So, you’re looking at the vornado realty trust stock price and wondering if it’s a genius-level value play or just a falling knife. Honestly, I get it. The stock is currently hovering around $33.58, which feels like a bargain compared to the glory days before the world decided "working from home" was the new permanent reality.
But here is the thing: Vornado isn't just a collection of buildings; it's basically a bet on the soul of New York City. Specifically, it's a bet on the PENN District and Midtown Manhattan. If you think people are done with offices, you’ve probably already written this one off. But if you’ve walked through the new PENN 2 lately, you might have a different take.
The Reality of the Numbers
Most people get hung up on the high-level ticker data. Right now, the 52-week range is sitting between $29.68 and $45.37. That’s some serious volatility for a REIT. Usually, these things are supposed to be boring income generators, but Vornado has been a bit of a roller coaster.
You've probably noticed the dividend. It’s a huge point of contention. Recently, they declared a common dividend of $0.74 per share. That puts the yield at roughly 2.1% to 2.2% depending on the day. For a REIT, that’s actually pretty low. Why? Because Steve Roth and the team are being incredibly disciplined with cash. They aren't just handing out money to make the yield look pretty; they are hoarding liquidity to handle debt and finish their massive development projects.
The market cap is sitting around $6.45 billion. It sounds like a lot until you realize the sheer value of their assets like the PENN 1 and PENN 2 towers.
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What the Analysts Are Whispering
If you look at the "Hold" ratings—and there are a lot of them, about 67% of analysts at the moment—it tells you that Wall Street is basically in a staring contest with the company. Nobody wants to be the first to jump in, but nobody wants to miss the bottom either.
Scotiabank recently set a price target of $36.00, while some of the more bullish folks like those at Fintel or Mizuho have tossed around targets as high as $39.78 or even $50.40 in the most optimistic scenarios. On the flip side, the bears are looking at a floor of $21.00 if the economy takes a hard left turn.
The New York "Landlord Market" Pivot
Here’s something most people miss. During the Q3 earnings call, Steve Roth basically said the "rotation from a tenant’s market to a landlord’s market" is finally happening in Class A Midtown office space. That sounds like typical CEO bravado, right? Well, the numbers back him up a bit.
Manhattan’s top-tier office vacancy has dropped to about 6.2%. Compare that to the city-wide average of over 13%, and you see the "flight to quality" is a real thing. If you own the shiny new buildings with the gyms and the roof decks, you’re winning. Vornado owns those buildings.
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- Leasing Momentum: They secured over 3.7 million square feet in leases through late 2025.
- The NYU Deal: They closed a massive 70-year master lease with NYU at 770 Broadway. NYU paid $935 million upfront. That is a massive cash infusion that basically saved the balance sheet in 2025.
- Occupancy Goals: Management expects Manhattan office occupancy to climb into the low 90s by the end of 2026.
The Debt Elephant in the Room
We have to talk about the debt. You can't ignore it. Vornado has about $7.9 billion in total debt. That sounds terrifying, and it's why the stock price isn't $60.
Just this month, on January 14, 2026, they closed a $500 million bond offering at a 5.75% coupon. They are using that money to pay off **$400 million** in notes that were due in June. Basically, they are kicking the can down the road, but they’re doing it at a manageable rate. They also just extended their $2 billion revolving credit facility.
Basically, they have plenty of "dry powder." They aren't going broke anytime soon, which was the big fear back in 2023.
Is the Vornado Realty Trust Stock Price Fairly Valued?
The trailing P/E ratio looks weirdly low—around 8.0x—because of that massive one-time gain from the NYU lease. If you strip that out, the earnings are much tighter.
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Actually, the real metric to watch is FFO (Funds From Operations). For 2026, analysts are looking for an FFO of about $2.44 per share. If they hit that, the stock starts looking very cheap at current levels. But if those tech and finance firms start another round of layoffs, that $2.44 starts to look like a fantasy.
Actionable Insights for Your Portfolio
If you're thinking about jumping in, don't just look at the ticker. Do these three things first:
- Check the "Flight to Quality" Trend: Follow the CRE (Commercial Real Estate) reports for Manhattan. If Class A vacancy rates stay low, Vornado wins. If they start ticking up, Vornado is in trouble.
- Monitor Interest Rates: REITs are sensitive to the Fed. If rates stay "higher for longer," Vornado’s debt refinancing gets more expensive.
- Look at the Penn District: This is their crown jewel. Watch for news about new tenants at PENN 1 and PENN 2. These buildings are the engine that will drive the stock back to $40.
Ultimately, Vornado is a high-conviction play. It's for people who believe New York is the center of the world and that high-end office space is the new luxury good. It’s not a safe bet, but the upside is there if the city keeps recovering the way it has over the last eighteen months.
Keep an eye on the next earnings report in February. That’s when we’ll see if the leasing momentum from 2025 has legs or if it was just a post-pandemic blip.
To get a better sense of how Vornado compares to its peers, you might want to look at SL Green (SLG) or Cousins Properties (CUZ). They are facing the same headwinds, but their balance sheets are structured differently, which can give you a good benchmark for what "normal" looks like in the current market.