Everyone thinks they know who’s going to win the US Women's Open until the first round actually starts at a place like Oakmont or Pebble Beach and the greens turn into glass. Honestly, if you’re just looking at the top of the board for the lowest US Women's Open odds, you’re probably doing it wrong. This isn't like a standard LPGA Tour stop where you can just birdie your way out of a bad drive. This tournament is a grind. It’s a mental breakdown waiting to happen.
Betting on this event is tricky because the USGA (United States Golf Association) loves to make the world's best players look like weekend hackers. They grow the rough long. They tuck the pins behind bunkers. You've basically got to be a masochist to enjoy playing in it, and as a bettor, you have to look for the players who don't blink when they make a bogey.
Understanding the US Women's Open Odds and Why They Shift
When the oddsmakers at shops like FanDuel or BetMGM release the opening numbers, they usually lean heavily on the Rolex Rankings. If Nelly Korda is on a heater, she’s going to be the favorite. Period. But the "favorite" tag in this tournament is often a kiss of death.
Take a look at the historical data. We’ve seen longshots like A Lim Kim come out of nowhere in 2020. We've seen Yuka Saso win it twice now, often at odds that made people overlook her. The US Women's Open odds for a defending champion or a World No. 1 are usually inflated. You're paying a premium for the name, not necessarily the fit for the specific course layout.
What really moves the needle? It’s the "Wave."
In golf betting, the morning versus afternoon tee times can completely wreck a leaderboard. If the wind picks up at 2:00 PM on Friday, those +1200 odds on the leader can balloon to +5000 in two hours. You have to watch the weather reports like a hawk. Seriously. If you aren't checking wind gusts, you're just throwing money into a bunker.
The "Oakmont Factor" and Course Difficulty
The 2025 and 2026 cycles are taking us to some legendary venues. When we talk about US Women's Open odds at a place like Oakmont, we’re talking about a course where the greens are famously faster than the fairways.
You need to prioritize "Strokes Gained: Approach."
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If a player can't hit a specific quadrant of a green, they’re looking at a three-putt. It doesn't matter how far they hit their driver. Distance is a luxury; precision is a requirement. Look at players like Lydia Ko or Hyo Joo Kim. They might not outdrive the young power hitters, but their wedge game is surgical. In a US Open environment, surgical wins. Power just gets you into the deep fescue faster.
Why Longshots Thrive Here
Think about the pressure. It's the biggest purse in women's golf. For many of these players, the difference between finishing 1st and 5th is literally millions of dollars. Some players thrive under that—others tighten up.
- The Amateur Surge: We almost always see an amateur or a freshly turned pro hanging around the top 10 on Friday. Why? Because they don't know enough to be scared yet.
- International Value: The KLPGA and JLPGA tours are stacked with talent that the casual American bettor doesn't follow. When you see a name you don't recognize at +8000, don't just skip it. Check their stats in majors.
- The "Grinder" Profile: You want the player who saves par from the trash. Look for "Scrambling" percentages. If someone is hovering around 70% scrambling for the season, they are a live dog when the course gets tough.
Reading the Board: Favorites vs. The Field
Right now, if you're looking at the top of the market, you'll see the usual suspects. Nelly Korda, Rose Zhang, Lilia Vu, and maybe Atthaya Thitikul.
Nelly is usually the shortest price. Is she worth it? Sometimes. But in a US Open, her aggressive style is high-risk. If her putter goes cold, those +700 odds look terrible by Saturday afternoon. On the flip side, someone like Rose Zhang has the iron play that fits the USGA setup perfectly. She hits greens in regulation at a staggering rate.
Then you have the "Mid-Tier" guys—the players in the +3000 to +6000 range.
This is where the money is made. You're looking for the Brooke Hendersons or the Minjee Lees of the world. Players who have won majors before, know how to handle the Sunday pressure, but aren't currently the "flavor of the month."
Common Mistakes People Make with US Women's Open Odds
The biggest mistake? Chasing last week’s winner.
