Honestly, if you've lived in the District for more than a week, you know the drill. You check the washington d c weather forecast in the morning, dress for a literal tundra, and by 3:00 PM, you're carrying your parka down K Street because it’s suddenly 50 degrees and humid. It’s a mess.
Right now, as we sit in the middle of January 2026, the city is caught in one of those classic "mid-Atlantic mood swings." This morning, Friday, January 16, we woke up to a crisp 23°F, but it feels a lot more like 14°F thanks to an 8 mph wind coming off the Potomac. If you're heading out to Grab a coffee at Tryst or commuting into the Hill, you're going to feel that bite.
The weekend "Wintry Mix" trap
Every time the forecast mentions "rain and snow," the grocery stores in Logan Circle look like they’re preparing for the end of days. Let's look at what's actually coming. Today is staying mostly cloudy with a high of 37°F. Nothing crazy. But tonight is when things get interesting—a 45% chance of a rain and snow mix.
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Saturday, January 17, is going to be one of those damp, "gray-D.C." days. We’re looking at a high of 45°F, which sounds warm, but with a 35% chance of snow and rain during the day, it’s basically just slush territory.
- Friday High: 37°F
- Friday Low: 23°F
- Saturday High: 45°F
- Saturday Low: 34°F
Then Sunday brings a little "light snow" back into the picture. Don't expect to go sledding at the National Mall just yet; it’s a 25% chance of light flakes with a high of 35°F. Most of it probably won't even stick to the pavement because the ground has been so back-and-forth lately.
Why the Arctic Outbreak is the real story
While everyone is obsessing over the weekend flurries, the National Weather Service is dropping hints about something way more serious for next week. There's an Arctic outbreak brewing. By Monday night, we're talking about lows dropping into the single digits to low teens.
Monday, January 19—Martin Luther King Jr. Day—starts out sunny with a high of 38°F, but once the sun goes down, the bottom falls out. We are looking at a low of 14°F. Tuesday is even more brutal: a high of only 25°F. That is the kind of cold that makes your face hurt.
The 2026 winter trend is... weird
Historically, January in D.C. averages a high of 43°F and a low of 29°F. This year? We've been bouncing between the mid-40s and the teens like a ping-pong ball. According to the latest data from the National Weather Service Baltimore/Washington office, we're seeing an increase in these "high-variability" winters.
Some people blame the weak La Niña that's been lingering, though its signal is fading as we head toward spring. Basically, we’re getting the "Atlantic Corridor" special: cold enough to be miserable, but not consistently snowy enough to be pretty.
How to survive the next 10 days
If you’re trying to plan your life around the washington d c weather forecast, here’s the reality.
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- Layer up for Monday/Tuesday. That Arctic air is the real deal. If you have outdoor pipes, maybe think about those covers now.
- Watch the Saturday morning commute. Even if it doesn't snow, that 34°F low overnight means the bridges over the Anacostia could be slick with "black ice."
- Don't trust the sun. Monday looks gorgeous and sunny, but that west wind at 13 mph is going to make it feel like 20°F all day long.
It's tempting to think we're out of the woods because we had a few warm days in December, but January always finds a way to remind us where we are. Honestly, just keep the boots by the door until at least March.
Your Action Plan:
Check your tire pressure this weekend. Rapid drops in temperature—like the one we’re seeing from Saturday’s 45°F to Monday’s 14°F—will trigger those annoying dashboard lights. Also, if you’re planning on visiting the museums on MLK Day, dress in three layers; the wind tunnels between the Smithsonian buildings are no joke during an Arctic outbreak.