Honestly, if you’d looked at the Vedanta Ltd share price a year ago, you might have winced. The debt was a mountain, the structure was a maze, and commodity cycles were doing what they always do—making everyone nervous. Fast forward to today, January 15, 2026, and the vibe has shifted. Hard.
We’re seeing the stock hover around ₹675, fresh off a record high of ₹679.45 just yesterday. It’s a wild swing from the 52-week low of ₹363. Some big names, like the folks over at Nuvama, are even whispering (or shouting) about an ₹800 target.
But is this just a hype train, or is there actual coal in the furnace?
The Demerger: Splitting the Giant
The biggest thing move right now is the demerger. Basically, Anil Agarwal’s empire is being sliced into five separate pieces. Think of it like a messy family dinner being turned into five distinct, well-organized restaurants. On January 9, 2026, the NCLT (National Company Law Tribunal) gave a major thumbs-up to the scheme involving Talwandi Sabo Power and others.
If you hold one share of Vedanta today, you’re eventually going to wake up with one share each in five different companies:
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- Vedanta Aluminium
- Vedanta Oil and Gas
- Vedanta Power
- Vedanta Iron and Steel
- The "New" Vedanta Ltd (the residual holding company)
The goal here is "value unlocking." Right now, a lot of investors hate the "conglomerate discount." They want to invest in pure-play aluminium or pure-play oil without worrying about the debt of a power plant. By splitting them up, each business can be valued on its own merits. The target for this whole process to wrap up is March 2026.
Production is Actually Smashing Records
It’s easy to get lost in the financial engineering, but the actual stuff they pull out of the ground is what pays the bills. In the Q3FY26 update released earlier this month, the numbers were kind of impressive.
Aluminium production hit a landmark 620 kilotonnes for the quarter. That’s up 1% year-on-year. Alumina output? That surged by 57% to 794 kilotonnes. When you see that kind of jump, it’s usually because of new capacity coming online, like the Train II at the Lanjigarh refinery.
Zinc India also posted its highest-ever third-quarter mined metal output at 276 kilotonnes. Even the power business saw sales jump 40% because the Meenakshi and Athena plants are finally pulling their weight.
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It’s not all sunshine, though. Oil and gas production actually fell by about 15%. That’s the nature of the beast with maturing fields—you have to keep drilling just to stay in the same place.
The Dividend Trap vs. The Deleveraging Reality
People love Vedanta for the dividends. You’ve probably seen the yield figures—they’re usually eye-watering. For FY2025-26, the board recently declared an interim dividend of 3.60 per share.
But here’s the thing: dividends aren't free money.
Historically, Vedanta has used dividends to pump cash up to the London-based parent company, Vedanta Resources, to help pay off its massive debt. Critics have called it "hollowing out" the Indian entity. However, the narrative is changing. S&P Global recently upgraded Vedanta Resources’ outlook to positive. They’ve been aggressively refinancing and paying down those 2026 bonds.
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Debt is falling. Or at least, it's becoming manageable. The net debt on the Indian books is around ₹48,000 crore. In a recent interview, Anil Agarwal called this "among the lowest leverage levels globally." Whether you believe that or not, the market seems to be buying it for now.
What Could Go Wrong?
Commodities are fickle. You’ve seen how fast metal prices can tank when China sneezes. If global aluminium or zinc prices take a 20% haircut, the Vedanta Ltd share price will follow suit, regardless of how "clean" the demerger is.
There's also execution risk. March 2026 is the goal for the split, but regulatory hurdles, tax filings, and asset transfers are notoriously slow in India. Any delay could cause the recent rally to fizzle out.
Actionable Insights for Your Portfolio
If you’re looking at Vedanta right now, don't just chase the record high. Here’s how to play it:
- Watch the Record Date: The demerger will trigger a "record date" for the share swap. If you want the pieces of the five new companies, you need to be holding the stock on that day.
- The ₹600 Floor: Technical analysts are pointing to ₹600 as a major support level. If the price dips back there, it might be a safer entry point than buying at the peak of a rally.
- Monitor Metal Prices: Keep an eye on the LME (London Metal Exchange) prices for Aluminium and Zinc. Vedanta’s margins are super sensitive to even small shifts in these spreads.
- Dividends vs. Growth: Decide why you’re in it. If you’re here for the yield, the demerger might actually change the dividend policy of the individual entities. Some might focus on growth, while others (like Power) might become the "cash cows."
The bottom line? The Vedanta Ltd share price is no longer just a proxy for commodity prices. It’s now a bet on a massive corporate transformation. If Agarwal pulls it off by March 2026, that ₹800 target might look like a bargain. If not, it’s a long way down to the support levels.