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Golf is fickle. Winning a tournament on a resort course with wide fairways tells you almost nothing about how a player will perform at a US Open. In fact, the physical and emotional drain of winning a tournament the week before often leads to a "hangover" effect.
Another mistake is ignoring "Strokes Gained: Around the Green."
When the greens are firm, everyone misses them. Everyone. The winner is usually the person who chips it to three feet instead of ten feet. If you’re looking at US Women's Open odds, find the player who is top 10 in sand saves. There will be bunkers. Lots of them.
The Live Betting Trap
Live betting is fun, but it’s dangerous here. The leaderboards at the US Women's Open are incredibly volatile. A three-shot lead can vanish in one hole (just ask anyone who's played the 12th at a major under pressure).
If you're going to bet live, wait for a player to make a bogey. The odds will jump, and if their underlying stats (ball striking) are still solid, that’s your entry point. Don't buy at the peak.
Analyzing the 2026 Landscape
As we look toward the 2026 championship at Riviera Country Club, the dynamic shifts again. Riviera is a "shot-maker's" course. It’s "The Hogan's Alley." You can't fake it there. The US Women's Open odds will likely favor those with high "Strokes Gained: Tee to Green" numbers.
Riviera’s famous 6th hole—the one with the bunker in the middle of the green—is a perfect metaphor for this tournament. It’s quirky, it’s difficult, and it rewards players who think three shots ahead.
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I’d be looking very closely at the Japanese contingent for 2026. Their domestic tour plays on courses that require immense precision and strategic discipline. Yuka Saso’s success isn't an outlier; it's a blueprint.
Actionable Strategy for Betting the US Women's Open
If you want to actually turn a profit or at least stay in the black while watching the coverage, stop betting "To Win" only. That’s a lottery.
1. Focus on Top 20 Markets
The variance in golf is insane. You can pick the best player in the world, and they can lose by one stroke on a lip-out. Betting a player to finish in the Top 20 gives you a massive cushion. If you find a "ball-striker" specialist at +150 for a Top 20, that’s often better value than taking them at +4000 to win.
2. Matchup Bets are Your Best Friend
Forget the whole field. Can Jin Young Ko beat Patty Tavatanakit over 72 holes? That’s all you need to care about. Look for matchups where a consistent "fairways and greens" player is pitted against a "bomber" who struggles with accuracy. On a US Open setup, the accurate player wins that matchup 7 times out of 10.
3. Monitor the Morning/Afternoon Splits
Before placing a bet on Thursday morning, check the weather for the whole day. If the morning wave gets calm air and the afternoon wave gets 20 mph winds, the morning players have a massive advantage. You can often find value by "stacking" players from the easier side of the draw in your betting card.
4. Follow the "Amateur to Watch"
Every year, a couple of amateurs make the cut and stay relevant. Keep an eye on the Augusta National Women's Amateur (ANWA) results. The girls who perform well there usually have the mental toughness to handle the US Open's pressure. Their US Women's Open odds for a Top 40 finish can be a goldmine.
5. Avoid the "Distance" Hype
The media loves to talk about how far the modern player hits the ball. Don't fall for it. The USGA often sets up holes to neutralize distance by placing bunkers at the landing zones of the longest hitters. Focus on "Proximity to Hole" from 125-150 yards. That's the scoring zone.
Golf betting is about patience. The odds change every hour, and the US Women's Open is the ultimate test of that patience. Don't blow your bankroll on Thursday morning. Keep some powder dry for Saturday when the "Moving Day" charges start happening. That’s when the real patterns emerge and the pretenders start dropping off the map.
Next Steps for Your Betting Card:
- Check the current Rolex Rankings to identify the top 10 players, then cross-reference them with their "Strokes Gained: Around the Green" stats over their last five tournaments.
- Review the official USGA course setup notes (usually released the week of the event) to see the expected stimpmeter speed of the greens; any speed over 12.5 favors "feel" putters over "line" putters.
- Compare the "Matchup" prices across at least three different sportsbooks; the US Women's Open often has significant price discrepancies because oddsmakers don't track the LPGA as closely as the PGA Tour.