Let's be real for a second. We barely finished the nets being cut down and we’re already arguing about who’s going to San Antonio next year. It's a sickness. But honestly, in the era of the transfer portal and NIL madness, the way too early top 25 basketball rankings are basically the only thing keeping us sane during the long, dry summer months and the early November slate.
Right now, the landscape looks like a video game on random mode. Arizona is sitting on top of the world, undefeated as of mid-January, but the sharks are circling. You’ve got a resurgent Michigan team under Dusty May that looks terrifying, and then there’s the usual suspects like UConn and Duke just lurking.
The Heavyweights at the Top
Arizona is the story. Period. They haven't just won; they’ve dismantled people. Tommy Lloyd has them playing a brand of basketball that feels like it’s being played at 1.5x speed. They’ve already knocked off Florida, UConn, and Alabama. That’s not a soft schedule. That’s a gauntlet.
But if you’re looking for the team that might actually be the "best," a lot of smart people are pointing toward Ann Arbor. Michigan at No. 4 in the AP Poll feels low to some, especially since they were undefeated until that weird slip-up against Wisconsin recently. Dusty May went into the portal and didn't just shop; he cleared the shelves. Bringing in Yaxel Lendeborg from UAB and Elliot Cadeau from UNC was a masterstroke.
Then you have Purdue.
It feels like Braden Smith has been in college for a decade, doesn't it? He’s back for his senior year, and he’s basically a coach on the floor. They aren't the biggest team anymore—losing Edey was always going to change their DNA—but with Trey Kaufman-Renn and Fletcher Loyer, they are just so hard to kill. They’re currently sitting at No. 5, and honestly, they could be No. 1 by Valentine's Day.
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Why the Big 12 is a Total Bloodbath
If you want to watch a conference where everyone just hits each other in the face for two months, look at the Big 12. Iowa State is currently ranked No. 2, and their defense is literally an elective in pain. Tamin Lipsey is still there, being a nuisance, and they added Joshua Jefferson. They did just lose to Kansas in a blowout, though, which shows you how volatile this year is.
Speaking of Kansas, they are the biggest enigma in the way too early top 25 basketball conversation. On paper? They’re loaded. Darryn Peterson is a generational talent at guard. But they’ve been inconsistent. One night they look like the 1996 Bulls, the next they’re struggling to find a rhythm against mid-majors.
- Houston: Still doing Houston things. Kelvin Sampson’s team is No. 7. Emanuel Sharp is the heart and soul, but the freshmen—Kingston Flemings and Chris Cenac Jr.—are the ones who will decide if this team finally breaks through to a title.
- BYU: AJ Dybantsa. That’s the tweet. He’s the highest-rated recruit in program history and he’s playing like it. BYU at No. 11 is a threat to anyone.
- Texas Tech: JT Toppin is a monster. He’s a double-double waiting to happen every single night.
The Teams Nobody is Giving Enough Credit To
Nebraska.
Yeah, you heard me. Nebraska is 18-0. They are ranked No. 8 in the country. Is it a fluke? Maybe. But they beat Illinois and Michigan State. At some point, we have to stop waiting for the floor to fall out from under them and just admit they’re good. They play a gritty, ugly style that ruins your Wednesday night.
Vanderbilt is also sitting at No. 10. Vanderbilt! In basketball! They’ve got some legit wins and are currently 16-2. It’s one of those years where the traditional hierarchies are just… skewed.
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The Duke and UConn Factor
UConn didn't get their three-peat, but Dan Hurley isn't going anywhere. They are No. 3 right now. Solo Ball has made the leap everyone expected, and Alex Karaban is still the most underrated "winning" player in the country. They play with a chip on their shoulder that is honestly kind of exhausting to watch if you're not a Huskies fan.
Duke is Duke. They are No. 6. Cooper Flagg is gone to the NBA, but the Boozer twins (Cameron and Cayden) have arrived. Cameron Boozer is already playing like an All-American. The scary thing about Duke this year is that they feel more balanced. They aren't just relying on one "supernova" freshman; they have depth and size with Patrick Ngongba in the middle.
What Actually Matters Moving Forward
Look, rankings in January are mostly just fuel for sports talk radio. What actually matters is the NET.
Arizona has six Quad 1 wins. That’s the gold standard. Meanwhile, a team like Miami (Ohio) is 19-0 but hasn't played a single Quad 1 game. They are the ultimate "bracket buster" candidate, but the committee is going to hate their resume if they trip up even once in conference play.
If you're trying to figure out who to put your money on for a Final Four run, look at roster continuity. In the NIL era, teams that kept their core—like Purdue and Iowa State—have a massive advantage over teams that are trying to gel five new transfers.
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The Reality Check
Is this way too early top 25 basketball list going to look the same in March? Absolutely not.
Injuries always happen. We already saw Michigan State take a hit with Kaleb Glenn. Someone is going to get hot in the Mountain West (keep an eye on Utah State and San Diego State) and wreck a high seed's season.
But right now, the power is in the Big Ten and the Big 12. The SEC has the most projected tournament teams (10!), but their top-end quality feels a little shakier than the Arizona/UConn/Michigan tier.
Actionable Insights for the Rest of the Season:
- Watch the Big 12 on Tuesday nights: It is the highest level of basketball on the planet outside of the NBA.
- Don't ignore the "mid-majors": Gonzaga is back in the top 10 (No. 9) and Graham Ike is playing like a First Team All-American.
- Monitor the Boozer twins: Duke’s ceiling depends entirely on how quickly these freshmen can handle the physicality of ACC play.
- Check the injury reports: In a year this balanced, losing one starter can drop a team from the Top 10 to the "Others Receiving Votes" category in a week.
The 2026 season is wide open. There is no dominant force like the 2024 UConn team. That makes for bad "predictive" journalism, but it makes for incredible television.