If you’ve been following La Liga this season, you know the table looks a bit weird. Usually, we expect the "big three" to just hog the sunlight, but Villarreal has decided to crash the party in a major way. Right now, sitting in 3rd place as of early 2026, the Yellow Submarine isn't just floating; they’re a legitimate problem for anyone with Champions League ambitions.
Especially for Athletic Club.
The history between these two isn't your typical "grudge match" built on proximity. It’s a clash of philosophies. On one side, you have the Basque titans—Athletic Club—who still play by their century-old rules of only using players with roots in the Basque Country. On the other, Villarreal, a club from a tiny town of 50,000 people that acts like a global scouting powerhouse.
When Villarreal vs Athletic Club shows up on the calendar, it’s usually a tactical chess match that ends in a 1-1 draw or a frantic 1-0. This season’s first meeting at the Estadio de la Cerámica back in September followed that script perfectly. Villarreal scraped a 1-0 win, and honestly, Athletic probably felt robbed.
Why the 1-0 Result in September Doesn't Tell the Whole Story
Football is cruel. You can dominate the ball, hit the woodwork, and still leave with nothing. That’s exactly what happened to Ernesto Valverde’s men.
Athletic Club looked like the better side for long stretches. Oihan Sancet had a double chance that looked like a certain goal, only for Villarreal’s keeper, Junior, to pull off a save that felt like it defied physics. Then you had Alejandro Rego rattling the crossbar in the final minutes.
But Marcelino, the Villarreal boss who—let’s not forget—coached Athletic to a Supercopa title not too long ago, knows his old team. He waited. He absorbed the pressure.
The breakthrough came from Alberto Moleiro in the 76th minute. Moleiro has been a revelation since arriving from Las Palmas. He’s not just a "flair" player anymore; he’s a finisher. He pounced on a loose ball in the box and that was it. Game over. Athletic had the "xG" (expected goals) advantage, but Villarreal had the three points.
The Evolution of the Yellow Submarine Under Marcelino
Villarreal is playing a brand of football right now that is terrifyingly efficient. They’ve moved away from the more ponderous, possession-heavy style of previous years. Now? They’re direct.
- The Solomon-Mikautadze Connection: This is the heart of their success. Manor Solomon (on loan from Spurs) and Georges Mikautadze have developed this weird, almost psychic understanding.
- The "Moleiro" Factor: Alberto Moleiro is currently their leading man. He’s already bagged 8 goals this season. For a midfielder/winger hybrid, those are elite numbers.
- Tactical Flexibility: Marcelino has them switching between a 4-4-2 and a 4-2-3-1 seamlessly. They can sit deep and counter with Nicolas Pépé’s pace, or they can control the tempo through the veteran Dani Parejo.
One thing people get wrong about Villarreal is thinking they are "lucky" to be 3rd. Look at their home record. They’ve turned the Cerámica into a fortress, winning 8 out of 10 home games this season. That’s not luck. That’s a system.
Athletic Club: More Than Just the Williams Brothers
Whenever a commentator talks about Athletic Club, they spend 90% of the time talking about Iñaki and Nico Williams. I get it. They’re fast, they’re exciting, and Nico is a global superstar.
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But the real story for Athletic lately has been their defensive resilience and the return of Aymeric Laporte. Having Laporte back in that backline has changed their floor. They don't concede cheap goals.
The struggle for the Lions recently hasn't been defending; it’s been finding a "Plan B" when teams double-team Nico Williams. In that September Villarreal vs Athletic Club match, Villarreal effectively "caged" Nico. They put two men on him every time he touched the ball, forcing the play inside where Thomas Partey and Pape Gueye were waiting to mop up.
If Athletic wants to jump from their current 8th place back into the top four, they need Gorka Guruzeta to find his scoring boots again. He’s the focal point, but he’s been starved of service in big games.
Head-to-Head: A Statistical Nightmare for Punters
If you like betting on this fixture, good luck. It’s one of the most balanced match-ups in Spanish football history.
In their last 50-plus meetings, the wins are almost split down the middle. Villarreal has 19 wins, Athletic has 17, and there have been 17 draws. It’s the definition of a "pick 'em" game.
What’s interesting is the venue shift. Historically, San Mamés is a nightmare for Villarreal. But lately, the "Cathedral" hasn't been as intimidating for the Yellows. They’ve managed to snatch draws and even a 3-2 win there recently.
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The next time these two meet—scheduled for mid-April 2026 at San Mamés—expect blood, sweat, and probably a few yellow cards. It’s Round 31. By then, the race for the Champions League will be at a boiling point. Villarreal will be trying to hold onto 3rd, and Athletic will likely be in a desperate scrap with the likes of Real Sociedad and Betis for that final European spot.
What to Watch For in the Return Leg
When April rolls around, the tactical battle will shift. Athletic at home is a different beast. They press higher, they play with more "verticality," and the crowd won't let them sit back.
- The Midfield Scrap: Watch the duel between Dani Parejo and Oihan Sancet. Parejo wants to slow the game down to a walking pace. Sancet wants to turn it into a track meet. Whoever dictates the tempo wins the game.
- The Health of Gerard Moreno: Villarreal’s talisman has had a stop-start season with injuries. If he’s fit and firing alongside Mikautadze, Villarreal is almost impossible to shut out.
- The Laporte vs. Mikautadze Battle: This is the heavyweight matchup. Laporte has the experience, but Mikautadze has that "chaos factor." He makes runs that don't make sense, and he only needs half a yard to score.
Practical Takeaways for Fans and Analysts
If you're looking at Villarreal vs Athletic Club as a barometer for the La Liga season, don't just look at the scoreline. Look at the transition moments.
Villarreal is currently the best team in Spain (outside of the big two) at "rest defense"—staying organized even when they lose the ball. Athletic, conversely, is the best at "intensity." If they can't break Villarreal's organization in the first 20 minutes, they tend to struggle.
To stay ahead of the curve on this rivalry:
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- Track Moleiro’s heat maps: He’s drifting more centrally now than he did at the start of the season.
- Monitor Athletic’s injury list: They don't have the depth of a Real Madrid. If Nico or Laporte goes down, the system sags.
- Watch the xG trends: Villarreal is currently "overperforming" their expected goals. Usually, that means a regression is coming. Whether that regression happens before or after the April showdown will decide their season.
This isn't just a game between two Spanish clubs. It’s a battle for the soul of the "Best of the Rest" in La Liga. Villarreal is winning that battle for now, but in Bilbao, history has a way of repeating itself when you least expect it.
Keep an eye on the February fixtures for both teams. Villarreal has a brutal run against Atletico Madrid and Espanyol that will test their squad depth. Meanwhile, Athletic needs to navigate a tricky set of games against Elche and Alavés to build some momentum before the spring push.
The race for 3rd and 4th place is tighter than it's been in a decade. Every point in these head-to-head matches between direct rivals is worth double. The September win for Villarreal might just be the most important result of their entire 2025-26 campaign.