Waikiki is a vibe, but the weather can be a bit of a trickster if you’re just looking at the little icons on your phone. You see a cloud with a raindrop and think, "Great, my vacation is ruined."
Stop.
That is almost never how it works in Honolulu. If you are checking the 14 day weather forecast Waikiki right now, you need to understand the rhythm of the islands before you decide to spend your whole afternoon inside the Ala Moana Center.
Right now, as of mid-January 2026, we are looking at a classic winter pattern. But "winter" in Hawaii isn't about parkas; it's about the dance between the northeast trade winds and the occasional "Kona" storm that sneaks in from the west.
The Real Breakdown: Your 14 Day Weather Forecast Waikiki
Honolulu is currently sitting in a pretty sweet spot. Today, Friday, January 16, we’re seeing a high of 74°F with mostly sunny skies. It’s breezy, though. Those northeast winds are kicking at 19 mph, which keeps the humidity at a comfortable 55%. If you’re down on the sand, that wind feels amazing, but it might toss your umbrella if you haven't anchored it properly.
Looking ahead through the next two weeks, here is the actual flow of what you can expect.
The weekend looks stellar. Saturday and Sunday (Jan 17–18) will see highs creeping up to 76°F and 77°F. We’ve got some "passing showers" in the forecast, particularly on Saturday night. This is what locals call "blessing" rain. It hits for five minutes, creates a rainbow over Diamond Head, and vanishes before you can even find your flip-flops.
The Shift Around January 21
Things get a little more interesting by next Wednesday. The wind is going to shift. We're moving away from those cooling trades and seeing a "Southwest" or "Kona" wind pattern.
When the wind comes from the southwest, the humidity spikes. On Wednesday, January 21, the chance of rain jumps to 35%–40% with a high of 77°F. This is the part of the 14 day weather forecast Waikiki where you might actually see some sustained light rain.
Late January Outlook
By the time we hit the weekend of January 24, the forecast is calling for more significant rain—around a 70% chance. Temperatures will hold steady in the high 70s, but you’ll want a backup plan for Saturday.
The good news? By Sunday, January 25, the rain is expected to clear out in the evening, leaving us with a beautiful, clear night and a low of 69°F.
Humidity, UV, and the Things Your App Doesn't Tell You
Most people focus on the temperature. Honestly, in Waikiki, the temperature is the most boring part of the weather because it almost always stays between 66°F and 78°F this time of year.
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What actually matters is the UV Index. Even on a "mostly sunny" day like today, the UV index is sitting at 5. That is high. If you are coming from a winter climate where the sun hasn't touched your skin in months, you will burn in 20 minutes. I’ve seen it happen to a thousand tourists. Don't be the person with the "Waikiki lobster" tan on day two.
Water Temperatures
The Pacific is currently around 75°F to 77°F. It’s warmer than the air in the early morning! If you’re looking at the 14 day weather forecast Waikiki and seeing those 66°F lows, don't worry about being cold. The ocean acts like a giant battery, holding onto the summer heat.
Packing for the "Waikiki Winter"
Since we’re looking at a mix of sunny days and a few "wet" days toward the end of the month, your packing list needs to be tactical.
- Light Rain Shell: Not a heavy jacket. Just something breathable for those January 21–24 showers.
- The "Evening Layer": When it drops to 67°F at night with a 20 mph wind, it actually feels "chilly" to someone in a tank top.
- Reef-Safe Sunscreen: It’s the law here, and your skin needs it even if it looks cloudy.
Why the Forecast "Lies"
Weather models like the GFS or ECMWF struggle with Hawaii’s topography. Waikiki sits in the "rain shadow" of the Koolau Mountains. Often, it will be pouring in Manoa Valley (just three miles away) while the sun is out on Kalakaua Avenue.
If your app says "100% chance of rain," it usually means 100% of the island will see rain at some point, not that it will rain on you all day.
Actionable Tips for Your Trip
- Morning is King: In the current 14-day cycle, the clearest skies are almost always between 7:00 AM and 11:00 AM. Get your beach time in early.
- Watch the Wind: If the forecast says "Southwest" or "Kona" winds (like Jan 21), expect it to be "muggy." This is the best time to go into the air-conditioned museums or do some shopping.
- The "North Shore" Rule: If Waikiki is calm, the North Shore is likely seeing those massive winter swells. Check the surf report alongside the 14 day weather forecast Waikiki if you plan on driving up to see the big waves.
- Trust the Trade Winds: As long as the wind is coming from the "Northeast" (like it is today), the weather will generally be pleasant, even if there are clouds.
Basically, the next two weeks in Waikiki look like a classic Hawaiian winter: mostly gorgeous, a little windy, and one or two days where Mother Nature reminds you that the islands are a tropical rainforest.
Keep an eye on the transition around January 21. That’s the pivot point for this 14-day window. If you're planning a boat tour or a long hike at Diamond Head, aim for the 17th or 18th. They look like the gems of the month.