Texas golf is different. If you’ve ever stood on a fairway in San Antonio and felt that heavy, humid wind whipping through the mesquite trees, you know exactly what I mean. It’s not just about hitting it long; it’s about surviving the "Oaks" course.
The 2026 Valero Texas Open is coming up fast—running from April 2 to April 5—and honestly, most bettors are going to make the same mistake they make every year. They’ll look at who played well in Florida and assume it carries over. It doesn’t. TPC San Antonio is a beast of a different color.
The Mystery of the Oaks Course
You can’t just "bomb and gouge" here. Greg Norman designed this place to be mean. It’s a par-72 that stretches over 7,400 yards, and if you miss the fairway, you aren't just in the rough; you're often in the rocks or stuck behind a literal oak tree.
Last year, Brian Harman grinded out a win with a final-round 75. A 75! That tells you everything you need to know about how this course plays when the wind starts gusting. It’s a game of attrition.
When you're looking for your valero texas open picks, you need to focus on guys who can scramble. The greens are huge, but they have these crazy run-off areas. If you miss your spot by three feet, your ball is ending up thirty yards away.
Why Course History Actually Matters Here
Some people say course history is overrated. They’re usually wrong about San Antonio.
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Look at Corey Conners. The guy basically lives on the leaderboard here. He won in 2019 as a Monday qualifier and then did it again in 2023. He knows where to miss. That’s the secret. You have to know where the "safe" bogey is, because double bogeys are lurking on every single hole.
The Favorites: Who Actually Deserves the Hype?
It's tempting to just pick the biggest names in the field, but TPC San Antonio has a habit of humbling the superstars.
Hideki Matsuyama is a name that pops up early in the 2026 season conversations. He’s been striking the ball pure, and his short game is basically wizardry. In 2025, he was statistically one of the best at avoiding bogeys. If he’s healthy, he’s a massive threat because he can flight his irons low under the Texas wind.
Then there's Ludvig Åberg. He’s the "new" face of golf in a lot of ways, but he’s got that Texas Tech connection. He knows these winds. He doesn't get rattled. If his driver is clicking, he can turn some of those long par 5s into easy birdies, which is where this tournament is usually won or lost.
The "Last Chance" Narrative
There’s always a frantic energy at this event. Why? Because it’s the last chance to get into the Masters.
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If you aren't already qualified for Augusta, winning the Valero Texas Open is your Golden Ticket. We’ve seen it happen time and again—Akshay Bhatia did it in 2024. Keep an eye on guys like Ryan Gerard or Andrew Novak. They’ve both shown they can handle this specific course, and that "Masters or bust" motivation is a real thing.
Sleeper Picks and Value Bets
Honestly, I love looking further down the odds board for this event.
- Charley Hoffman: The "King of San Antonio." He’s older now, sure, but he has more top-10s here than most players have starts. He’s a "horse for the course" if there ever was one.
- Matt Kuchar: He’s another veteran who just seems to "get" this layout. He isn't going to overpower the course, but he’ll chip and putt his way into a top-20 finish while everyone else is hitting it into the brush.
- Sami Valimaki: This might sound like a reach, but the Finn has shown he can play in tough, windy conditions. His win at the 2025 RSM Classic proved he can handle a coastal-style breeze, which isn't too different from what we see in the Texas hill country.
Statistical Keys to Watch
Don't get blinded by putting stats alone. On these overseeded Bermuda greens (usually topped with Poa Trivialis this time of year), it’s more about Strokes Gained: Around the Green.
- Scrambling: You're going to miss greens. Can you save par from a collection area?
- Bogey Avoidance: Big numbers kill your scorecard here.
- Par 5 Scoring: You have to take advantage of the 14th and 18th.
What to Look for During Tournament Week
Watch the weather reports. Seriously. If the wind is forecast to stay under 10 mph, the scoring might reach 15-under or better. If it’s gusting to 25 mph, even the leaders will be struggling to stay under par.
Check the "late-early" vs "early-late" tee time splits. Sometimes the morning wave gets a totally different golf course than the afternoon guys. In San Antonio, that can be a difference of three or four strokes.
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Actionable Insights for Your Picks
If you're narrowing down your list, start with ball-strikers who have a history of playing well in the wind.
- Priority 1: Look for players who rank top-30 in Strokes Gained: Approach.
- Priority 2: Filter for those with at least three starts at TPC San Antonio.
- Priority 3: Check the "Masters Status." Those not yet in the field often play with an extra gear.
Keep your eyes on the practice round reports. If a guy is complaining about the firmness of the greens early in the week, he’s probably going to struggle when the Texas sun bakes them out by Sunday afternoon.
Check the final entry list on the Friday before the tournament. Often, a big name will add the event at the last minute if they feel their game needs a "tune-up" before heading to Georgia. Those players can be traps—sometimes they're more focused on testing a new driver than actually winning the trophy.
Focus on the grinders. The Valero Texas Open isn't a beauty pageant; it's a wrestling match in the dirt. Pick the guys who aren't afraid to get their hands dirty.