Video Poker Odds: Why You Are Probably Playing the Wrong Machine

You walk into a casino and see a sea of flashing lights. Most people gravitate toward the slots because they’re easy. But you? You’re looking for the video poker machines. Smart move. Honestly, video poker is one of the few games where the player isn't just a passive observer waiting to lose their paycheck. You actually have agency. But here’s the kicker: if you don’t understand video poker odds, you might as well be throwing your money into a blender.

Most players think every Jacks or Better machine is the same. They aren't. Not even close. You could be sitting at a machine with a 99.5% return to player (RTP) or one that’s secretly choking your bankroll at 95%. The difference isn't in some hidden RNG (Random Number Generator) trickery; it's printed right there on the glass in the paytable.

The Math Behind the Screen

Let's get something straight right now. Video poker isn't a slot machine. A slot machine is a black box where the house can set the odds to whatever they want. In video poker, the video poker odds are governed by a standard 52-card deck. We know exactly how many ways there are to make a Royal Flush—exactly 4 out of 2,598,960 possible hands. Because the "physics" of the deck are fixed, the only way the casino can change the odds is by changing the payouts for specific hands.

It's all about the "Full House" and the "Flush." Experts like Bob Dancer, who has literally won millions playing these machines, will tell you to look at the 9 and the 6. On a classic Jacks or Better machine, a "9/6" paytable means a Full House pays 9 credits and a Flush pays 6. That's the gold standard. If you see an 8/5 machine, run. You're losing over 1% of your expected return just by sitting in that chair. Over a long session of 600 hands per hour, that 1% is the difference between a free dinner and a losing night.

Probability vs. Reality

Mathematics doesn't care about your "gut feeling." You might feel like a spade is "due" to show up, but the machine doesn't have a memory. Each hand is an independent event. The probability of hitting a Royal Flush is roughly 1 in 40,000 hands. That sounds daunting. It is. But the "long run" in video poker is much longer than most people realize. You could go 80,000 hands without seeing a Royal, or hit two in an hour. That’s variance.

The math works like this: $P(E) = \frac{n(E)}{n(S)}$. In English? The probability of an event is the number of favorable outcomes divided by the total possible outcomes. Since we know the total outcomes in a 52-card deck, we can calculate the exact house edge. But that's only if you play perfectly. Most people don't. They hold a kicker they shouldn't or chase a straight when they should just hold a high pair. This "human error" is where casinos make their real money.

Why Paytables Are Your Best Friend

You’ve gotta be a detective. Seriously. When you walk up to a machine, look at the paytable first. Don’t even put a dollar in until you’ve checked the per-credit return.

• Jacks or Better (9/6): Returns 99.54% with perfect strategy.
• Deuces Wild: This is a weird one. Some versions, like "Full Pay" Deuces Wild, actually offer a return of over 100% (100.76%). Yes, you can actually have an edge over the house. These are getting harder to find because, well, casinos like money.
• Double Bonus Poker: Look for the 10/7 version. It’s high volatility, meaning you’ll hit dry spells, but the payouts for Four of a Kind are massive.

If you’re playing a "Short Pay" machine, you’re basically paying a stupidity tax. A 6/5 Jacks or Better machine has an RTP of about 95%. That’s worse than many slot machines! It’s kind of insulting when you think about it. The casino is betting that you won't notice they shaved a few credits off the Flush payout. Don't let them be right.

The Strategy Factor

You can't talk about video poker odds without talking about strategy. This isn't Texas Hold'em. You aren't playing the person across from you. You’re playing a fixed mathematical puzzle. Every hand has one—and only one—mathematically "correct" way to play it to maximize your expected value (EV).

Sometimes the right move feels wrong. For example, in Jacks or Better, if you have a Low Pair (like two 3s) and four cards to a Flush, what do you do? Most amateurs keep the four cards to a Flush because it feels "closer" to a big win. Wrong. The math says you keep the Low Pair. The pair has a higher "expected value" because it can turn into Three of a Kind, a Full House, or Four of a Kind. The Flush is just a dead end if you miss that one card.

