It is -20°C in Kyiv right now. Think about that. That is -4°F. At that temperature, if your radiator stops working, your pipes don't just leak—they shatter.
Basically, this is the reality of the war with russia news that isn't making enough headlines. We aren't just talking about trenches and drones anymore. We are talking about "thermal terror."
Russia has shifted its strategy. They aren't trying to knock out the whole national power grid in one go like they used to. Now, they are going for "localized collapse." They’re hitting district heating plants right inside the cities. You can reroute electricity from another province, but you can’t reroute steam and hot water through frozen ground.
The Frontline Reality: 1.2 Million and Counting
Honestly, the numbers are getting hard to process. Valery Gerasimov, the Russian Chief of the General Staff, claimed just yesterday that his forces are moving forward in "virtually all directions." He says they took 300 square kilometers in the first two weeks of January 2026 alone.
Is he lying? Maybe a little. But the independent data from groups like the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) shows he isn’t entirely wrong. Russia is inching forward. It’s slow. It’s painful. But it’s happening.
Here is the cost:
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- Russian Casualties: Some estimates, including a recent one from ex-CIA Director William Burns, put the number at 1,100,000 killed or injured.
- Ukrainian Casualties: Around 400,000, though these numbers are always contested.
- Equipment: Russia has lost nearly 14,000 tanks and armored vehicles.
You’ve probably heard about the Oreshnik missile by now. It’s that new intermediate-range ballistic missile Russia fired at Lviv on the night of January 8. It hit a defense plant. Dmitry Medvedev—who is still using his English-language X account to make threats—basically said they’d use it on any NATO troops that dare to set foot in Ukraine.
The Trump-Putin Dynamics
Politics is messy. In Washington, the vibes have shifted. President Donald Trump has been pushing his 20-point peace plan, and he’s been pretty vocal about it. He claims that if he weren't involved, "Russia would have all of Ukraine right now."
But there is a massive disconnect.
Trump is meeting with leaders like Emmanuel Macron and Keir Starmer—they just signed the Paris Declaration on January 6—but Putin doesn't seem to be biting. The Kremlin is using the idea of negotiations to buy time. They are waiting for the West to get tired.
Meanwhile, Trump is distracted by Greenland. Yeah, you read that right. He’s back on the "we should buy Greenland" train because he’s worried Russia or China will take it first. It sounds like a side quest, but it’s actually stressing out the NATO alliance at a time when they need to be focused on the East.
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Hybrid Warfare: The War You Don't See
While the tanks are grinding through the mud in the Donbas, a different kind of war is hitting Europe. It’s called hybrid warfare.
Basically, Putin knows he can’t fight all of NATO in a fair fight. So, he’s trying to break them from the inside.
- Subversion: Using AI-generated content to mess with elections in Germany and France.
- Sabotage: There have been weird "accidents" at European factories and warehouses lately.
- Coercion: Threatening to cut off what's left of the energy supply every time a new aid package is announced.
The goal is simple: make it too expensive and too annoying for the average person in Berlin or Paris to care about Ukraine anymore.
Why Russia Won't Stop
You’d think a million casualties would be enough to make anyone quit. But Putin has a weird economic incentive to keep going.
Right now, the Russian economy is basically a "war machine" economy. About 40% of their entire government budget is going toward the military. If the war stops tomorrow, they have millions of soldiers coming home to no jobs and a bunch of factories that have no one to sell to.
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Ending the war would reveal the ruin. So, they keep the gears turning. They’ve added 800,000 workers to their defense industry in the last three years. It’s a bubble, but it’s a bubble they are terrified to pop.
What Happens Next?
If you are looking for a silver lining, it’s hard to find one in the mud of January. But there are specific moves being made:
- The "Shadow Fleet" Crackdown: The UK is finally looking at legal ways to board and detain those mystery tankers that carry sanctioned Russian oil. If they can actually choke the cash flow, the war machine slows down.
- Air Defense Surge: The NATO Parliamentary Assembly just sent an open letter begging for more Patriots and air-to-air missiles. They know that if they can't protect the heating plants, the cities will empty out.
- The Lynx Arrives: German-made Lynx infantry vehicles are finally hitting the ground this month. They are a big step up from the old Soviet gear.
Actionable Steps to Stay Informed
Don't just scroll through doom-posts. If you want to actually track the war with russia news without getting lost in propaganda, do this:
- Watch the "DeepState" Map: It’s one of the most accurate Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) tools available. It updates almost daily with geolocated footage.
- Follow the Energy Markets: Russia's ability to fight is tied directly to the price of a barrel of Urals crude. If it stays below $40, they have a massive problem.
- Look at Localized Reports: Instead of general "war" news, look for updates on specific cities like Pokrovsk or Huliaipole. That's where the actual shift in the front is happening right now.
The next few months are going to be about endurance. Russia is betting on the cold and Western boredom. Ukraine is betting on technology and staying power. It's a grim math, but it's the only math that matters right now.