Everyone thought the Utah Jazz were tanking for Cooper Flagg. That was the script, right? But then the 2025 NBA Draft happened, and Danny Ainge did exactly what Danny Ainge does: he pivot-stepped and grabbed Airious "Ace" Bailey at number five.
It was a gamble. Honestly, it still is.
When the Jazz called his name, there was this collective gasp. Not because he lacked talent—the kid is a walking bucket—but because the pre-draft process had been, well, a mess. Bailey reportedly dodged workouts with teams he didn't like. He basically tried to curate his own destiny, which is a bold move for a 19-year-old who hadn't played a minute of pro ball yet.
Now, midway through the 2025-26 season, we’re seeing the reality of that decision. It isn't all highlights and posters. Sometimes it’s just a rookie trying to find his legs in Salt Lake City while the rest of the league watches to see if he’ll boom or bust.
The Measurements vs. The Myth
There was a lot of chatter about Ace's size. Rutgers listed him at 6'10", and people were salivating. Then the Combine hit. He measured in at 6'7.5" barefoot.
Suddenly, the "giant wing" looked a bit more like a standard NBA small forward. But height is a funny thing in the league. While he lost a few inches in the official books, his 7'0.5" wingspan and 8'11" standing reach didn't go anywhere. That length is why he can still get his jumper off over just about anybody.
He plays big. Even if he isn't the 6'10" unicorn the early scouting reports promised, he has that "twitchy" athleticism that makes him look like he's playing on a different trampoline than everyone else.
Why Utah Was the Right (or Wrong) Spot
The Jazz are in a weird place. They aren't quite bad enough to be bottom-feeders, but they aren't exactly booking playoff tickets yet. It's a "transitional environment," as the scouts like to call it.
For a guy like Ace, that’s a double-edged sword:
- The Good: He gets minutes. Coach Will Hardy is giving him a long leash. He’s started 22 of his first 33 games.
- The Bad: The spacing is... let's say "experimental." Without a superstar gravity-well to pull defenders away, Ace is taking a lot of those tough, contested mid-rangers he loved at Rutgers.
He’s currently averaging about 9.9 points and 3.2 rebounds. Not exactly Rookie of the Year numbers, especially when you compare him to VJ Edgecombe in Philly, who is currently lighting the world on fire.
The "Ace Bailey" Style: Tough Shots and Growing Pains
If you watch a Jazz game today, you'll see the flashes. He’ll hit a turnaround jumper with a hand in his face that looks exactly like a young Kevin Durant. Then, two possessions later, he’ll drive into three defenders, lose his handle, and turn it over.
That’s the Ace Bailey experience.
His shooting splits tell a story of a player still figuring out his "diet." He’s shooting about 43.8% from the field and 34.1% from deep. It's not terrible for a rookie, but the efficiency just isn't there yet. He’s a "bad shot maker." That’s a scout-speak compliment for a guy who can score when the play breaks down, but it’s a curse if he relies on it too much.
He’s gifted in isolation. Give him the ball at the elbow, and he’s going to get a shot off. The problem is that in the NBA, "getting a shot off" isn't the same as "getting a good shot."
The Hip Flexor Setback
The biggest hurdle lately hasn't been his shooting—it’s been his health. A left hip flexor strain recently sidelined him for a chunk of games. For a player whose game relies so heavily on that "quick-twitch" explosiveness and second-jump ability, a hip issue is a real annoyance.
He’s missed seven of his last eight games as of mid-January 2026. When he did return for 31 minutes against Chicago on January 14th, he looked a bit rusty, going 4-of-9 for 10 points.
What the Jazz Are Actually Building
There is a vision here. It’s just blurry.
The Jazz have been pairing Ace with veterans like Jusuf Nurkic, trying to give him some structure. Nurkic is basically the "adult in the room," setting screens and throwing those backdoor passes that Ace is starting to read better.
Keyonte George and Ace are supposed to be the future. If George can be the engine and Ace can be the finishing piece on the wing, Utah has a legitimate foundation. But that requires Ace to buy into a role that isn't just "Isolation Scorer #1."
Is He a Bust?
People are already using the "B" word because VJ Edgecombe and Cooper Flagg are having more "viral" rookie seasons. That's sort of unfair. Ace is 19. He was always going to be a project.
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The concern isn't the talent; it’s the maturity and the decision-making. At Rutgers, his assist-to-turnover ratio was concerningly low (0.6). In the pros, it hasn't improved much yet. He’s averaging 1.5 assists per game. If he wants to be a star, he has to learn to see the floor, not just the rim.
How to Evaluate Ace Bailey the Rest of This Season
If you're a Jazz fan or a dynasty fantasy owner, don't panic about the low scoring averages. Look for the small wins instead.
Watch the shot selection. Is he taking catch-and-shoot threes, or is he settling for contested long twos early in the shot clock? At Rutgers, he shot nearly 39% on catch-and-shoot looks. In Utah, he needs to let the game come to him rather than trying to force his way into a highlight reel.
Check the defensive intensity. Ace has the tools to be an elite weak-side shot blocker. He has those "human highlight" instincts. When he’s engaged, he can guard multiple positions. When he’s bored, he "falls asleep" off-ball.
The Nurkic Factor. Watch how he plays off the veterans. If he starts using screens more effectively instead of rejecting them to go one-on-one, that’s the sign of a player who is actually learning the pro game.
The Utah Jazz took a swing on Ace Bailey because they wanted a star, not a safe pick. They knew he was flawed. They knew he was raw. But they also knew that you can't teach 6'9" (in shoes) with a 7-foot wingspan and a jumper that touches the rafters.
The next few months are about whether Ace can stop trying to be "The Man" and start becoming a winning basketball player.
Next Steps for Following the Jazz Rebuild:
Keep an eye on the injury reports for his hip flexor recovery; if he loses his lateral quickness, his defensive ceiling drops significantly. Track his usage rate compared to Lauri Markkanen; if the Jazz move Markkanen at the deadline, Ace's shots will skyrocket, for better or worse. Finally, monitor his free throw attempts—a jump in FTA would signal he's finally using his frame to attack the rim instead of settling for jumpers.