Man, college football moves fast. One minute you're the preseason darling, and the next, you’re sweating out a Tuesday night playoff reveal. If you’ve been following the ut texas ranking football drama lately, you know exactly how that feels. People love to talk about the Longhorns. They love it even more when Texas "underperforms" expectations. But looking at the cold, hard numbers for the start of 2026, the reality is a lot more nuanced than the "overrated" memes would have you believe.
Steve Sarkisian has built something here. It’s not just hype. It’s a 10-3 season that just wrapped up with a 41-27 demolition of Michigan in the Citrus Bowl.
Yet, some fans are acting like the sky is falling because Texas finished No. 13 in the final College Football Playoff rankings of 2025. Missing the 12-team dance by a single spot is brutal. It’s like getting to the front of the line at Franklin Barbecue right as they flip the sign to "Sold Out." Honestly, it stings. But if you look at how this team is positioned for the 2026 season, that No. 13 spot is basically a launchpad.
The Rollercoaster of the ut texas ranking football Journey
Let’s be real: the 2025 season was a trip. Texas started at No. 1. Total "National Championship or bust" vibes. Then they went to Columbus in Week 1 and lost a 14-7 rock fight to Ohio State. The rankings tumbled. They fell to No. 7, then eventually out of the Top 25 entirely after a "swampy" 29-21 loss to Florida in early October.
That’s when people started writing the obituaries for the Sark era.
"Same old Texas," they said.
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But then something shifted. They went into the Cotton Bowl and handled a No. 6 Oklahoma team 23-6. They won a triple-overtime thriller against Mississippi State. They knocked off a top-10 Vanderbilt. And the big one? A 27-17 upset over No. 3 Texas A&M to end the regular season.
By the time the final 2025 AP Poll dropped, Texas was sitting at No. 14. In the Coaches Poll? Also No. 14. The CFP committee liked them slightly better at No. 13. Basically, they spent the year proving they belong in the elite tier, even if the "No. 1" preseason tag was a bit of a reach for a team integrating so many new pieces in the SEC.
Current 2026 Landscape (As of January 16, 2026)
| Poll / Metric | Current Standing |
|---|---|
| Coaches Poll | No. 14 |
| Predictive Power Rank | No. 14 |
| 2026 Recruiting Rank | No. 10 (On3) / No. 8 (247Sports) |
| SEC Conference Standing | T-5th |
Why the 2026 Recruiting Rankings Matter More Than the AP Poll
If you’re obsessed with the ut texas ranking football outlook, you have to look at the pipeline. Recruiting isn't just a hobby in Austin; it’s the engine. Right now, for the 2026 cycle, Texas is hovering around the No. 8 to No. 10 spot nationally.
Sark is stacking talent like cordwood. We’re talking about guys like Jamarion Carlton and Hayward Howard Jr. already locked in. The average player rating is over 90. That’s elite.
What’s interesting is how the "industry comparison" shows Texas slipping slightly from 1st to 10th in some recruiting rankings recently. Don't panic. That usually happens when other teams get a flurry of early commits. Texas tends to play the long game. They focus on the portal too, which doesn't always show up in these "High School Only" rankings.
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The Arch Manning Factor
You can't talk about the Texas ranking without talking about the kid under center. Arch Manning’s 2025 was... interesting. He finished with 3,163 passing yards and 26 touchdowns. He also ran for 10 scores.
He’s 10-3 as a starter. For context, that’s the same record Colt McCoy had through 13 starts. It’s one game behind Vince Young.
Is he perfect? No. He had some mid-season struggles that contributed to that Florida loss. But Sarkisian has been vocal about how Manning "overcame the adversity" of being the most scrutinized athlete in the country. Heading into 2026, he’s a redshirt sophomore with a full year of SEC scars. That’s why the predictive rankings still have Texas as a top-15 lock.
Misconceptions About the SEC Strength of Schedule
One thing people get wrong about the ut texas ranking football situation is the "quality loss" argument. In the old Big 12, a two-loss Texas was out of the conversation. In the SEC, 10-3 gets you to the doorstep of the playoff.
Texas lost to:
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- Ohio State (Ranked No. 2 at the time)
- Florida (A tough road environment)
- Georgia (Ranked No. 3)
They didn't lose to cupcakes. They beat three Top-15 teams (Oklahoma, Vanderbilt, Texas A&M). When the 2026 preseason polls come out this summer, expect the "strength of schedule" metric to keep Texas highly ranked. The committee has shown they value who you beat more than who you lost to, provided those losses aren't blowouts to unranked teams.
Defensive Regression?
There’s been some chatter on message boards about the defense "going backwards." Pete Kwiatkowski’s unit gave up 35 to Georgia and 38 to Mississippi State. It’s a fair critique.
However, the late-season surge—holding A&M to 17 and Michigan to 27—suggests they found a rhythm. The development of guys like Anthony Hill Jr. (despite his hand injury late in '25) and Colin Simmons is the reason why scouts still view this defense as a top-20 unit.
Actionable Insights for the 2026 Season
If you're looking to track where the Longhorns go from here, keep your eyes on three specific things. These will dictate the ut texas ranking football movement more than anything else:
- Spring Portal Window: Texas is currently looking for an elite transfer offensive tackle. If they land a guy like Jordan Seaton or a similar caliber blindside protector, their "Power Ranking" will jump immediately.
- The 2026 Recruiting Finish: Watch the "In-State" percentage. Currently, about 52% of the '26 class is from Texas. Sark needs to close the border to jump back into the top 5 of the recruiting ranks.
- Manning's Consistency: Look for his completion percentage. He was at 61.4% in 2025. To be a top-5 team, he needs to push that closer to 67-68%.
The 2025 season proved that Texas isn't a fluke, but they aren't invincible yet either. Finishing 13th in the CFP and 14th in the AP is a solid foundation. They are officially a "playoff contender" every single year now. That’s a massive upgrade from where the program was five years ago.
Whether they can bridge the gap from "Top 15" to "Top 4" depends entirely on how they handle the trenches this offseason. The talent is there. The ranking reflects it. Now it’s just about finishing the job.
Next Steps for Longhorn Fans:
Monitor the 247Sports Composite rankings throughout the spring to see if Texas can jump back into the top 5 of the 2026 recruiting class. Also, keep an eye on the official spring game dates in April—that’s the first real look at how the roster is evolving post-Citrus Bowl.