Wild Card weekend just ate the defending champion Philadelphia Eagles alive. If you were holding an Eagles ticket to repeat, it's officially confetti in the trash. That’s the thing about the NFL postseason; the minute you think you have a handle on the "locks," the script flips. Right now, the vegas odds to win the super bowl are reacting to a divisional round bracket that looks nothing like what we expected back in August.
We’re heading into the divisional matchups on January 17th and 18th, and the board has a new king. The Seattle Seahawks, led by Mike Macdonald, have surged to the top of the pile. Most sportsbooks, including DraftKings and FanDuel, have them sitting at +270 or +280. It’s a massive swing for a team that opened the season as a +6000 longshot.
The Heavy Hitters in the NFC
Seattle has home-field advantage. That’s huge because playing at Lumen Field in January is a nightmare for anyone with a pulse. Sam Darnold has been playing out of his mind, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba is currently torching secondaries. But the oddsmakers aren't just looking at the Seahawks.
The Los Angeles Rams are lurking right behind them at +320. Honestly, I’m seeing a lot of "smart money" moving toward Matthew Stafford. He’s been here before. He knows how to navigate the pressure of a game-winning drive, which we saw when he diced up Carolina in the Wild Card round.
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Current Frontrunners
- Seattle Seahawks: +270
- Los Angeles Rams: +320
- New England Patriots: +600
- Buffalo Bills: +650
- Denver Broncos: +700
- Houston Texans: +850
Wait, did you see those names? The New England Patriots and Denver Broncos are top-five contenders. If you told a fan that two years ago, they’d have asked what you were smoking. Drake Maye has transformed the Pats into a legitimate threat, and Bo Nix has the Broncos looking like the most disciplined unit in the AFC. The vegas odds to win the super bowl reflect a total changing of the guard.
The AFC Chaos: Allen vs. The Field
Buffalo is the fascinating one. Josh Allen is always a bridesmaid, never a bride, or whatever the saying is. They’re sitting at +650. They just handled Jacksonville, and now they have to go into the thin air of Denver to face the No. 1 seed Broncos. Vegas has the Broncos as slight favorites in that specific matchup, but the Super Bowl futures are tighter because Allen has that "X-factor" that can break a game.
Then there’s Houston. C.J. Stroud and the Texans just dismantled the Steelers 30-6. They moved from +1200 to +850 in a single weekend. That is a massive jump. It tells you that the sharps are terrified of what Stroud can do when he's in a rhythm.
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Why the Bears are the Ultimate "What If"
The Chicago Bears are the wild card of the wild cards. They were down 21-3 at halftime against Green Bay. People were literally live-betting them at +8000. Then they dropped 25 points in the fourth quarter. Now? They’re +1600. It’s still a long shot, but they’ve proven they can survive a car crash and keep driving.
Understanding the "Vegas" Math
When you see +270, it basically means a $100 bet wins you $270. It also implies a certain probability. Right now, the Seahawks have about a 25% to 27% "implied" chance of lifting the Lombardi Trophy.
But Vegas isn't always right. They set these lines to balance the books, not necessarily to predict the future. If a ton of people in Seattle start hammering the Seahawks, the odds will drop to +250 or +230 just to mitigate the risk for the house. You’re betting against other people’s opinions as much as you’re betting against the athletes on the field.
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How to Handle These Odds Right Now
If you’re looking to place a wager, don’t just chase the favorites. The value is often in the "middle class" of the playoffs.
- Monitor the Injuries: Watch the status of Seattle's Charles Cross. If he’s out, that +270 looks a lot less appetizing.
- The Stafford Factor: Never bet against a veteran QB in a dome or good weather. The Rams are playing in Chicago this weekend; the wind at Soldier Field could neutralize the Rams' deep ball.
- Hedge Your Bets: If you took a longshot like the Texans at +2500 earlier this year, you might want to take a small position on the Patriots now to guarantee some profit.
The board is going to shift again the second the whistle blows on Saturday. If the 49ers pull off an upset against Seattle, the entire market will go into a tailspin. San Francisco is currently the longest shot left at +2000, but they've beaten Seattle once already this year.
Watch the movement after the Saturday games. Usually, the best time to find a "mispriced" line is about thirty minutes after the late game ends on Sunday, before the general public wakes up on Monday and starts shifting the numbers. Keep a close eye on the Denver vs. Buffalo line; the winner of that game will likely become the new AFC favorite, potentially jumping over the Patriots in the process.