You’ve seen the headlines. One day it’s a terrifying story about a "migrant crime wave" taking over a major city, and the next, it’s a chart from a think tank claiming everything is fine. Honestly, it’s a lot to keep track of. When people talk about us immigrant crime statistics, the conversation usually gets loud, fast. But if we pull back the curtain and look at the actual numbers—not just the viral clips—the reality is a lot more nuanced than you’d think.
Basically, the data doesn’t support the idea that more immigrants lead to more crime. In fact, it often shows the exact opposite.
The Reality Behind US Immigrant Crime Statistics
Most people assume that if you add millions of people to a country, crime has to go up. It feels like common sense. But researchers like Ran Abramitzky from Stanford and Elisa Jácome from Northwestern have been digging into this for years. They looked at 150 years of Census data, going all the way back to 1870.
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What they found is kinda wild. Since 1960, immigrants have consistently been incarcerated at lower rates than people born in the US. Today, that gap is massive. Immigrants are about 60% less likely to be in prison than US-born citizens. If you compare them only to US-born white men, they’re still 30% less likely to be locked up.
This isn’t just a fluke in the national numbers. Take Texas, for example. Texas is basically the only state that actually tracks the immigration status of everyone who gets arrested. A 2024 study by the Cato Institute using Texas Department of Public Safety data found that undocumented immigrants had a homicide conviction rate of 2.4 per 100,000. For native-born Texans? That number was 3.0.
It turns out that "illegal immigrant crime" is often a small fraction of the total criminal activity in the state.
Why do the numbers look this way?
It’s not because immigrants are "better" people. It’s mostly about incentives. Think about it: if you’ve traveled thousands of miles to find work or safety, the last thing you want is a run-in with the police. Getting arrested doesn’t just mean a fine or a few months in jail; for an immigrant, it often means immediate deportation and losing everything they’ve built.
There's also the "selection effect." People who decide to move to another country for a better life are usually the ones who are motivated to work hard. They aren't the ones looking to start trouble.
Comparing Different Types of Crime
When we talk about us immigrant crime statistics, we have to break it down by the type of offense. Otherwise, you’re just looking at a big, messy pile of data.
Violent Crime and Public Safety
Most studies show that as the immigrant population in a city grows, the violent crime rate either stays flat or actually goes down. A 2025 report from Northeastern University pointed out that between 1980 and 2024, as the foreign-born population in the US more than doubled (hitting 15.6% last year), violent crime nationwide fell by a staggering amount.
Just last year, between 2023 and 2024, violent crime dropped by over 10% even as immigration was a major news story.
Federal Offenses and Fraud
Now, the federal system is a bit different. About 34.7% of people sentenced in federal courts in 2024 were non-citizens. That sounds like a lot, right? But here’s the catch: the vast majority of those cases—about 72%—were for "immigration offenses." Basically, the "crime" they committed was being in the country without papers or re-entering after deportation.
If you look at something like welfare fraud, the numbers flip again. In 2024, non-citizens were actually 8% less likely to be convicted of benefits fraud than US citizens.
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The Sanctuary City Debate
You’ve probably heard that "sanctuary cities" are dangerous. The idea is that by not cooperating with ICE, these cities are letting criminals roam free.
The data says otherwise.
A study from the Brennan Center for Justice compared cities with sanctuary policies to those without them. They found no significant difference in crime rates. In fact, many sanctuary cities like New York saw major drops in crime in 2023 and 2024. The reason is usually that when immigrants aren’t afraid the local police will deport them, they’re more likely to report crimes and help solve cases.
Misconceptions That Stick Around
So if the data is so clear, why does the "migrant crime" narrative feel so real?
Part of it is just how our brains work. When a horrific crime is committed by an undocumented person, it’s a massive news story. It’s tragic, and it’s specific. But we don’t see news stories every day about the millions of people who went to work, paid their taxes, and didn't commit a crime.
Individual tragedies are real, but they aren't a trend.
Also, it’s worth noting that the "crime wave" often gets confused with the "border crisis." Thousands of people crossing the border is a logistical and political challenge, for sure. But "more people crossing" doesn't automatically equal "more people committing crimes" once they get into the interior of the country.
Victimization Rates
One thing people rarely talk about is how often immigrants are the victims of crime.
According to a 2025 Cato paper, immigrants are 44% less likely to be victims of violent offenses than people born in the US. Why? Because they tend to live in tight-knit communities where they look out for each other. Interestingly, when an immigrant is a victim, they are 29% more likely to report the crime to the police than a native-born American.
They want the system to work.
How to Look at the Data Yourself
If you want to stay informed without the political spin, you’ve gotta know where to look.
- The FBI Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR): This is the gold standard for general crime trends, though it doesn't always break things down by immigration status.
- Texas Department of Public Safety (DPS): Since they actually track status, their annual reports are the most detailed look you can get at this specific issue.
- The American Community Survey (ACS): This is where researchers get their data on who is in prison and where they were born.
Sorta makes you wonder why more states don't track this stuff as clearly as Texas does. It would certainly make these arguments a lot simpler.
Actionable Steps for Understanding the Data
If you’re trying to navigate the noise surrounding us immigrant crime statistics, here are a few ways to ground your perspective:
- Distinguish between local and federal data. Federal crime stats are heavily skewed by immigration-status violations. If you want to know if your neighborhood is safe, look at local police department reports on violent and property crimes.
- Check the denominator. Whenever you see a number like "1,000 arrests," ask: "Out of how many people?" Rates per 100,000 people are the only way to compare different groups fairly.
- Look for peer-reviewed studies. Think tanks on both the left and right have biases. Stick to studies published in academic journals or from non-partisan sources like the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER).
- Follow the long-term trends. A single weekend of crime in one city isn't a statistic; it's an anecdote. Look at 10-year or 20-year trends to see if immigration levels actually correlate with safety.
Ultimately, the data suggests that most immigrants are here for the same reason everyone else is: to build a life. While high-profile cases will always make the news, the broader statistics show a population that is generally more law-abiding than the people already living here.
Staying updated on these reports through the Bureau of Justice Statistics or the Pew Research Center will help you see the full picture as the 2026 data continues to roll in.