You’ve seen the photos on Instagram. A guy is leaning against a steering wheel, wearing a steel Patek Philippe Nautilus that costs more than the car. Or maybe it’s a GMT-Master II "Pepsi" gleaming under dealership lights. It looks like everyone is winning the lottery. But walk into an authorized dealer (AD) in London, New York, or Geneva today and ask for that same watch. They’ll smile, offer you a glass of sparkling water, and politely tell you that you’re essentially invisible.
This is the reality of the watch have and have nots.
It isn't just about money anymore. In the 90s, if you had twenty grand, you had a gold Day-Date. Period. Today, having the cash is merely the entry fee to a game where the rules are rewritten every time a TikTok trend goes viral. We are living through a bizarre bifurcation of the market where "available" and "attainable" have become two entirely different concepts.
The Brutal Reality of the Gentry vs. the Waitlist
The watch have and have nots divide starts at the front door of the boutique. On one side, you have the "VVIPs." These are the folks who spent years buying the jewelry, the slow-selling dress watches, and the entry-level steel pieces they didn't really want just to build "spend history." They get the text message when a white-dial Daytona hits the safe. They pay the $15,100 retail price.
Then there’s everyone else.
If you're a "have not" in the eyes of the boutique, you're looking at a secondary market where that same Daytona is $30,000. It’s a 100% markup just for the privilege of not being ignored. This creates a psychological wall. The "have nots" aren't necessarily poor; many are wealthy professionals who simply refuse to play the "relationship building" game with a 24-year-old sales associate who wants them to buy three Tudor Rangers before they can see a Submariner.
Honestly, it’s exhausting.
The industry calls it "desirability management." Critics call it artificial scarcity. Whether it’s real or manufactured, the result is a fragmented community where the watch you wear serves as a barcode for your social persistence or your willingness to overpay.
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What's Actually Driving the Shortage?
It's easy to blame "the algorithms." But the truth is more mechanical. Rolex produces roughly one million watches a year. That sounds like a lot until you realize there are roughly 56 million millionaires globally. The math doesn't work. Even if Rolex doubled production, the "have nots" would still outnumber the "haves" by a staggering margin.
Then you have the gray market dealers.
Places like Chrono24 and Bob’s Watches are the pressure valves of the industry. They are where the watch have and have nots trade places. A "have" might flip their retail-acquired GMT for a $10,000 profit. A "have not" pays that premium to skip the three-year wait. It’s a cycle fueled by the "Leica-fication" of watches—turning tools into Veblen goods.
The Hidden Cost of the "Entry Level"
Think about the Omega Moonwatch. Ten years ago, you could snag a Speedmaster Professional for under $4,000. It was the great equalizer. Now, after several price hikes and a move toward "luxury positioning," the retail price is pushing $8,000.
The floor is rising.
This is pushing the "have nots" further down the ladder. People who used to save up for a Longines are now looking at Seiko. People who looked at Seiko are checking out microbrands like Baltic or Christopher Ward. There’s no shame in it—in fact, many enthusiasts argue that the "have nots" are actually having more fun because they aren't terrified of scratching a "liquid asset."
The Rolex Effect and the Death of the "One-Watch" Guy
The concept of the "one-watch collection" is dying. It used to be that a guy got a Submariner for his 30th birthday and wore it until he died. Now, that Submariner is a "piece." It’s part of a portfolio. Because the watch have and have nots are defined by access, the people who do have access tend to hoard.
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Why sell?
If you know you can't get another one at retail, you keep it. This creates a stagnant "have" class. They hold onto watches they don't even like that much because the replacement cost is too high. Meanwhile, the "have nots" are left fighting over the crumbs of the vintage market, which has its own set of landmines—franken-watches, polished-to-death cases, and service dials that ruin the value.
Why "Micro-Flexing" is the New Strategy
The savvy "have nots" have stopped crying about Rolex. They've moved on. There is a massive rise in what people call "Intellectual Watchmaking." This is where you buy a watch that doesn't have the crown logo but has a movement that would make a Patek owner sweat.
- Nomos Glashütte: Bauhaus design, in-house calibers, under $4k.
- Grand Seiko: Finishing that beats Rolex any day of the week, but still "if you know, you know."
- Cartier: The Tank and Santos have managed to stay (mostly) available while remaining incredibly cool.
This shift is actually healthy. It breaks the monoculture. When everyone is chasing the same four steel sports watches, the hobby gets boring. The watch have and have nots divide is actually forcing people to develop a personality. You can't just buy your way into "cool" at the local boutique anymore; you have to actually research what makes a watch good.
Is the Bubble Finally Popping?
We’ve seen prices on the secondary market dip over the last 18 months. The "crypto bros" who were buying Royal Oaks with Dogecoin profits have exited the building. Does this mean the watch have and have nots gap is closing?
Kinda. But not really.
The truly desirable stuff—the Patek 5711s, the Tiffany-stamped dials, the "Le Mans" Daytonas—those aren't coming down to Earth. They are the new Fine Art. You don't "use" them; you curate them. The middle class of watches (the $5,000 to $15,000 range) is where the real movement is happening. That's where the "have nots" are finally finding some breathing room as speculators flee for safer investments.
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The Problem With "Buying What You Like"
Everyone gives this advice. "Just buy what you like!" It's the biggest lie in the industry. Why? Because most people "like" what they see on the wrists of successful people. We are mimetic creatures. If you're a "have not," you're constantly told to ignore the hype, but the hype is what defines the era.
Ignoring a Rolex Submariner is like trying to ignore a Porsche 911. Sure, there are other cars, but the 911 is the 911.
Actionable Steps for the Modern Collector
If you find yourself on the "have not" side of the fence, don't despair. The market is actually in a better spot for buyers now than it was in 2022. You just need a different playbook.
First, stop the "spend history" nonsense. Don't buy a $3,000 pair of earrings for your wife just to get on a list for a $10,000 watch. You've already spent $13,000. Just go to a reputable gray market dealer, pay the $14,000 for the watch you actually want, and save yourself the two-year headache. Time is money.
Second, look at "Neo-Vintage." The 1990s and early 2000s are the sweet spot right now. You get modern reliability with classic proportions. A 5-digit Rolex reference (like the 16710) wears significantly better than the modern "super case" versions, and while they aren't cheap, they aren't subject to the same "boutique games."
Third, embrace the independents. Brands like Oris, Sinn, and even higher-end makers like H. Moser & Cie offer a level of connection to the craft that the big "luxury groups" have lost. When you buy a Sinn, you're buying a tool built by engineers in Frankfurt. When you buy a "hyped" watch, you're buying a marketing budget.
Ultimately, the watch have and have nots dynamic isn't going away. It’s just moving into a new phase. The "haves" will always have the shiny new toys, but the "have nots" who actually care about horology are the ones who end up with the more interesting collections.
Stop checking the prices every day. Wear your watch. Scratches add character, and character is the one thing the boutiques can't sell you.
How to Navigate the Market Right Now:
- Identify your true "why": Are you buying for the gram or for the gear? If it's for the gear, 90% of the market is open to you.
- Vet your dealers: If buying secondary, use sites like WatchCharts to see real-time pricing trends so you don't overpay during a temporary spike.
- Go to a "RedBar" meet: The best way to move from "have not" to "have" is through the community. Seeing watches in person prevents expensive mistakes.
- Forget the "Investment" angle: Unless you're playing at the $100k+ level, a watch is a depreciating asset or, at best, a store of value. Treat it like a hobby, not a hedge fund.