It is January 2026, and if you feel like the news cycle about the US on Ukraine and Russia has become a dizzying blur of "deal of the century" promises and stalled frontlines, you aren't alone. We’ve hit a weird, tense plateau. Honestly, the vibe in Washington is night and day compared to two years ago. We’ve shifted from the "as long as it takes" era of the Biden years to something much more unpredictable under the Trump administration.
Basically, everyone wants to know: did the US actually "solve" it? Or are we just looking at a slow-motion car crash?
The 20-Point Plan: Closer Than Ever?
Right before the New Year, specifically on December 28, 2025, President Trump hosted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at Mar-a-Lago. You’ve probably seen the photos. Both men came out looking like they’d just finished a marathon. Trump told the press that Moscow and Kyiv were “closer than ever” to a peace deal. Zelenskyy even went on record saying a revised 20-point peace plan was "90 percent agreed" upon.
That sounds great on paper. But here is the thing people get wrong: that last 10 percent is a mountain.
The core of the dispute hasn't budged much. While the US is pushing a business-oriented approach—focusing on reconstruction contracts and "energy security"—the Kremlin is still playing hardball. In early January 2026, Russian officials made it clear they won't accept European peacekeepers on the ground. Putin’s December speeches were equally grim, vowing to "liberate" what he calls historical lands.
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The Money Pit: Aid Isn't What It Used To Be
Let’s talk about the money. You’ve probably heard that the US is "stopping" aid. That’s not entirely true, but it’s definitely on a diet.
The National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for 2026, which Trump signed on December 18, 2025, allocates $400 million for the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI). To put that in perspective, back in April 2024, a single supplemental bill had $14 billion for the same thing. It’s a massive drop.
- The $400 Million: This is basically a placeholder. It covers new arms for 2026 and 2027 but doesn't guarantee they'll even be shipped.
- Intelligence Strings: The White House has used the threat of pulling intelligence sharing to pressure Kyiv into talks.
- The Congressional Guardrail: Interestingly, Congress added a rule saying the Pentagon has to report within 48 hours if they downgrade intelligence support. There is clearly some friction between the White House and the Hill.
Sanctions: The "Shadow Fleet" Problem
There is a huge misconception that sanctions have "crushed" the Russian economy. Kinda. Sorta. Not really.
By January 2026, Russia has basically turned into a fortress economy. They’ve extended their "anti-crisis" powers through the end of the year. They are still selling oil, mostly through a "shadow fleet" of tankers. While the Biden administration was aggressive about sanctioning these individual ships, the current US policy has shifted toward secondary sanctions on the buyers.
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Specifically, the US slapped a 25% tariff on Indian exports to the US in late 2025 because India is buying 1.8 million barrels of Russian oil a day. It’s a messy trade war that has widened the price gap between Russian Urals and Brent crude, but it hasn't stopped the flow.
What Most People Get Wrong
People think this is a binary choice: either the US supports Ukraine or it doesn't.
Actually, it's about leverage. The US is currently playing both sides of the fence. On one hand, the Treasury sanctioned Rosneft and Lukoil in October 2025 because Russia wasn't "serious" about the peace talks. On the other hand, the US is hesitant to pressure China too hard on fossil fuels.
It’s a balancing act that leaves the EU very nervous. European leaders are terrified that the US might pull its 76,000 troops out of Europe. The 2026 NDAA actually makes it harder for the President to do that, requiring a massive security assessment before any withdrawals.
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The Humanitarian Crisis Nobody Talks About
While the politicians argue about borders, the human cost is skyrocketing. The UN is asking for $2.3 billion for 2026 to help about 4 million people. In reality, about 10.8 million people in Ukraine need help.
US humanitarian funding has taken a hit, falling significantly since 2024. This has left a huge gap that the EU is struggling to fill. If you're looking for where the real "break" in the system is, it’s here. The "winter crisis within a crisis" is real, with power grids still being targeted and millions facing extreme cold without steady heat.
Why This Matters Right Now
The US on Ukraine and Russia situation is entering its most volatile phase since the 2022 invasion. We are looking at a "hybrid escalation." Russia is doubling down on subversion—interference in European elections and AI-generated disinformation—to wait out the US election cycle and see if the American public just gets bored.
So, what should you actually watch for in the next few months?
First, keep an eye on the "28-point plan" leaks. If the US can't get Russia to agree to a ceasefire by the spring thaw, expect those $400 million in USAI funds to stay frozen. Second, watch the oil prices. If the spread between Russian oil and the rest of the world shrinks, it means the US sanctions are failing.
Actionable Next Steps:
- Check the Source: When you see headlines about a "peace deal," look for whether both sides actually signed something or if it's just a "proposal." There is a big difference.
- Monitor the NDAA Reports: Quarterly reports on the "Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List" (PURL) will tell you if weapons are actually moving or just sitting in warehouses.
- Support Localized Aid: If you want to help, direct-to-community organizations in Ukraine are currently more effective than the massive global funds which are caught in a "financing collapse."
The war isn't over. It’s just changed its shape. The US is no longer the "arsenal of democracy"—it’s now the world’s most intense mediator, holding a stick in one hand and a contract in the other.