WA HS Football Rankings: Why RPI and Media Polls Rarely Agree

WA HS Football Rankings: Why RPI and Media Polls Rarely Agree

High school football in Washington isn't just a weekend pastime. It's a chaotic, beautiful mess of rain-soaked turf, bracket math, and communities that live and die by Friday night results. If you’ve ever refreshed the WIAA website at midnight only to find a team you know is better sitting five spots lower than they should be, you're not alone.

Understanding wa hs football rankings is basically like trying to predict the weather in November—confusing, occasionally frustrating, and subject to change at any moment.

The State of the Field: Who Rules 4A and 3A?

Right now, the dust has finally settled on the 2025 season, and the rankings tell a wild story. At the top of the heap, Sumner and O’Dea are the names everyone is whispering about. Sumner basically cemented their legacy by grabbing a second consecutive Class 4A state title in a game that felt more like a heart-attack-inducing thriller than a football match. They took down Lake Stevens 41-35 in overtime.

Lance McGee. Remember that name. The Oregon State commit was the one who punched in the winning touchdown. It's plays like that which keep a team at No. 1 in the Power 25 while everyone else is left playing catch-up.

Then you’ve got the 3A powerhouse, O’Dea. They aren't flashy in the way some of the private schools try to be, but they are incredibly consistent. They pulled off a 21-14 comeback against an undefeated Mount Tahoma squad. Honestly, Mount Tahoma looked like the team to beat for most of the year, but O’Dea’s championship pedigree is just different.

✨ Don't miss: Red Sox vs Yankees: What Most People Get Wrong About Baseball's Biggest Feud

Small Town Giants: 2A through 1B

Don't let the big city schools hog the spotlight. Archbishop Murphy turned the 2A classification into their personal playground this year, going 13-0. They capped it off by handling Tumwater 35-20.

In 1A, it’s the Royal Knights' world and we’re all just living in it. They won their fifth consecutive state title. Think about that for a second. Five years of dominance. They beat Cashmere 21-20 in a game that came down to a failed two-point conversion with 18 seconds left. That is the definition of "wa hs football rankings" drama.

  • 4A Champions: Sumner Spartans
  • 3A Champions: O'Dea Fighting Irish
  • 2A Champions: Archbishop Murphy Wildcats
  • 1A Champions: Royal Knights
  • 2B Champions: Tri-Cities Prep Jaguars
  • 1B Champions: DeSales Fighting Irish

Why the Rankings Feel Like a Math Project

If you’re looking at the RPI (Ratings Percentage Index) and comparing it to the media polls from places like High School on SI or MaxPreps, you’ll notice they rarely match up perfectly.

The WIAA uses a specific RPI formula to help seed the playoffs. It’s 40% your winning percentage, 40% your opponents' winning percentage, and 20% your opponents' opponents' winning percentage. It’s cold. It’s calculated. It doesn’t care if your star quarterback was out with a flu or if you won by 50 points or 1 point. A win is a win.

🔗 Read more: OU Football Depth Chart 2025: Why Most Fans Are Getting the Roster Wrong

Media polls, on the other hand, are the "eye test." They factor in things the computer can't see, like how a team looks in the fourth quarter or the fact that a specific linebacker is a four-star recruit heading to the Pac-12.

The Tri-Cities Prep and DeSales Surprises

One of the coolest stories in the 2025 wa hs football rankings was the rise of Tri-Cities Prep in the 2B ranks. They finished 14-0, led by Jake Sherfey, who basically put the team on his back in the final against Toledo.

Over in the 8-man game (1B), DeSales finally broke through for their first state title in that format. They beat Liberty Christian 26-14 after falling behind early. It’s these smaller school rankings that often provide the most pure "football" moments because these kids are playing both ways and never leaving the field.

Breaking Down the Top 10 (Post-Season)

  1. Sumner (4A): The undisputed kings after that OT win.
  2. O’Dea (3A): Mastered the art of the comeback.
  3. Lake Stevens (4A): Still a powerhouse, just a few plays short.
  4. Mount Tahoma (3A): Proved they belong with the elite.
  5. Archbishop Murphy (2A): Perfect season, perfect ending.
  6. Graham-Kapowsin (4A): Always in the hunt, incredibly talented.
  7. Tumwater (2A): The gold standard of 2A football, even in a loss.
  8. Puyallup (4A): A massive bounce-back year for the Vikings.
  9. Gonzaga Prep (4A): The best of the Greater Spokane League.
  10. Chiawana (4A): Dominating the Mid-Columbia Conference once again.

What Most People Get Wrong About Strength of Schedule

You’ll hear fans complain that their team is ranked lower than a school with more losses. But look at the schedules. A team like Eastside Catholic or Bellevue often plays a brutal non-conference schedule against out-of-state giants. The RPI tries to account for this, but it’s not perfect.

💡 You might also like: NL Rookie of the Year 2025: Why Drake Baldwin Actually Deserved the Hardware

For out-of-state games, the WIAA defaults the opponent's winning percentage to .500. This is a huge point of contention. If you play a powerhouse from California and lose, the computer treats them like a mediocre local team. That’s why you’ll see teams like Bellevue or Camas "drop" in the computer rankings even when they are clearly top-tier programs.

Real Insights for Next Season

If you’re trying to track wa hs football rankings for the 2026 season, don’t just look at the record. Look at who is returning in the trenches.

Washington has become a factory for offensive linemen recently. Schools like Kennedy Catholic and Lake Stevens are consistently producing D1 talent. If a team is ranked high in August, check if they graduated their entire front five. If they did, that ranking is probably "legacy" bias and they might stumble early.

Also, keep an eye on the 2A/3A border. With the WIAA reclassification cycles, some schools move up or down based on enrollment. This shifts the balance of power overnight. A mid-tier 4A team moving down to 3A can suddenly become a top-3 contender.

Actionable Next Steps for Fans

Stop relying on just one source. To get the real picture of where a team stands, you should:

  • Check the WIAA RPI weekly once the season starts in September to see how the "math" sees your team for playoff seeding.
  • Follow local beat reporters on social media (people like those at the Tacoma News Tribune or The Seattle Times) because they see these teams in person.
  • Watch the "Opponents' Winning Percentage" (OWP). If your team is winning but the teams they beat are all 0-8, expect your ranking to crater in October.
  • Monitor the transfer portal (yes, even in HS). It’s the reality of modern football; top players move to where the exposure is, and that shifts the rankings faster than any coaching change.