.4 days of rain.
- Fall: This is why people live here. Peak foliage usually hits between October 15 and 25. The air clears out, the "stickiness" vanishes, and it’s just perfect.
- Winter: It’s inconsistent. Some years we get the "Snowmageddon" types, and others, like this current stretch, involve a lot of "wintry mix" and temperatures hovering just around freezing.
Gardening and the USDA Zones
If you’re trying to grow anything in Marshall, you’re likely working in USDA Hardiness Zone 6b or 7a. It’s a bit of a gamble.
The Northern Virginia Soil and Water Conservation District points out that cold air actually "drains" down hillsides. If your garden is in a low spot, you’re going to deal with frost pockets that stay frozen long after the ridge tops have thawed out. Most local experts recommend waiting until at least the first week of May to put tomatoes in the ground.
🔗 Read more: What Does a Stoner Mean? Why the Answer Is Changing in 2026
Severe Weather: It’s Not Just Snow
We don't talk about it much, but Fauquier County has its fair share of drama. Since 1950, there have been about 28 recorded tornadoes in the county. Most of them are small, but the April 2017 outbreak saw three in a single day.
Then there’s the flooding. Because of the way the creeks run toward the Rappahannock and Potomac watersheds, heavy rain—like the remnants of Ida in 2021—can turn a quiet stream into a road-closing torrent in about twenty minutes.
How to Handle the Marshall Winter
If you’re new to the area or just trying to survive the week, here’s the move:
- Watch the "Feels Like": Don't look at the 30°F on your phone and think you're fine. Check the wind. That southwest wind at 12 mph is what actually determines if you need the heavy coat or just a layer.
- Prep for the Monday Drop: We are heading for a low of 9°F on Monday night. If you have outdoor pipes or sensitive plants you forgot to cover, Sunday is your last chance before the deep freeze hits.
- Salt Early: With the rain-to-snow transition expected tomorrow, get your salt or sand down on the steps before the temperature drops back toward freezing on Sunday.
- Check the Roads: Marshall’s backroads are beautiful, but VDOT focuses on Route 17 and I-66 first. If you live off a gravel road, that 35% chance of snow tonight might mean a slow start tomorrow.
The weather here isn't trying to be difficult; it’s just the reality of living where the mountains meet the plains. Keep an eye on those overnight lows, especially as we head into next week.