Money is weird right now. If you're looking at the USD to UZS exchange rate today, January 16, 2026, you might be scratching your head. The official rate from the Central Bank of Uzbekistan (CBU) is sitting right around 11,970 UZS per 1 US Dollar.
Wait. Let that sink in.
If you remember the "good old days" of 2023 or 2024, the trajectory for the Uzbek soum was basically a slide down a steep hill. Everyone—and I mean everyone—expected the soum to just keep weakening until it hit 13,000 or 14,000. But something changed. In 2025, the soum actually appreciated by about 7% against the greenback. That's not supposed to happen to a developing economy's currency during a period of global volatility. Yet, here we are in early 2026, and the exchange rate is remarkably stable, hovering in that narrow 11,900 to 12,100 band.
The Gold Factor: Why Your Dollars Buy Fewer Soums
You can't talk about Uzbekistan’s money without talking about gold. Honestly, it’s the secret sauce.
Uzbekistan is one of the world's top gold producers. When global gold prices spiked throughout 2025, the CBU's coffers swelled. As of this month, the country's gold and currency reserves have hit a record-breaking $66.3 billion. That is a massive cushion. When the central bank has that much "dry powder," they can easily smooth out any sudden jumps in the USD to UZS exchange rate.
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But it isn't just about sitting on a pile of gold bars. It's about the cash flowing into the country. Export revenues, particularly from metals and the booming tourism sector, have been through the roof. When a country sells more stuff to the world, more people want their currency. Demand for the soum goes up. Value goes up. Simple as that.
Remittances: The $17 Billion Support Beam
Then there’s the human element. Remittances.
In the first 11 months of last year alone, migrant workers sent back roughly $17.3 billion. That’s a 25% jump from the year before. Think about that for a second. That is billions of dollars being converted into soums every single month to pay for bread, rent, and school fees in Tashkent and Samarkand.
This massive inflow of foreign currency acts like a giant anchor for the exchange rate. It keeps the market from getting thirsty for dollars. In fact, individuals in Uzbekistan have been selling way more foreign currency to banks than they’ve been buying. We’re talking about $19.4 billion sold versus about $10.6 billion bought.
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Inflation and the "Tight" Money Game
You’ve probably noticed that things still feel expensive. You aren't wrong.
Inflation in Uzbekistan ended 2025 at about 7.3%. While that’s the lowest it’s been in nearly a decade, it still hurts the wallet. The government wants to drag that number down to 7% this year and eventually hit a 5% target by 2027.
To do this, the CBU is keeping interest rates high—around 14%.
When interest rates are high, it’s "expensive" to borrow soums, but it’s great to save them. This makes soum-denominated assets (like bank deposits) look pretty attractive compared to holding dollars. Why hold a greenback that might stay flat when you can put soums in a local account and earn double-digit interest? This "tight" monetary policy is a huge reason why the USD to UZS exchange rate hasn't spiraled.
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Regional Ripples
It isn't all sunshine, though. Uzbekistan doesn't exist in a vacuum.
- The Russia Factor: A lot of those remittances come from Russia. If the Russian economy slows down or their migration policies get even tighter, that $17 billion lifeline could start to fray.
- Import Hunger: Uzbekistan is growing fast—GDP growth is projected at 6.8% for 2026. Fast growth means companies are buying machinery, tech, and raw materials from abroad. That requires dollars.
- The EDB Forecast: Analysts at the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) are a bit more cautious than the current spot rates suggest. They’re projecting an average exchange rate of 12,800 UZS for the full year of 2026.
Basically, the experts think the current strength might be a bit of a "honeymoon phase" and that natural depreciation will eventually kick back in as imports rise.
What This Means for You (The Actionable Part)
If you're a traveler, a business owner, or someone sending money home, the current USD to UZS exchange rate environment is actually pretty favorable for planning.
- For Travelers: Uzbekistan is "more expensive" for Americans than it was two years ago because the dollar is weaker against the soum. However, compared to Western Europe or the US, it's still a bargain. If you're visiting, don't expect your dollars to stretch quite as far as they did in 2023.
- For Business/Investors: The stability is a gift. It makes it way easier to price goods and forecast profits without worrying about the currency crashing 10% overnight. If you're holding large amounts of UZS, the high interest rates in local banks are genuinely worth looking at, provided you're okay with the inherent emerging-market risk.
- For Remittance Senders: Since the soum is relatively strong, the dollars you send home actually buy fewer soums than they used to. If you were used to a specific "payout" for your family, you might need to send a bit more to cover the same local costs, especially with utility tariffs (gas and electricity) rising significantly in 2026.
Keep a close eye on the CBU’s weekly reports. If you see gold prices start to tank or the policy rate drop below 13%, that’s your signal that the soum might start its long-awaited slide toward that 12,800 mark. For now, enjoy the rare sight of a stable, resilient Uzbek soum.
Practical Next Steps
To stay ahead of the curve, you should regularly check the official Central Bank of Uzbekistan website for their latest "currency interventions" data. If you are doing business, consider "laddering" your currency exchanges—converting small amounts every week rather than one big lump sum—to hedge against the EDB's predicted move toward 12,800 later this year.