If you’ve spent any time in Monroe County, you know that the weather for Aberdeen Mississippi isn’t just a topic for small talk at the local diner; it’s basically a survival skill. One day you’re wearing a light jacket while walking near the Tombigbee River, and by the next afternoon, you’re dragging the heavy quilts out of the cedar chest because a "Blue Norther" just barreled through.
It’s temperamental. Honestly, it’s a bit of a roller coaster.
Right now, in mid-January 2026, we are seeing exactly why this region keeps meteorologists on their toes. We just came off a week where temperatures were nearly 15 degrees warmer than this time last year. It felt like an early spring. But don't let that fool you. The "January Thaw" is a classic Mississippi trap. As of January 15, we are staring down a sharp drop. While earlier this week saw highs in the 50s and even 60s, the forecast is currently bottoming out. Tonight, we’re looking at a low near 25°F.
That is a 30-degree swing in the span of 48 hours. Typical Aberdeen.
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What Most People Get Wrong About Aberdeen Winters
People from up north think Mississippi winters are just "mild."
That’s a half-truth that’ll leave your pipes frozen. While we don't get the six feet of snow that New York or Michigan deals with, we get something arguably more annoying: ice and humidity. In Aberdeen, the average humidity in January sits around 68% to 89%.
When it’s 35 degrees and 90% humidity, that cold doesn’t just sit on your skin; it gets into your bones. It's a "wet cold."
The Polar Vortex and 2026 Trends
This year is particularly weird because of the weakening Polar Vortex. While the early part of January 2026 was surprisingly warm—some parts of the South saw records break—the second half of the month is looking much more aggressive. The National Weather Service is tracking a surge of Arctic air that is supposed to push down through the Tennessee Valley and into Northeast Mississippi.
What does that mean for you?
It means the next two weeks will likely be the coldest we've seen in three years. We aren't just talking about a light frost. We are talking about sustained lows in the 20s. If you haven't wrapped your outdoor faucets yet, you’ve basically got about twelve hours before you’re regretting it.
Predicting the Unpredictable: Rain, Ice, and Sun
Aberdeen gets a lot of rain. On average, January sees about 4.97 inches of precipitation.
Rarely is it snow.
In fact, the chance of seeing actual, "build-a-snowman" snow in Aberdeen during January is only about 1%. Most of the time, what we get is "wintry mix"—that slushy, messy combination of rain and sleet that makes Highway 45 a nightmare to drive on.
A Quick Breakdown of What to Expect This Month:
- Daytime Highs: Usually around 52°F to 56°F.
- Nighttime Lows: Typically hover near 31°F, but can dip to the teens during an Arctic blast.
- Cloud Cover: January is actually the cloudiest month of the year here. You’ll see gray skies about 52% of the time.
- Daylight: We are gaining about a minute of sun every day. By January 31, the sun won't set until 5:24 PM.
The weather for Aberdeen Mississippi is influenced heavily by the Gulf of Mexico to the south and the Great Plains to the northwest. We are the battlefield where those two air masses fight. When the warm, moist air from the Gulf hits the cold dry air from the north right over Monroe County, that’s when we get the "showers" predicted for later this week.
The Severe Weather Reality
It’s not just the cold. Mississippi is famous for its "second tornado season" in the late fall and early winter. While spring is the primary risk time, January can produce some nasty surprises.
The state has seen over 100 billion-dollar weather disasters since 1980. Severe storms make up nearly half of those. In Aberdeen, we have to be vigilant because our "cold" fronts often come with high-wind events. Winds this week are expected to be around 10 to 15 mph, but during a front, gusts can easily double that.
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Practical Steps for Dealing With Aberdeen’s Current Weather
If you're living in or visiting Aberdeen right now, don't trust a sunny morning.
First, check your tire pressure. These 30-degree temperature swings will make your "low pressure" light pop on faster than you can find a gas station with an air pump.
Second, watch the "dew point." In Aberdeen, the dew point is a better indicator of how "raw" the air will feel than the actual temperature. If the dew point is in the 20s or 30s, it's going to be a biting, dry cold. If it’s higher, expect that damp, soul-crushing chill.
Third, prepare for the "Big Freeze" coming this weekend. The transition to ENSO-neutral conditions in the Pacific means our local patterns are shifting. We are moving away from the mild La Niña start and into a more volatile period.
Fourth, stay updated with local resources. Don't just rely on the generic app on your phone. Look at the NWS Memphis station—they’re the ones who actually cover our specific slice of the Deep South.
The weather for Aberdeen Mississippi is a moving target. You’ve got to be ready for rain at 10 AM and a freeze by 10 PM.
Actionable Next Steps:
- Drip your faucets starting tonight if your home is on a pier-and-beam foundation or has exposed pipes.
- Move your potted plants inside; the "warm" start to the month might have tempted some of your perennials to bud early, and this freeze will kill them.
- Check your emergency kit for high-wind supplies, as the transition between these air masses often triggers power-flickering thunderstorms.