You’ve seen the map. It’s usually a solid, uncompromising slab of crimson right in the middle of the Mountain West. If you’re looking at Utah politics red or blue through the lens of a national cable news segment, the answer seems like a foregone conclusion. Republican. Always has been, always will be. Right?
Well, sorta.
Honestly, if you actually live here or spend enough time talking to the folks in line at a Salt Lake City Harmons, you realize the "Red State" label is a bit of a blunt instrument. It’s like calling a habanero "just a vegetable." Technically true, but it misses the specific heat and flavor that makes the thing what it is. Utah isn't just red; it’s a specific shade of "Beehive State" red that currently has some very interesting blue and purple streaks running through it as we head into 2026.
The 2024 Reality Check
Before we look forward, we have to look at what just happened. In the 2024 presidential election, Donald Trump carried Utah by about 21 points. On paper, that’s a blowout. But here’s the kicker: Kamala Harris pulled in 37.8% of the vote. That might sound low, but it’s actually the highest percentage a Democrat has snagged in Utah since 1964.
Even more surprising? Harris actually performed better than Joe Biden did in 2020 in a majority of Utah’s 29 counties. In a year where the rest of the country was largely swinging right, Utah had the second-smallest rightward shift in the nation. This isn't because Utah is suddenly becoming a liberal bastion. It’s because the brand of conservatism here—often influenced by the unique culture of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints (LDS)—doesn't always play nice with the national "MAGA" style of politics.
The Salt Lake Island
If you want to see where the blue lives, look at Salt Lake County. It’s an island. In 2024, the Governor’s race in Salt Lake County was basically a dead heat between incumbent Spencer Cox and his Democratic challenger, Brian King. Cox eventually won the state comfortably, but the fact that the state’s most populous county is now a coin-flip tells you everything you need to know about the urban-rural divide.
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The 2026 Redistricting Bombshell
The biggest story in Utah politics red or blue right now isn't a candidate; it’s a map.
For years, Utah Republicans used a "pizza slice" strategy for congressional districts. They’d take Salt Lake County—the blue "toppings"—and slice it into four pieces, dragging each piece out into the vast, red rural areas. This effectively neutralized the Democratic vote. No matter how blue Salt Lake got, it was always drowned out by the rest of the slice.
That changed in late 2025. A state judge, Dianna Gibson, threw a massive wrench in the gears. She ruled the 2021 maps were an unlawful gerrymander and ordered a redraw for the 2026 midterms.
What the new map changes:
- Salt Lake City is finally together: Instead of being split four ways, the heavily Democratic urban core is now mostly tucked into a single district.
- A "Safe" Blue Seat? For the first time in over a decade, Democrats have a legitimate "pickup" opportunity. While Republicans are appealing, the 2026 map creates a seat that Kamala Harris would have won by double digits.
- Incumbent Chaos: Two Republican incumbents, Mike Kennedy and Celeste Maloy, were essentially drawn into the same district. This means the 2026 Republican primaries are going to be a bloodbath long before the general election even starts.
The LDS Factor: It’s Not What You Think
People assume that because Utah is roughly 42% LDS (a number that’s actually been dropping from 60% just a few years ago), the Church just tells everyone how to vote.
It’s more nuanced than that.
The Church officially stays neutral in elections. However, its influence is undeniable because about 9 out of 10 state legislators are members. But here’s the thing: LDS voters are increasingly independent-minded. We saw this in 2016 when independent Evan McMullin took 21% of the vote. Utahns value "decency" and "institutional stability." When national rhetoric gets too spicy or divisive, a lot of Utah conservatives just... opt out. Or they vote for a moderate Republican like Spencer Cox, who famously caught heat from his own party's right wing for his stance on LGBTQ+ issues and vetoing certain restrictive bills.
The Rise of the "Unaffiliated"
If you look at the voter registration data from August 2025, the real story isn't the Democrats. It’s the "None of the Aboves."
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- Republicans: ~51%
- Democrats: ~13%
- Unaffiliated: ~28%
Almost a third of the state doesn't want a party label. These are the people who decide if a district stays red or tips purple. They are often younger, moving in from California or Washington for the tech jobs in "Silicon Slopes," and they aren't necessarily buying what the national GOP is selling.
Is Utah Turning Purple?
Basically, no. Not yet.
If you define "purple" as a state that could go for a Democratic President, Utah is still a long way off. But if you define "purple" as a state where the Republican party is having an identity crisis and the Democrats are finally getting a seat at the table due to court-ordered fair maps, then yeah—the tint is changing.
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The 2026 midterms will be the ultimate test. With a guaranteed competitive seat in Salt Lake and a growing "Never Trump" conservative base that is tired of the culture wars, Utah is no longer the predictable GOP rubber stamp it used to be.
What to watch for next:
- Check your new district: If you live in Salt Lake or Summit County, your congressional representative for 2026 is almost certainly changing. Look up the "Option C" map or the court-approved remedial map to see where you land.
- Watch the Primaries: In Utah, the real "election" often happens in the June GOP primaries. If you're an unaffiliated voter, remember you have to register as a Republican to vote in their primary, which is where the moderate vs. MAGA battle actually gets decided.
- Monitor the Supreme Court: The Utah State Legislature is still fighting the redistricting ruling. Keep an eye on the Utah Supreme Court over the next few months; if they stay the judge's order, the "Safe Blue" seat could vanish as quickly as it appeared.
The "red" in Utah is still there, but it’s getting a lot harder to ignore the blue waves crashing against the Wasatch Front.