Trade wars are messy. Honestly, if you’ve been watching the back-and-forth between Washington and Brasília lately, you know it's a total rollercoaster. One week we’re hearing about 50% "super-tariffs" on everything from coffee to car parts, and the next, there’s an executive order dropping duties back to zero for your morning orange juice. It's confusing.
The reality of us tariffs on brazil isn't just a single tax rate. It is a shifting landscape of political leverage, national security claims, and specific product fights that change by the month.
The 50% Shock and the Great Ag Reprieve
Last year, the trade world caught fire when the Trump administration slapped a massive 50% tariff on a huge chunk of Brazilian goods. This wasn't a standard move. It was done under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), a heavy-duty tool usually reserved for national emergencies.
The justification? It was a mix of things—disputes over digital speech, environmental enforcement, and Brazil’s own taxes on American ethanol.
But then, November 2025 happened.
In a sudden pivot following a high-stakes phone call between President Trump and President Lula, the U.S. backed off on agriculture. They basically realized that taxing the world’s biggest coffee and juice supplier at 50% was just a tax on the American breakfast table.
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What’s actually exempt right now?
Right now, if you’re importing these from Brazil, the extra IEEPA tariffs have mostly vanished:
- Coffee and Cocoa: Back to zero or standard rates.
- Beef: The 40-50% surcharges were dropped in mid-November.
- Orange Juice: A huge relief for Florida blenders who rely on Brazilian fruit to meet demand.
- Açaí and Tropical Fruits: These were specifically carved out in the November 20, 2025 update.
It’s a win for the grocery store, but it’s not a total peace treaty.
The Steel and Aluminum Grind
While coffee drinkers can breathe, the industrial sector is still in the thick of it. The U.S. has revitalized Section 232 tariffs, which treat imported metals as a threat to national security.
Brazil used to have a special deal—a quota system where they could send a certain amount of steel to the U.S. without paying the extra 25%.
That’s gone.
In early 2025, the U.S. restored a hard 25% tariff on steel and 10% (often moving toward 25%) on aluminum from Brazil. No more "handshake" exemptions. The goal is simple: force American companies to buy American metal. But for Brazilian mills like Gerdau or Usiminas, this makes the U.S. market a very expensive place to play.
The Ethanol Bargaining Chip
If you want to understand where us tariffs on brazil are going next, look at the gas pump.
Brazil currently charges an 18% tariff on American ethanol. The U.S. hates this. In fact, it’s one of the main reasons the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) launched a Section 301 investigation into Brazil in July 2025.
There is a "deal" currently sitting on the table. Rumor has it that Brazil might drop its ethanol tax if the U.S. offers a permanent "pass" on Brazilian sugar or more beef access. It’s a classic trade-off. "You let our corn fuel in, we'll let your sugar and steaks in."
Why Your Business Should Care (The Real Risks)
Beyond the big headlines, there are smaller, "stealth" tariffs popping up. Just this morning, January 16, 2026, the International Trade Commission (USITC) ruled that "hard empty capsules" from Brazil—the kind used for vitamins and meds—are injuring U.S. industry.
That means new anti-dumping duties are coming.
This is the "whack-a-mole" reality of trade today. You might dodge the 50% blanket tariff, but you get hit by a 15% anti-dumping duty on a specific part or ingredient.
The Supreme Court Factor
There is a massive "what if" hanging over all of this. The U.S. Supreme Court is currently reviewing whether the President even has the legal right to use the IEEPA to slap these broad tariffs on countries like Brazil.
If the court strikes it down later this year, we could see a flood of refunds. We’re talking billions of dollars going back to importers.
Actionable Steps for Navigating 2026
If you are dealing with Brazilian imports, sitting still is the worst strategy. The rules are too fluid.
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- Check the HTSUS Codes Monthly: The November 2025 update exempted 238 specific tariff classifications. If your product code was on that list, you should be filing for rebates on any duties paid between July and November.
- Diversify if Industrial, Hold if Ag: If you’re in steel or chemicals, you need a Plan B. Those tariffs aren't going anywhere soon. If you're in food or coffee, you’re in a "safe zone" for now, but keep an eye on the Section 301 investigation results due later this year.
- Watch the USMCA Review: Even though Brazil isn't in the North American trade deal, the upcoming 2026 review of the USMCA will likely change how "rules of origin" work, which could impact how Brazilian components are treated when they come through Mexico.
The trade war isn't over; it's just getting more specific. Staying informed isn't just about reading the news—it's about watching the Executive Orders and the USITC bulletins like a hawk.