Honestly, if you took a look at the preseason headlines for this USC team, you probably thought the sky was falling in South Los Angeles. And why wouldn't you? Losing a generational talent like JuJu Watkins to a season-ending injury before the first whistle even blew is the kind of gut punch that sends most programs into a multi-year tailspin. It's rough.
But here we are in mid-January 2026, and the narrative around the Galen Center is shifting from "how will they survive?" to "how far can they actually go?"
The latest usc women's basketball ncaa tournament projections are painting a much more optimistic picture than the "bubble team" status many skeptics predicted back in November. While they aren't the wire-to-wire No. 1 seed lock they would have been with a healthy JuJu, Lindsay Gottlieb has this group playing a brand of "positionless" basketball that is keeping bracketologists very busy.
The Current State of the Bracket
Right now, if you check the major boards like ESPN’s Charlie Creme or the latest updates from CBS Sports, USC is firmly in the field. Most experts currently have the Women of Troy projected as a No. 5 or No. 6 seed.
That is huge.
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Being a 5-seed is the ultimate "danger zone" for opponents. It means you’re likely traveling to a 4-seed’s campus for the first two rounds, but it also means you have the talent to knock off a heavyweight in the second round. Earlier this month, some projections had them sliding toward the 7-seed line after a couple of tough Big Ten road losses to Michigan and Minnesota, but they’ve stabilized.
The reality? This team is a nightmare to scout because you can't just key in on one superstar anymore.
Why the Seed Matters (More Than Usual)
In the women's tournament, the top 16 overall seeds host the first and second rounds on their home court. For USC, jumping from a 5-seed to a 4-seed is the difference between playing in front of a rowdy crowd at the Galen Center or potentially flying to Ames, Iowa, to face a hostile Hilton Coliseum.
- Current Projection: No. 5 Seed
- Best Case Scenario: No. 3 or 4 Seed (Hosting rights)
- Worst Case Scenario: No. 8 or 9 Seed (The dreaded "early exit" bracket)
Who is Stepping Up?
You can't talk about usc women's basketball ncaa tournament projections without talking about the "New Big Three." With JuJu on the sidelines acting as a de facto coach, the scoring load has been distributed in a way that’s actually made USC harder to defend in some stretches.
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Kennedy Smith has taken that "sophomore leap" everyone talks about but few actually achieve. She isn't just a role player anymore; she’s the engine. Then you have the freshman sensation, Jazzy Davidson. Coming in as the No. 1 recruit in her class, the expectations were astronomical. She hasn't just met them—she’s lived in them. Her ability to play multiple positions has allowed Gottlieb to get creative with lineups that frankly shouldn't work on paper.
And don't overlook the transfers. Londynn Jones (the UCLA skip) and Kara Dunn have provided the veteran "been there, done that" energy that every tournament team needs. When the game slows down in March, you need players who won't blink.
The Big Ten Gauntlet
The move to the Big Ten hasn't been a walk in the park. It's a physical, grueling conference where you get beat up in the paint every Tuesday and Thursday. USC’s resume currently boasts a massive win over Maryland, which really helped their NET ranking.
However, the losses matter too. The narrow 63-62 loss to Minnesota was a wake-up call. It showed that without a closer like Watkins, the Trojans have to be perfect in the final two minutes. That "clutch factor" is the one thing keeping them from being a projected No. 2 or No. 3 seed right now.
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What the Experts are Saying
I was reading some of Erica Ayala’s takes recently, and she mentioned something that stuck with me: USC’s defensive execution is actually better this year.
Last season, they could sometimes rely on JuJu to outscore their mistakes. This year, they have to grind. They are holding opponents to lower shooting percentages across the board. If you can defend like that, you are never "out" of a tournament projection. Even without their best player, they have the "bones" of a Final Four contender.
Actionable Steps for the Stretch Run
If you’re a fan or just following the money for your bracket, here is what you need to watch over the next three weeks to see where those usc women's basketball ncaa tournament projections land:
- Watch the NET Rankings: USC needs to stay in the Top 20 of the NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET). If they slip to 25 or lower, that 5-seed becomes a 7-seed very quickly.
- The "Road Test" Factor: Pay attention to their upcoming away games against top-tier Big Ten opponents. Winning on the road is what impresses the selection committee more than anything else.
- Monitor the Rotation: If any of the "New Big Three" (Smith, Davidson, or Jones) get nicked up, the depth is thin. This team is talented, but they aren't deep.
Basically, USC is the team nobody wants to see in their region. They have the pedigree of a blue blood and the "nothing to lose" energy of an underdog. That's a scary combination for March.
To get a better sense of how the seeding might fluctuate, keep an eye on the weekly AP Poll updates and the mid-week NET releases, as these will be the primary drivers for the committee's final decision in March.