If you’ve been scrolling through international news lately, you probably think Viktor Orbán is either a political titan who can’t be touched or a leader on the absolute brink of collapse. Honestly, the reality is a lot messier than that. Looking at the Viktor Orban approval rating 2024 data, we see a year that fundamentally changed the "Orbán system" for the first time in over a decade.
It wasn't just a slow dip. It was a rollercoaster.
For years, Orbán’s Fidesz party cruised with a comfortable lead, often hovering around 50% or higher in the polls. But 2024 felt different. It started with a massive scandal that hit his "family values" brand right where it hurts. Then came Péter Magyar—a former insider who basically walked out of the government’s inner circle and started a political firestorm.
The February Freeze: When the Numbers Started to Slide
The year didn't start great. In February 2024, a presidential pardon scandal broke. It turned out that President Katalin Novák (a close Orbán ally) had pardoned a man convicted of covering up child abuse in a state-run home. The backlash was instant.
Hungarians who usually don't care about politics were suddenly furious.
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You could see the impact immediately in the data. While Orbán himself usually stays a bit insulated from these things, his party's support took a hit. Polling from institutes like Medián and 21 Research Center began showing a shift. People weren't just annoyed; they were looking for an alternative.
Enter the "Magyar Factor"
This is where it gets interesting. Usually, the Hungarian opposition is a fragmented mess. But Péter Magyar, the ex-husband of former Justice Minister Judit Varga, showed up and changed the game. He launched the Tisza Party.
By the time the European Parliament elections rolled around in June 2024, the Viktor Orban approval rating 2024 story had a new lead character. Fidesz "won" the election with 44.6% of the vote. In any other country, 44% is a landslide. In Orbán’s Hungary? It was their worst result in two decades.
Meanwhile, Magyar’s brand-new party snatched up nearly 30%.
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- Fidesz (Orbán): 44.6%
- Tisza (Magyar): 29.7%
- The rest: Scrambling for leftovers.
Why Orbán is Still Hard to Beat
You’d think a 10-point drop would mean it’s over, right? Not really. Orbán is a survivalist.
Despite the "relative" decline, he still holds a massive advantage in rural areas. While Budapest and larger cities have mostly turned toward Magyar, the countryside remains a Fidesz stronghold. The government's control over the media landscape means that for many voters, the "scandals" they hear about are framed as foreign attacks or "Brussels interference."
The Viktor Orban approval rating 2024 isn't just one number—it’s a tale of two Hungarys. One side sees a defender of national sovereignty; the other sees a government that’s grown too comfortable after 14 years of unchecked power.
The Economic Weight
Let’s talk money. Because that’s what actually moves the needle for the average voter. Hungary has struggled with some of the highest inflation rates in the EU over the last two years. When the price of bread and fuel doubles, people stop caring about "cultural wars" and start looking at their wallets.
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In late 2024, we saw Fidesz try to pivot. They started talking about "economic neutrality" and massive wage hikes for 2025. This is classic Orbán: when the approval ratings dip, you open the checkbook.
What the Experts Say
Political analysts like Gábor Török have pointed out that for the first time since 2010, there is a "challenger" who speaks the same language as Fidesz voters. Magyar doesn't sound like a "liberal elite" from Brussels; he sounds like a disillusioned conservative. That is why the Viktor Orban approval rating 2024 trend is so scary for the ruling party. They aren't losing voters to the left; they are losing them to a different version of the right.
By the end of 2024, some polls—specifically from Medián—actually showed the Tisza Party neck-and-neck with Fidesz among decided voters. That was unthinkable in January.
What Happens Now?
If you’re watching these numbers, don’t expect a sudden collapse. Orbán has survived crises before. But the "aura of invincibility" is gone. The 2024 data tells us that the Hungarian electorate is no longer static.
What you should do next:
- Watch the 2025 Budget: The Hungarian government is going to spend big to win back those lost points. If inflation stays down and wages go up, Orbán’s numbers will likely bounce back before the 2026 election.
- Follow the "Decided Voter" Polls: Total population polls are misleading in Hungary because so many people are afraid to speak up. Look at "decided voters" to see where the momentum actually lies.
- Monitor Local Scandals: As we saw in February, Orbán’s biggest weakness isn't policy—it's moral hypocrisy. Any further "family values" scandals could be the tipping point.
The 2024 numbers aren't a death knell, but they are a very loud wake-up call for a government that thought it had no competition left.