Breaking Down the Royal Flush

The Royal Flush is the "white whale." It usually accounts for about 2% of the total 99.5% payback. This means if you never hit a Royal, you’re actually playing a game with a 97.5% return. This is why bankroll management is so vital. You need enough credits to survive the "droughts" between the big hits. If you're playing for $1.25 a spin (max coins on a quarter machine), you probably need at least $1,000 in your pocket to have a reasonable chance of weathering the storm until a big hand hits. Sorta scary, right? But that's the reality of the game.

Common Myths That Kill Your Bankroll

People believe some wild stuff. I’ve heard players say that if a machine just hit a jackpot, it won’t hit again for hours. Total nonsense. The RNG is cycling through millions of combinations per second. The moment you press "Deal," it picks whatever combination is active at that exact millisecond. It doesn't know—or care—what happened five minutes ago.

Another big one: "I should play fewer coins if I'm losing." No! Never do this. Almost all video poker machines offer a massive bonus for the Royal Flush when you play 5 coins. For example, 1 coin might pay 250, but 5 coins pays 4,000. If you play 1-4 coins, you are actively lowering the video poker odds in the house's favor. If the 5-coin bet is too expensive, move down to a lower denomination machine (like nickels), but always play the max.

📖 Related: Peak Game Climb a Big Tree: Why This Physics-Defying Climb is Breaking the Internet

Real World Examples: The Las Vegas Strip vs. Downtown

If you want the best odds, stay off the Strip. Most of the machines at the big, fancy resorts on Las Vegas Blvd have terrible paytables. They know tourists are just looking for a drink and some flashy buttons. They’ll offer 7/5 or even 6/5 Jacks or Better.

Take a trip to Downtown Las Vegas or "locals" spots like South Point or Red Rock. These places compete for the serious players. You'll find plenty of 9/6 Jacks or Better and even the elusive "Not-So-Ugly" Deuces Wild (NSUD). These machines are the only ones worth your time if you actually care about winning.

Why Casinos Still Offer Good Odds

You might wonder why a casino would offer a game like 10/7 Double Bonus that actually pays back over 100%. Are they crazy? Not really. They know two things:

1. Most people won't play with perfect strategy.
2. Most people don't have the bankroll to handle the volatility.

Even on a "positive" machine, the casino usually wins because players get tired, get drunk, or get greedy. They deviate from the strategy. They see four cards to a Royal and break up a winning Straight to go for it. Mathematically, that's often a mistake, and the casino smiles every time you do it.

The Actionable Game Plan

If you want to actually take advantage of video poker odds, you need a system. You can't just wing it.

📖 Related: How to Get Basketball in Infinite Craft Without Losing Your Mind

First, get a strategy card. You can buy them online or print them out. Most casinos will actually let you hold the card in your hand while you play! Why? Because they know most people are too proud or too lazy to use them. Be the person who uses the card. It’s like having an open-book test where the teacher doesn't care if you cheat.

Second, use a trainer app. There are plenty of free ones for your phone. These apps will alert you every time you make a "sub-optimal" play. Spend twenty hours on a trainer before you ever put twenty dollars into a real machine. You need to build muscle memory for the weird hands, like when to hold a High Card over a Low Pair (which is rare, but happens in certain variants).

Third, join the players' club. Since the margins in video poker are so thin, the "comps" (free rooms, meals, or "free play" cash) are often what pushes you into the black. If the machine returns 99.5% and the players' club gives you 0.5% back in rewards, you are effectively playing a break-even game. That's the closest thing to a "fair" bet you'll ever find in a building designed to take your money.

Next Steps for the Aspiring Pro

Stop looking at the flashing lights and start looking at the numbers. Your next move should be to download a video poker analyzer. Practice until you can play 100 hands without a single error. Once you can do that, find a casino with a 9/6 paytable. Sit down, insert your players' card, and play with the cold, calculated precision of a machine.

✨ Don't miss: Why New Vegas Yes Man Is Still the Most Controversial Ending in Fallout History

Forget about "luck." In video poker, luck is just a temporary deviation from the math. Over enough hands, the math always wins. Make sure you're on the right side of it.