The energy feels different when the Golden State Warriors and Minnesota Timberwolves share a court these days. It used to be a scheduled win for Steph Curry and company. Not anymore. Honestly, watching these two teams go at it in the 2025-26 season has been like watching a changing of the guard, but the old guard is still swinging a very heavy hammer.
If you haven’t been following closely, the Warriors vs Timberwolves this season matchup has become one of the most tactical, and frankly, petty rivalries in the Western Conference. We’re talking about a Minnesota squad that finally believes they are the "big brothers" and a Golden State team that is trying to prove their dynasty isn't a museum exhibit just yet.
The December 12th Thriller at Chase Center
The December 12, 2025, game was a perfect microcosm of where these two franchises stand. Minnesota walked into San Francisco and escaped with a 127-120 win, but the score doesn't tell the whole story. Steph Curry was absolutely cooking, dropping 39 points and making the Target Center-south (as Wolves fans like to joke) go silent for stretches. But the fourth quarter was a disaster for the Dubs.
Minnesota is just too big.
Rudy Gobert was 6-for-6 in that final frame. Every time Golden State tried to mount a run, the Wolves would just throw the ball near the rim, and Gobert would either dunk it or tip it out to Jaden McDaniels. It's a frustrating way to lose. You play perfect defense for 22 seconds, then a 7-foot-1 Frenchman just reaches over everyone.
Why the Playoffs Still Haunt This Matchup
You can't talk about Warriors vs Timberwolves this season without mentioning the 2025 Western Conference Semifinals. It’s the elephant in the room. Minnesota took that series in five games, and they did it while Steph Curry was dealing with that nagging injury.
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Julius Randle was the surprise hero of that series. Most people forget he averaged 25.2 points against the Warriors in those five games. He’s been a matchup nightmare for Steve Kerr because if you put a small guy on him, he bullies them, and if you put Draymond Green on him, it opens up the lane for Anthony Edwards.
- Game 1: Warriors 99, Timberwolves 88 (The last time GSW looked in control)
- Game 2: Timberwolves 117, Warriors 93 (The blowout that shifted the vibe)
- Game 5: Timberwolves 121, Warriors 110 (The clincher)
Draymond Green hasn't exactly been quiet about his thoughts on Rudy Gobert either. The beef is legendary. Draymond finished that playoff series shooting only 27.6% from three-point range, while Gobert shot 64% from the field. It’s a clash of styles that makes for incredible television, even if the "advanced stats" crowd and the "eye test" crowd can't agree on who's actually better.
Anthony Edwards vs Stephen Curry: The Statistical Reality
Everyone wants to see the 1v1.
Anthony Edwards is basically a human highlight reel at 24 years old. This season, he’s averaging around 28.9 points per game, which is almost identical to Steph’s 28.8. It’s eerie. But they get their points so differently. Steph is still the king of the "gravity" effect, shooting over 40% from deep and forcing the Wolves to blitz him at the logo.
Edwards is just a freight train. He’s getting to the line nearly 8 times a game. When these two teams play, the Warriors' defensive strategy is basically "hope he misses at the rim," because nobody on the roster can actually stay in front of him for 48 minutes.
The Roster Depth Gap
The Wolves are currently sitting at 4th in the West (27-14) while the Warriors are hovering around the play-in at 8th (23-19). The difference is the bench. Minnesota has Naz Reid. Honestly, Naz Reid might be the most underrated "Warriors killer" in the league. He dropped 52 points across that 5-game playoff series coming off the bench.
Golden State is leaning heavily on Buddy Hield and Jonathan Kuminga, but the consistency just isn't there. When Steph goes to the bench, the offense tends to stall. Minnesota doesn't have that problem as much because Mike Conley is still out here playing like a 25-year-old at age 38, keeping the second unit organized.
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What to Watch for in the March Matchup
The next time these two meet is March 13, 2026, back at Chase Center. This is going to be massive for seeding. If the Warriors want to avoid the play-in tournament, they basically have to win the season series against teams like Minnesota.
Keep an eye on the "points in the paint" stat. In their matchups so far, Minnesota is averaging over 50 points in the paint compared to Golden State’s 42. If the Warriors can't find a way to stop the bleeding inside, it doesn't matter how many triples Steph and Buddy hit.
Actionable Insights for Fans and Bettors
- Watch the Rebound Margin: Minnesota is currently 1st in the league in total rebounds per game (54.1). If the Warriors are within 5 rebounds by the fourth quarter, they usually win. If they’re down by 10+, it’s over.
- The Draymond Factor: Draymond's defensive EPM (+2.4) is actually higher than Gobert's (+1.8) this year, despite what the box score says. His impact is in the passing lanes, not the blocks.
- Live Betting Tip: If Minnesota starts slow, don't panic. They have a +5.0 average score margin, often pulling away in the late third quarter when the Warriors' older legs start to give out.
The rivalry is no longer just about Steph’s greatness vs Minnesota’s "potential." The potential is gone; the Wolves are a powerhouse. Now, it’s about whether the Warriors can find one last trick to pull out of their bag before the window closes for good.
To stay ahead of the curve on this matchup, track the injury reports for the back-to-back games in late January. Minnesota's depth makes them much more resilient to short-term injuries than the Warriors, who rely heavily on their starting five to maintain a positive plus-minus.