Honestly, if you’ve ever stood on the edge of Lake Winnipesaukee in January, you know that "cold" is a relative term. In Alton Bay, it’s not just about a number on a thermometer. It’s about the ice. Specifically, it's about whether that ice is thick enough to hold a Cessna.
Right now, the weather in Alton Bay NH is sitting at a crisp 24°F. It’s nighttime, the sky is cloudy, and it feels like 17°F thanks to a light 6 mph breeze coming off the west. This is exactly the kind of steady, boring cold local pilots and winter enthusiasts have been waiting for. We aren't talking about a massive blizzard—just a consistent chill that builds the foundation for the season.
The 12-Inch Rule and What’s Happening Now
You might have heard the chatter at Shibley’s or around town. Everyone wants to know when the Alton Bay Seaplane Base and Ice Runway (B18) will officially open for 2026. For those who don't know, this is the only FAA-approved ice runway in the lower 48 states. It’s legendary. But the state doesn't just eyeball it.
The ice has to be a solid 12 inches thick. Not 10. Not "mostly 12."
As of this week, we are in a tug-of-war with Mother Nature. Sunday, January 18, is looking at a high of 32°F with some snow showers—about a 20% chance during the day, jumping to 45% at night. That’s hovering right at the freezing mark. While snow is pretty, it actually acts like a blanket, insulating the ice and slowing down the "growing" process. What we really need are those deep-freeze nights.
The Upcoming Forecast: A Pilot’s Dream?
Looking at the next few days, the trend is moving in the right direction for the Alton Bay Winter Carnival coming up in February.
- Monday, Jan 19: We’re looking at 30°F with light snow.
- Tuesday, Jan 20: This is the big one. The temperature is going to plummet to a low of 7°F.
- Wednesday, Jan 21: Another deep freeze with a low of 6°F.
When the mercury hits those single digits, the "black ice" starts to harden beautifully. Paul Russo, a local expert who has landed on the bay over 100 times, often notes that these prolonged cold spells are what make the surface safe. If you're planning to fly in, or just want to watch the planes from the shore, these are the nights that make it possible.
📖 Related: Vancouver Canada Monthly Weather: What Most People Get Wrong
What Most People Get Wrong About Winnipesaukee Winters
People think that because the lake is huge, it takes forever to freeze. Well, yes and no. Alton Bay is a long, narrow finger of water. It's shallower than "The Broads" (that wide-open, deep section of the lake near Gilford). Because it's sheltered and shallower, it usually freezes much earlier and more reliably than the rest of Winnipesaukee.
But it’s also temperamental.
Wind is the enemy of ice formation. A windy night, even if it’s 10 degrees, can keep the water churning and prevent that first crystalline sheet from taking hold. Luckily, the winds this week are staying relatively calm, mostly between 5 and 13 mph. That’s perfect. It allows the surface to stay still and tighten up.
🔗 Read more: Finding the Perfect Image of Hawaiian Beach: What Most People Get Wrong
Survival Guide for Alton Bay Right Now
If you're heading up this weekend, don't be fooled by a "high of 32." The humidity is currently at 96%. Damp cold bites harder than dry cold.
Basically, you’ve gotta layer up.
A high-visibility jacket is a must if you’re walking near the bay, and honestly, bring some Yaktrax or ice cleats. With the current cloudy conditions and 10% chance of snow tonight, the docks and walkways are going to be deceptively slick.
💡 You might also like: London to Paris Train Travel: Why People Still Get the Timing Wrong
The Alton Bay Winter Carnival is set for February 15, 2026. Last year was a bit of a heartbreak with a storm cancellation, but the current 10-day trend suggests we are on track for a much better turnout this year.
Actionable Next Steps
- Monitor the Ice: Don't trust social media rumors. Follow the official Alton Bay Seaplane Base updates for runway status.
- Prep Your Vehicle: If you're driving up for the day, check your battery. Those upcoming 6°F nights are notorious for killing older car batteries.
- Book Now: If the runway opens next week, lodging in the Lakes Region will disappear instantly. Everyone wants to see the planes land on the ice.
- Check the Wind: If you’re a pilot, watch Tuesday's wind speeds. We’re expecting 13 mph gusts from the west, which can create some tricky crosswinds on that 2,600-foot strip.
Stay warm, keep an eye on the thermometer, and let's hope for a solid foot of ice by next weekend.