You've probably heard the advice a thousand times: "Just buy the S&P 500 and go to sleep." It sounds easy. Boring, even. But when you actually sit down to look at the voo 10 year return, the reality of that "boring" advice is actually pretty wild. Most people expect a steady, uphill climb. They think they’re going to get a clean 10% every single year like clockwork.
That’s not how the market works. Not even close.
If you look back over the last decade, the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) hasn't just been a safe harbor; it's been a powerhouse. But the "average" return hides a lot of scars, some terrifying dips, and a few periods where everyone thought the party was finally over. Honestly, if you’re looking at your portfolio today and wondering if the next ten years can possibly match the last ten, you’re asking the right question.
The Raw Numbers Behind the VOO 10 Year Return
Let’s get the math out of the way first because numbers don't have feelings. As of early 2026, the trailing 10-year annualized return for VOO has hovered around the 12% to 13% mark.
Think about that.
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If you dropped $10,000 into this fund a decade ago and literally did nothing—didn't touch it, didn't panic-sell during the 2020 crash, didn't "take profits" when tech got bubbly—you’d be looking at roughly **$31,000 to $34,000** today. That is the power of compounding. It’s the closest thing to magic we have in the financial world.
But here’s the kicker: your actual experience of getting that return felt like a rollercoaster. You had to sit through the COVID-19 flash crash where the market fell 30% in a month. You had to stomach 2022, where the S&P 500 dropped nearly 20% and bonds—which were supposed to protect you—dropped too.
The voo 10 year return is a victory of endurance, not just a statistic.
Why This Specific ETF Is the Benchmark
Why do we talk about VOO and not just "the market"? Vanguard’s VOO is basically the gold standard for low-cost indexing. Its expense ratio is a measly 0.03%. That means for every $10,000 you invest, Vanguard only takes $3 a year to manage it.
Compare that to an old-school mutual fund charging 1% or 1.5%. Over ten years, that 1% fee eats a massive chunk of your gains. By choosing VOO, you’re essentially ensuring that you actually keep the returns the market gives you instead of handing them over to a guy in a suit in Manhattan.
The Big Tech Weighting Problem
We have to talk about the elephant in the room. The S&P 500 is market-cap weighted. This means the bigger the company, the more it influences the fund.
- Apple
- Microsoft
- Nvidia
- Amazon
- Alphabet (Google)
- Meta
These companies have driven a massive portion of the gains over the last decade. If you bought VOO, you weren't just betting on "the American economy." You were betting heavily on Silicon Valley. Some people call this a risk. Others call it an inevitable evolution of how the world works.
If tech slows down, the next voo 10 year return might look very different from the last one. It’s a reality many passive investors aren’t fully prepared for. They see the 13% average and think it’s a law of nature. It isn't. It's a reflection of a specific era of low interest rates and massive digital expansion.
Dividends: The Secret Sauce You’re Probably Ignoring
Most people just look at the price chart. That’s a mistake. A huge one.
VOO pays a dividend, usually around 1.3% to 1.6%. When you talk about the total voo 10 year return, you have to assume those dividends were reinvested. This is called "Total Return."
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If you took those quarterly dividend checks and spent them on coffee or rent, your portfolio would be significantly smaller today. DRIP (Dividend Reinvestment Plan) is the engine room of a long-term portfolio. Over a decade, reinvested dividends can account for nearly 20% of your total wealth accumulation. Don't leave that money on the table.
What Could Tank the Next Decade?
Let's be real for a second. The last ten years were, in many ways, an anomaly. We had years of near-zero interest rates. We had massive government stimulus. We had the AI boom.
Can it continue?
Valuations matter. The Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio of the S&P 500 is currently higher than its long-term historical average. When you buy VOO today, you are paying a premium for those future earnings. If earnings don't grow at the pace the market expects, or if inflation stays sticky, the "average" return for the next ten years might revert to the mean—closer to 7% or 8%.
That’s still good! It's just not the "get rich quick" 15% some people have started to expect.
How to Actually Use This Information
Knowing the voo 10 year return is useless if you don't have a plan. Investing isn't about finding the "best" fund; it's about finding the fund you can actually hold onto when things go south.
If you had $100k in VOO in early 2020, you saw it turn into $70k in a matter of weeks. Most people say they have a high risk tolerance until they see $30,000 vanish from their screen. If you sold then, your 10-year return was a disaster. If you bought more, you’re likely retired or very close to it now.
Your Actionable Strategy
Stop checking the price every day. It’s noise. It’s garbage.
- Automate your contributions. Whether it’s $50 or $5,000 a month, set it to buy VOO automatically. This is called dollar-cost averaging. You buy more shares when prices are low and fewer when they are high.
- Check your "Tax-Loss Harvesting" opportunities. If you hold VOO in a taxable account and the market dips, you can sometimes sell and immediately buy a similar (but not identical) fund to lock in a tax loss that offsets your income.
- Look at your "All-In" cost. Ensure you aren't paying a financial advisor 1% just to buy VOO for you. You can do this yourself on any brokerage app for free.
- Diversify outside the S&P 500. While the voo 10 year return has been dominant, there have been decades where international stocks or small-caps outperformed. Don't put 100% of your life savings in one basket, even if that basket is the 500 biggest companies in America.
The next ten years will happen whether you're invested or not. The S&P 500 has survived wars, stagflation, bubbles, and pandemics. It’s an index of survivors. Every year, the weak companies are kicked out and the strong ones are brought in. That’s why the long-term trend is up.
Stop overthinking it. Get your fees down, keep your head down, and let the companies do the work for you.