If you’ve lived in Central California long enough, you know the drill. You look at the Sierra snowpack, check the latest "atmospheric river" headlines, and then try to guess if the boat ramps at Barrett Cove will actually be usable by July. Right now, the water level lake mcclure is telling a story that most people are completely misreading.
Honestly, it’s easy to get confused. We spent years staring at "bathtub rings" and exposed skeletons of old trees. Now, suddenly, the news says California is 100% drought-free for the first time in a quarter-century.
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But does "drought-free" mean the lake is full? Not exactly.
As of January 14, 2026, Lake McClure is sitting at an elevation of roughly 814.7 feet MSL. To put that in perspective, that is more than 70 feet above the "full pool" mark of 741.79 feet. Wait—how does a lake get "above" full? This is where the technical stuff gets kinda interesting.
The lake has a total storage capacity of about 1,032,000 acre-feet. When you hear the Merced Irrigation District (MID) talk about "full pool," they are often referring to the conservation storage—the water they’re allowed to keep for farmers and power. Right now, the reservoir is looking beefy. It’s sitting at about 138% of its historical average for mid-January.
The Great Snowpack Deception
You might see the high water levels and think we're set for the year.
Don't be so sure.
There is a weird phenomenon happening this winter that meteorologists are calling a "snow drought." Even though we've had a ton of rain—some spots in California hit 200% of their normal precipitation this month—it has been exceptionally warm.
The Merced River watershed is getting soaked, but it's getting soaked with rain, not snow.
Why does that matter for the water level lake mcclure? It changes everything for the summer. Normally, the snowpack acts like a slow-release battery. It melts in May and June, keeping the lake topped off just as the triple-digit heat hits the Central Valley. Without that frozen "bank account" in the high Sierras, the water we have now is basically all we’re getting.
The MID has to play a dangerous game of Tetris with the New Exchequer Dam. They have to leave enough room in the lake to catch potential floodwaters from spring storms, but they can't let too much out, or the growers in Merced County won't have enough to irrigate their almonds and sweet potatoes in August.
Why the Ramps Are a Moving Target
If you’re planning a trip, the "current level" is only half the battle. You need to know which ramps are actually touching the water.
Lake McClure is notoriously steep. When the water drops even twenty feet, certain facilities just vanish. As of this week:
- Barrett Cove South Ramp is good to go.
- McClure Point and Horseshoe Bend are operational.
- Bagby, way up at the inlet, is the "canary in the coal mine." It's often the first to close when levels dip, but it's currently open thanks to the recent January surges.
Keep in mind that the MID often closes swim lagoons and certain marina services in the winter regardless of the water level. It's a staffing thing, not a "dry lake" thing.
What the Experts Are Watching
I was looking at some data from the National Weather Service's Southeast River Forecast Center. They’re tracking a La Niña pattern that’s making the rest of 2026 look... well, "highly variable" is the polite way of saying "unpredictable."
The Merced Irrigation District Board recently set the surface-water rate at $50 per acre-foot for the 2026 season. They wouldn't do that if they were panicked about supply. They’ve actually been pushing for a "Storage Enhancement" project to raise the spillways at New Exchequer.
If that goes through, they could tuck away another 57,000 acre-feet of water. That’s a massive buffer for the dry years that we all know are eventually coming back.
Navigating Lake McClure This Year
If you're heading out there, don't just trust a map you printed three years ago. The shoreline changes so fast it'll make your head spin.
The water is currently around 54°F. That’s cold. Like, "don't-fall-in-without-a-wetsuit" cold. But for fishermen, this is the sweet spot. The higher water levels have submerged a lot of new brush and "structure" along the banks.
Bass love this.
They’re hiding in the flooded oaks and willows that were dry land just two years ago. If you can find where the old shoreline meets the new water, you're going to have a good day.
Actionable Advice for Your Trip
Stop checking the "percentage full" and start checking the elevation.
- Check the 24-hour change: If the lake is rising more than a few inches a day, the debris (logs, sticks, random trash) can be brutal. Watch your prop.
- Monitor the Exchequer Dam releases: If the MID is dumping water to make room for rain, the river downstream gets dangerous fast.
- Download a topo map: Because the water level lake mcclure is so high right now, a lot of "islands" are now underwater hazards.
The bottom line? We are in a rare window of abundance. The lake is healthy, the "drought" is technically over, and the Merced River is flowing strong. Just don't let the full reservoir fool you into thinking the Sierras are full of snow. They aren't. Enjoy the high water while it's here, because in California, the next dry spell is always just one "warm winter" away.
Before you hook up the trailer, call the MID recreation office at 209-722-2720 for the morning-of update on ramp conditions. Log onto the California Water Watch portal to see how the Merced compares to the rest of the state's "Big 10" reservoirs—it’s currently outperforming almost all of them.