Honestly, if you spent any time watching the 2024 campaign ads in Virginia, you probably felt the exhaustion. The airwaves were packed. But when the dust finally settled on November 5, the virginia election results senate numbers told a story that many political insiders saw coming from a mile away.
Tim Kaine won. Again.
The Democratic incumbent secured his third term in the U.S. Senate, fending off a challenge from Republican Hung Cao. It wasn't particularly close, though it was closer than Kaine’s blowout 16-point victory back in 2018. This time around, Kaine maintained a comfortable 8.9% margin, finishing with roughly 54.4% of the vote compared to Cao’s 45.4%.
For a state that was once the ultimate battleground, these results feel like Virginia is settling into a very predictable rhythm. Kaine has now run for statewide office—Lieutenant Governor, Governor, and Senator—five times. He’s never lost. Basically, he's the closest thing to a "safe bet" in Virginia politics.
The Margin That Mattered
When you dig into the raw data from the Virginia Department of Elections, the scale of the victory becomes clear. Kaine pulled in 2,417,115 votes. Cao grabbed 2,019,911.
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That gap of nearly 400,000 votes is significant in a year where voter turnout actually dipped. Virginia saw its lowest overall turnout in a presidential cycle since 2000, hovering around 69.8%. Compare that to the 75% we saw in 2020. You've gotta wonder if "election fatigue" finally started hitting the Commonwealth.
The Geographic Divide
The map of the virginia election results senate looks exactly like you’d expect if you know the state’s "Two Virginias" dynamic.
Kaine dominated the "Urban Crescent"—the stretch from Northern Virginia (NOVA) down through Richmond and into Hampton Roads. In places like Fairfax County, the numbers were staggering. Kaine and Kamala Harris both cleared massive margins there, essentially cancelling out Cao's support in the rural southwest and the Shenandoah Valley.
- NOVA Power: Fairfax, Loudoun, and Prince William counties remain the Democratic engine of the state.
- Rural Red: Cao performed exceptionally well in places like Buchanan and Carroll counties, often clearing 70% or 80% of the vote.
- The Tipping Points: The suburban "swing" areas like Chesterfield and Henrico stayed blue, which basically shut the door on any Republican path to victory.
Hung Cao, a retired Navy captain, tried to bridge this gap by leaning into his military background and criticizing Kaine as a "career politician." He won the Republican primary easily in June with over 61% of the vote, but translating that MAGA-base energy into a statewide win in Virginia is a tall order.
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Money, Ads, and the "Podunk" Moment
Let's talk about the money. Because, man, there was a lot of it.
By the end of the cycle, Tim Kaine’s campaign had raised over $21.7 million. Hung Cao raised about $9.8 million. It’s hard to win a statewide race when you’re being outspent two-to-one, especially when your opponent has 30 years of name recognition.
But it wasn't just the cash. Cao had a few "stumble" moments that the Kaine campaign used effectively in ads. There was a specific incident where Cao referred to a local newspaper in Staunton as a "podunk local newspaper" run by "left-wing hacks." For voters in the Valley and rural parts of the state, that sort of talk can feel a bit dismissive. Kaine, who spent his early career as a fair housing lawyer and is known for his "low-key dad" vibe, capitalized on being the "steady hand."
Why This Race Stayed "Likely Democratic"
Most of the major prognosticators—Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections—kept this race at "Solid" or "Likely Democratic" the entire time. They weren't wrong.
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While Republicans had high hopes after Glenn Youngkin won the governorship in 2021, the federal-level environment in Virginia is just different. In 2024, Virginia voters showed they are perfectly comfortable with "split" feelings—they gave Trump more support than he got in 2020, but they still weren't ready to fire Tim Kaine.
Key Issues That Drove the Vote
- The Economy: This was the #1 issue for 40% of voters, according to AP VoteCast. Kaine leaned into the "Inflation Reduction Act," while Cao blamed Kaine for rising grocery prices.
- Abortion Rights: After the Dobbs decision, this became a massive motivator for Democratic turnout in the suburbs. Kaine made "protecting reproductive freedom" a cornerstone of his pitch.
- Immigration: This was a big winner for Cao in rural areas, where he hammered the Biden-Harris administration on border security.
What Happens Next for Virginia?
Now that the virginia election results senate are official and Kaine is headed back to D.C., the focus immediately shifts. In Virginia, we never stop campaigning.
We are already looking at the 2025 Governor's race. Since Virginia governors can't serve consecutive terms, Glenn Youngkin will be out. The Senate results suggest that while Virginia is "Blue" in federal races, the margins are narrow enough that a moderate Republican could still make a play for Richmond next year.
Next steps for Virginia voters:
- Verify your registration: If you moved recently or didn't vote in 2024, check your status at the Virginia Department of Elections website.
- Track the 2025 field: Keep an eye on potential candidates like Abigail Spanberger, who has already jumped in for the Democrats.
- Stay engaged locally: The 2024 results showed that local turnout (like the casino referendum in Petersburg) often lags behind big federal races, even though those local decisions hit your wallet faster.
The 2024 Senate race proved that Virginia isn't quite the "purple" state it used to be—it’s more like a blue state with a very loud, very red heart. Kaine’s win keeps the status quo in Washington, but the shifting margins in the suburbs are something both parties will be obsessing over for the next twelve months.