It happened at 2:00 a.m. while most of the world was asleep. On January 3, 2026, U.S. special forces touched down in Caracas, effectively ending the decade-long rule of Nicolás Maduro in a matter of hours. This wasn't a slow-burn diplomatic shift. It was a lightning strike—operationally dubbed "Operation Absolute Resolve"—that saw Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, whisked away to a federal courtroom in Manhattan to face narcoterrorism charges.
But if you think that solved everything overnight, honestly, you're in for a surprise.
The question of what's going on in Venezuela has moved from "will he ever leave?" to a much messier "who is actually in charge?" While Maduro sits in a New York jail cell pleading not guilty, the government he left behind hasn't just evaporated. In fact, his Vice President, Delcy Rodríguez, was sworn in as acting president almost immediately. The military, led by Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino López, backed her.
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So, we have a "Maduro-era regime without Maduro."
The Political Deadlock: Two Presidents, One Country
You've likely heard the name María Corina Machado. She’s the Nobel Peace Prize winner who has been the face of the opposition for years. Most people expected that if Maduro fell, she or her surrogate Edmundo González (the man widely believed to have won the 2024 election) would take the keys to the palace.
That hasn't happened.
The Trump administration has taken a sharp, somewhat confusing turn. Despite years of supporting the opposition, the White House recently signaled that they don't believe Machado has the "necessary support" to govern effectively right now. There’s a massive rift. Trump is reportedly frustrated that Machado accepted a Nobel Prize, and the U.S. seems more interested in dealing with the people who currently hold the guns—specifically Rodríguez and the military elite—to ensure the oil keeps flowing.
It's a weird, tense standoff. Machado is still meeting with world leaders and the Pope, but on the ground in Caracas, the "Acting President" Rodríguez is the one releasing political prisoners (about 68 so far) as a peace offering to avoid further U.S. strikes.
Why Oil Is the Real Story
Money talks. Or in this case, crude oil screams.
Venezuela has the largest proven oil reserves on the planet. For years, that oil has been stuck in the ground or sold on the black market to China and Iran because of sanctions. Now, the U.S. Department of Energy is "selectively rolling back" those rules. They want to get 30 to 50 million barrels moving immediately.
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But here’s the reality check: the infrastructure is trashed.
You can't just flip a switch on a refinery that hasn't been maintained since the 90s. Experts like Peter McNally from Third Bridge have pointed out that while the U.S. wants to "run" the country’s energy sector, it’s going to take billions of dollars and years of repairs. The electricity grid is a mess. Pipelines are leaking. It’s a project that will take a decade, not a weekend.
The Human Cost: 90% Poverty
While the politicians squabble over oil rights and court dates, the average person in Maracaibo or Valencia is just trying to find breakfast. What's going on in Venezuela isn't just about high-level geopolitics; it's a massive humanitarian disaster.
- Poverty levels: Over 90% of households live below the poverty line.
- The Exodus: 8 million people have already left. That’s roughly 1 in 4 Venezuelans.
- The Blockade: A U.S. naval blockade has cut off oil shipments to Cuba, which was Venezuela’s main way of paying for Cuban intelligence and security personnel.
The streets are quieter than they were a year ago, mostly because people are exhausted. There’s a heavy presence of "colectivos"—pro-government paramilitary groups—and the U.S. State Department is still telling Americans to stay far away. It’s a "fluid" situation, which is diplomat-speak for "anything could explode at any minute."
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What Happens Next?
The U.S. says they will "run the country" until a transition can happen. The Venezuelan government says the U.S. kidnapped their leader. Somewhere in the middle, 28 million people are waiting to see if their currency will ever be worth anything again.
If you are tracking this situation, keep your eyes on these three specific indicators:
- The New York Trial: Maduro’s legal proceedings in Manhattan will dictate how much the remaining regime members are willing to negotiate. If he looks like he's going down for life, they might hunker down and fight harder.
- The Oil Rigs: Watch for names like Chevron or Halliburton. If they start moving heavy equipment back into the Orinoco Belt, it’s a sign the U.S. has reached a quiet "business-first" deal with the Rodríguez administration.
- Migration Flow: If the borders with Colombia and Brazil don't see people returning home within the next six months, it means the "regime change" hasn't actually improved the security or economic reality on the ground.
Basically, the "capture" was the easy part. Rebuilding a broken nation while two different groups claim the presidency is the real challenge.
Actionable Insights for Following the Crisis:
- Follow the money: Monitor the U.S. Treasury (OFAC) website for "General Licenses." These are the documents that actually allow companies to trade with Venezuela and are a better indicator of policy than any tweet or press release.
- Watch the military: Keep an eye on Defense Minister Padrino López. In Venezuela, the person who controls the military controls the country, regardless of who is recognized by the UN.
- Check humanitarian reports: Use the UN’s OCHA dashboard for real-time data on food and medicine shortages, which often predict social unrest before it hits the news.
The situation is changing by the hour, but for the first time in twenty years, the status quo has been shattered. Whether it's replaced by a democracy or a new kind of authorized autocracy is the billion-dollar question.