Honestly, the way we talk about the second person on the ticket is kinda broken. We treat them like a spare tire—something you only notice when the car hits a ditch. But if the last few years have taught us anything, it’s that the people picked as US vice presidential candidates end up defining the entire trajectory of the country long after the confetti is swept away.
Think about it. We just watched a cycle where the "understudies" became the main event. You’ve got JD Vance, who went from being a Silicon Valley-backed author to the most powerful Vice President since Dick Cheney. Then there’s Tim Walz, the "dad in a flannel" who suddenly found himself as the face of a brand new Democratic movement before retreating to Minnesota to deal with a mess of state-level fraud investigations. It’s wild.
People usually search for these names to see who's "winning," but the real story is in how these candidates are actually chosen and what happens to them when the spotlight shifts.
The 2024 Shakedown: Vance, Walz, and the Power Shift
The 2024 election wasn't just another vote; it was a total overhaul of what it means to be on the shortlist. When Donald Trump tapped JD Vance, he wasn't looking for a traditional bridge to the establishment. He wanted a "MAGA heir." Vance, at just 40 years old, is now the 50th Vice President, making him the youngest person in that chair since Richard Nixon back in the 50s.
On the flip side, Kamala Harris’s pick of Tim Walz was a masterclass in "vibes." Walz brought that Midwestern coach energy that Democrats were desperate for. But as of January 2026, things look a lot different for the former running mate. Walz recently announced he won't be seeking a third term as Minnesota's governor. He’s basically stepping back from the front lines, cited as being "unable to give a campaign his all" while dealing with federal investigations into child care fraud in his state.
It’s a stark contrast. One is cementing a legacy as the White House’s "enforcer" on domestic fraud and foreign policy (even if he’s skipping the Munich Security Conference this year to avoid more drama with European allies), while the other is looking for an exit ramp.
The Myth of the "Safe" Choice
What most people get wrong about US vice presidential candidates is the idea that "safe" is better. In the past, you’d pick a running mate to "balance the ticket." If you’re old, pick someone young. If you’re a Northerner, pick a Southerner.
But look at the 2024 shortlist:
- Josh Shapiro: The Pennsylvania Governor was the "smart" play for the electoral college, but he got passed over because the "vibe" didn't fit the Harris campaign's sudden pivot.
- Mark Kelly: An astronaut and Senator from Arizona. On paper? Perfect. In reality? He didn't have the "attack dog" persona needed for the 107-day sprint.
- Marco Rubio: Trump’s former rival turned Secretary of State. He was on the VP shortlist for months before Vance snatched it. Now, Rubio is running the State Department, which shows that being a runner-up for VP is often just a high-level job interview.
The reality? Modern campaigns don't want balance. They want a "mini-me" or a "force multiplier." They want someone who can go on Fox News or MSNBC and speak the base's language without needing a script.
Why 2026 is the Real Proving Ground for 2028
If you think the race is over, you’re not paying attention. 2026 is basically the "pre-season" for the 2028 presidential run. We’re already seeing the next crop of US vice presidential candidates (and presidential hopefuls) start their "book tour" phase.
Gavin Newsom and Josh Shapiro are both dropping memoirs in February 2026. That is political code for "I’m running." Even Kamala Harris is back on the trail, promoting her own book about the 107-day campaign. She’s hitting the swing states again, and some analysts, like James Morrow, are even floating the idea of a Newsom-Harris ticket for 2028. It sounds kinda crazy—having a former VP go back to being the VP candidate—but in this political climate, "normal" is dead.
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The GOP Bench
On the Republican side, the power is concentrated. JD Vance is currently the GOP's chief fundraiser. He’s the one holding the keys to the 2026 midterms. But keep an eye on these names:
- Tulsi Gabbard: Now serving as the Director of National Intelligence. She was a top VP contender and remains a massive favorite with the populist wing.
- Vivek Ramaswamy: He didn’t get the VP nod, but he’s essentially a co-pilot in the "DOGE" (Department of Government Efficiency) effort. He’s building a brand that is purely about disruption.
- Nikki Haley: She’s been quiet, but she’s the "in case of emergency, break glass" candidate for the traditional donor class.
The Vetting Horror Show
Ever wonder why some US vice presidential candidates seem to implode three days after being announced? It’s because the vetting process is a nightmare.
In 2024, the Harris campaign used Eric Holder’s law firm, Covington & Burling, to dig through everyone’s trash. They’re looking for everything: taxes, old college papers, that one weird tweet from 2011, and even "perceived" vulnerabilities.
Vance had to answer for his "Hillbilly Elegy" comments and his past criticisms of Trump (where he once called him "cultural heroin"). Walz had to answer for his 1995 DUI and his military retirement timing. If you’re thinking about running for office, just assume someone is currently reading your high school yearbook and talking to your ex.
How to Actually Track These Candidates
If you want to stay ahead of the curve, stop watching the big rallies. That’s just theater. Instead, watch where the money goes and who’s writing what.
- Follow the "Book primary": When a Governor or Senator suddenly has a deep, soulful memoir about their "journey," they are officially auditioning for a spot on a national ticket.
- Check the "Surrogates": Who is the campaign sending to the Sunday morning talk shows? Those are your future US vice presidential candidates. If they can handle a grill session from a hostile journalist without melting down, their stock goes up.
- State of the Union Guests: Watch who gets invited to sit in the gallery. It’s a subtle way for the administration to signal who is "in the family."
The job of the Vice President has changed. It used to be "attending funerals and inquiring about the health of foreign kings," as one former VP put it. Now? It’s about being the successor.
With the age of our political leaders being what it is, the "No. 2" is arguably the most important hire a President will ever make. It’s not about winning a state anymore; it’s about who is ready to take the wheel on day one.
Keep your eyes on the 2026 midterm results. The governors who over-perform in their home states this year—people like Wes Moore in Maryland or Glenn Youngkin in Virginia—will be the first names on everyone’s lips when the 2028 VP chatter starts for real.
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Next Steps for You:
If you're trying to keep up with the shifting landscape, your best bet is to monitor the Federal Election Commission (FEC) filings for "Leadership PACs." These are the slush funds that potential candidates use to travel and build support before they officially announce. Also, keep an eye on the National Governors Association meetings; that's where the real networking happens away from the cameras.