If you asked a casual fan about the biggest threat to American soccer dominance in CONCACAF, they’d probably point toward the lights of Mexico City or the rising grit of Canada. But those of us who actually watch the grind know better. It’s the red shirts from the Isthmus. Panama.
Honestly, the US vs Panama soccer dynamic has shifted from a "guaranteed win" to a recurring nightmare for the Stars and Stripes. It’s not just a game anymore; it's a litmus test for where the U.S. Men’s National Team (USMNT) actually stands.
The Night the Narrative Changed
We have to talk about that 2024 Copa América match in Atlanta. It was a disaster. Tim Weah saw red just 18 minutes in for a moment of madness, a punch that basically handed Panama the keys to the city. Folarin Balogun scored a world-class goal to give the 10-man U.S. a lead, but you could feel the air leave the stadium.
Panama didn't blink. They equalized four minutes later through César Blackman and then just... waited. They played with a disciplined, cold-blooded patience that you don’t usually see from teams labeled as "underdogs." When José Fajardo smashed home the winner in the 83rd minute, it didn't feel like a fluke. It felt like a changing of the guard.
That 2-1 loss wasn't just a bad day at the office. It was the beginning of the end for the Gregg Berhalter era. It’s rare that a single match against a Central American side carries enough weight to get a coach fired, but that’s the level Panama has reached. They aren't just "scrappy" anymore. They’re dangerous.
US vs Panama Soccer: What the History Books Actually Say
Most people assume the U.S. has always steamrolled Panama. While the all-time record looks lopsided—the U.S. sits at roughly 18 wins, 4 losses, and 7 draws as of early 2026—the recent trajectory is way more balanced.
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Since 2015, the Americans have only won about half of their meetings. That’s wild.
Think back to the 2023 Gold Cup semifinals. The U.S. was the heavy favorite, playing on home soil. Panama dragged them into deep water, forced a 1-1 draw through 120 minutes, and then Adalberto Carrasquilla—the guy who basically runs the midfield for the Houston Dynamo—buried the winning penalty.
Why the U.S. Struggles With "Los Canaleros"
Panama plays a specific brand of soccer that is a total headache for the U.S. athletic profile. They are physically imposing, yes, but they’ve added a layer of tactical sophistication under coach Thomas Christiansen.
- Midfield Control: Carrasquilla is the real deal. He doesn't just "hustle"; he dictates the tempo.
- Defensive Shape: They don’t just park the bus; they clog the passing lanes that players like Christian Pulisic and Gio Reyna rely on.
- The Psychological Edge: They don't fear the USMNT. At all.
The Pochettino Factor
When Mauricio Pochettino took over the USMNT in late 2024, his very first match was against—you guessed it—Panama. It was a "welcome to the neighborhood" moment in Austin, Texas.
The U.S. won that one 2-0. It felt like order was restored. Yunus Musah finally got his first international goal, and Ricardo Pepi added a late insurance strike. But if you watched the game, it wasn't a blowout. Panama actually outshot the U.S. 13 to 11. Matt Turner had to make a massive double-save to keep the clean sheet intact.
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The honeymoon didn't last long, though. By March 2025, the teams met again in the Concacaf Nations League semifinals at SoFi Stadium. This was supposed to be the U.S. asserting dominance. Instead, Cecilio Waterman broke American hearts with a goal in the 94th minute.
That 1-0 loss ended the U.S. streak of three straight Nations League titles. It was a massive wake-up call. It proved that even with a world-class manager like Pochettino, the US vs Panama soccer rivalry is a coin flip.
Key Players to Watch in 2026
As we approach the 2026 World Cup, both rosters are reaching a peak. The U.S. has the "Golden Generation," but Panama has a "Battle-Hardened Generation."
For the USA:
The burden usually falls on Christian Pulisic. He has historically feasted on Panama, recording seven goal contributions in six career games against them. If Pulisic isn't "on," the U.S. offense tends to look stagnant. Keep an eye on Mark McKenzie and Chris Richards in the back, too. They’ve had a tough time dealing with the physicality of Panama’s strikers like José Fajardo.
For Panama:
It starts and ends with Adalberto "Coco" Carrasquilla. He is the engine. Then there's Orlando Mosquera in goal. The guy has a habit of turning into prime Manuel Neuer whenever he sees the crest of the U.S. Soccer Federation.
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The Road to the 2026 World Cup
Panama has officially established itself as the top dog in Central America. They’ve surpassed Costa Rica and Honduras in terms of consistency and talent export. They’ve already punched their ticket to the 48-team World Cup as the lone representative from their sub-region, finishing top of their qualifying group in late 2025.
For the U.S., these matches are no longer just friendlies or regional chores. They are vital preparation. If the U.S. can't consistently solve the "Panama Puzzle," they are going to struggle against mid-tier European or South American sides in the World Cup group stages.
What You Should Do Next
If you’re a fan trying to get a handle on this matchup, stop looking at the FIFA rankings. They’re a lie in this context. Instead, look at the "Man Advantage" stats. The U.S. has a bad habit of losing their cool—and getting red cards—when Panama starts physical play.
Next Steps for Fans:
- Watch the Midfield: In the next matchup, ignore the ball for a few minutes and just watch Carrasquilla vs. Tyler Adams (or whoever is in the U.S. pivot). That's where the game is won.
- Check the Venue: Panama plays much better in humid, North American summer conditions than they do in cold-weather qualifiers.
- Track the Subs: Both teams have become "deep." The 2025 Nations League game was decided by a sub (Waterman). Watch how Pochettino uses his bench to counter Panama’s late-game fitness.
The days of the U.S. walking through CONCACAF are over. And honestly? That’s probably a good thing for the sport. But it makes every single US vs Panama soccer match a high-stakes drama that usually ends with someone's feelings getting hurt.