Virginia is weird. Honestly, if you look at a map of the virginia election results by county 2024, you might think you’re looking at two different planets that just happen to share a border. You have these massive, sprawling blue patches in the north and the tidewater, surrounded by a sea of deep, dark red that covers almost everywhere else.
It's a classic case of "land doesn't vote, people do," but even that doesn't tell the whole story this time around.
While the state stayed in the Democratic column for the fifth presidential cycle in a row, the ground shifted. It wasn't a landslide. It was a grind. Kamala Harris pulled out a victory with roughly 51.8% of the vote compared to Donald Trump’s 46.1%. That's a narrower margin than what Joe Biden managed in 2020. People keep calling Virginia a "blue state" now, but if you live here, you know it feels a lot more purple than the pundits like to admit.
The Northern Virginia Powerhouse
You can't talk about Virginia politics without talking about NOVA. It’s basically the engine room. If a Democrat doesn't come out of Fairfax, Arlington, and Alexandria with massive leads, they're cooked.
Fairfax County, the biggest prize in the state, delivered. Harris grabbed about 66% of the vote there. That sounds like a lot—and it is—but Trump actually picked up some steam compared to his 2020 performance. It’s a trend we saw across the country: urban and suburban strongholds staying blue but leaking a little bit of support.
Arlington and Alexandria were, as expected, total blowouts. We're talking margins of 78% to 19%. It’s hard for any Republican to overcome those kinds of numbers when they're combined with the sheer population density of the D.C. suburbs.
The Shift in Loudoun and Prince William
Loudoun County is always the one to watch. It’s wealthy, diverse, and has grown like crazy over the last decade. Harris won it with 56.6%, but the "red shift" was visible here too. Prince William County followed a similar path, going blue with 57.6%.
What’s interesting is that while these areas stayed Democratic, the "vibe" changed. Turnout was slightly lower than the 2020 highs, and that contributed to the closer statewide gap.
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The Red Wall in the Southwest and Central Virginia
Go west of Charlottesville or south of Richmond, and the map flips instantly. The virginia election results by county 2024 show a Republican "red wall" that is almost impenetrable.
In places like Tazewell County, Trump didn't just win; he dominated with 84.2% of the vote. It’s the same story in Wise County (81.4%) and Washington County (76.3%). These are areas where the Democratic platform basically doesn't land. The coal country and the rural farming communities feel a world away from the tech hubs of Ashburn or the Pentagon.
Why the "Red Wall" Matters
Even though these counties have smaller populations, they add up. When you win 80% of the vote in twenty different counties, you start to eat into that Northern Virginia lead pretty quickly.
- Bedford County: Trump took 74.8%.
- Augusta County: A solid 73.3% for the GOP.
- Rockingham County: 68% Republican.
These aren't just "wins"—they're blowouts. The rural-urban divide in Virginia is as wide as it's ever been, maybe wider.
The Battle of the Cities and the "Blue Islands"
The cities are Virginia’s blue islands. Richmond City went 82% for Harris. Charlottesville went 83.4%. Even in the middle of deep-red territory, the college towns and urban centers hold the line for Democrats.
But look at the independent cities in the Tidewater area. That’s where things get spicy.
Virginia Beach used to be a Republican stronghold. Then it flipped for Biden. In 2024, it stayed blue, but barely. Harris won it 50.7% to 48.0%. That’s a razor-thin margin. Chesapeake was another close one, with Harris taking 51.3%.
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The Richmond Suburbs: Chesterfield and Henrico
Chesterfield County is a fascinatng case study. For decades, it was the place where Republicans went to get their "suburban dad" votes. Not anymore. It went for Harris with 53.8%, actually outperforming the statewide shift in some ways. Henrico County was even more decisive at 63.7% for the Democrats.
If Republicans can't win back the Chesterfield suburbs, their path to winning statewide in Virginia is basically a cliff-climb.
Turnout: The Silent Storyteller
Here’s the thing: everyone expected massive turnout, but it was actually a bit lower than 2020.
The official turnout was around 70.5%. In 2020, it was over 75%.
Where did the voters go? Well, it depends on the county. In some of the deep blue areas, the drop-off was more noticeable. Meanwhile, in rural counties like Goochland and Powhatan, turnout stayed high—above 80% in some spots. When the "red" areas show up at higher rates than the "blue" areas, the margin shrinks. That’s exactly what happened here.
What Most People Get Wrong About Virginia
People look at the virginia election results by county 2024 and say, "Oh, Virginia is the new Maryland."
No, it's not.
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Virginia is much more like a smaller version of Pennsylvania or Michigan. You have three or four massive population hubs that lean heavily left, but the "rest" of the state—the geographic majority—is deeply conservative.
The reason Democrats keep winning the state isn't because the whole state is moving left; it's because the blue areas are growing in population while the red areas are stagnant or shrinking.
The Tim Kaine Factor
It’s also worth looking at the Senate race. Tim Kaine actually outperformed Harris in almost every county. He won his re-election against Hung Cao by about 9.5 points, while Harris only won by 5.7.
This tells us there’s a chunk of Virginia voters—maybe 3% or 4%—who are "split-ticket" voters. They might be tired of the national Democratic brand but still trust a known commodity like Kaine. Republicans who want to win in Virginia need to figure out how to talk to those people.
Actionable Insights for Following Virginia Politics
If you're trying to make sense of where the state goes from here, don't just look at the top-line numbers. Look at the margins in the "bellwether" counties.
- Watch Loudoun County: If the Democratic margin here drops below 10 points in a future election, the state is officially back in "toss-up" territory.
- Monitor Virginia Beach: This city is the pulse of the military and suburban middle class. Whichever way it leans usually dictates the "mood" of the state.
- Don't ignore the Southside: Localities like Danville and Martinsville are seeing small but interesting shifts. Even a 2% change in these areas can swing a close state race.
The 2024 results proved that Virginia isn't a "safe" harbor for anyone. It requires work. Democrats can't take the suburbs for granted, and Republicans can't rely solely on the rural vote if they want to cross the 50% finish line.
To stay ahead of the next cycle, keep an eye on the Virginia Department of Elections official certified reports. They provide the raw precinct data that shows exactly which neighborhoods are shifting. You can also track the VPAP (Virginia Public Access Project) for visual breakdowns of how demographics like age and income influenced these county results.
Understanding the "why" behind the map is the only way to predict what happens when the 2025 gubernatorial race kicks off.
Next Steps for You: 1. Check the specific precinct-level data for your home county on the Virginia Department of Elections website to see how your immediate neighbors voted.
2. Compare the 2024 results to the 2021 Governor's race (Youngkin vs. McAuliffe) to see how "swingy" your area actually is between presidential and state-level contests.