Wall Street can be a loud place. Usually, the headlines are screaming about AI chips or the latest electric vehicle drama, but lately, a massive food distributor from Rosemont, Illinois, has been quietly stealing the spotlight. I’m talking about US Foods (USFD). Honestly, if you haven’t looked at the ticker in a week, you might have missed that the us foods stock price today is hovering near its all-time high of $85.72.
That is a serious move.
We’re not just talking about a lucky day. Over the last week alone, the stock has seen nearly a 10% return. If you go back five years, investors are looking at gains of over 140%. It’s the kind of steady, relentless growth that makes value investors drool while the rest of the world is distracted by more "glamorous" tech stocks.
What is actually driving the us foods stock price today?
Markets don't just hand out record highs for no reason. Last Friday, January 16, 2026, the stock closed up roughly 0.6% after a week of massive momentum. It’s sitting on a market cap of about $19.1 billion. Why? Well, management basically just told everyone, "We’ve got this."
On January 12, US Foods reaffirmed its 2025 guidance. They are calling for net sales growth between 4% and 5% and—this is the big one—double-digit growth in adjusted EBITDA and EPS. When a company confirms these kinds of targets right before a major event like the Needham Growth Conference, it’s a massive signal of confidence. It tells the market that even if people are worried about inflation or a "soft" restaurant environment, US Foods is finding ways to squeeze out more profit.
The Q3 numbers that set the stage
You can't understand where the price is today without looking at the most recent earnings. In the third quarter of 2025, US Foods reported:
👉 See also: Joann Fabrics New Hartford: What Most People Get Wrong
- Net Sales: $10.19 billion (up 4.8%)
- Adjusted EPS: $1.07 (beating the $1.03 analyst consensus)
- Adjusted EBITDA: $505 million
It wasn't a "blowout" in terms of revenue—it was pretty much in line with what people expected. But the profitability? That was the surprise. They managed to grow adjusted EBITDA by 11% even though total case volume only rose 1.1%.
How do they do that?
Basically, they are getting better at picking their battles. Independent restaurant volume—the high-margin stuff—grew 3.9%. Meanwhile, they let lower-margin chain business slide by 2.4%. It’s a classic "work smarter, not harder" play. They are focusing on hospitals, independent bistros, and hotels rather than fighting over the scraps of low-margin fast-food contracts.
Is the stock getting too expensive?
This is where things get tricky. If you look at the P/E ratio, it’s sitting around 35. That's high. For a food distributor, that usually feels like nosebleed territory. The industry average for consumer retailing is usually closer to 21 or 22.
But here’s the counter-argument.
✨ Don't miss: Jamie Dimon Explained: Why the King of Wall Street Still Matters in 2026
Some analysts, including those at Simply Wall St, have run Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models that suggest the "intrinsic" value of USFD could be over $200. That sounds crazy, right? They’re basing that on the idea that free cash flow is going to explode from about $1 billion today to over $2.6 billion by 2035.
Whether you believe that or not, the "Strong Buy" consensus from 87% of Wall Street analysts suggests that the pros aren't scared of this valuation yet. They see a target price average of $90.00, with some bulls like UBS and Bernstein aiming as high as $96 or even $102.
The "secret sauce" of share buybacks
You've probably heard about companies "returning value to shareholders." Usually, that's code for dividends, but US Foods doesn't pay a dividend. Not a cent. Instead, they are obsessed with buybacks.
During the third quarter of 2025 alone, they bought back $335 million worth of their own stock. They still have nearly $467 million left in their current $1 billion authorization. When a company reduces the number of shares outstanding, each remaining share becomes more valuable. It’s a mechanical way to boost the stock price, and CEO David Flitman seems to be leaning into it hard.
Risks that could spoil the party
It’s not all steak and lobster. There are some real risks that could stall the us foods stock price today or in the coming months:
🔗 Read more: Influence: The Psychology of Persuasion Book and Why It Still Actually Works
- Case Volume Growth: While profit margins are expanding, total volume growth of 1.1% is... okay. It’s not great. If the economy cools and people stop eating out, that volume could turn negative.
- Debt: They have about $4.9 billion in net debt. While their leverage ratio has improved to 2.6x (down from 2.8x), it’s still something to watch in a high-interest-rate world.
- The "Great Corn Surprise": Just last week, the USDA dropped a report showing record corn yields and a massive increase in harvested acres. This is generally bearish for agricultural prices. While lower input costs can be good for distributors, it can also lead to deflation, which sometimes makes it harder to maintain high top-line revenue numbers.
Strategic moves on the horizon
US Foods isn't just sitting still. They recently signed an agreement to acquire Shetakis, a move designed to bolster their presence in the West, particularly in the Las Vegas market. They are also leaning heavily into "MOX" (Margin Optimization) initiatives. This is corporate-speak for using better data to figure out exactly how much to charge for a box of frozen chicken or a crate of tomatoes to maximize profit without losing the customer.
Actionable insights for investors
If you're looking at USFD today, here is the reality: you are buying at the top. Sometimes that’s fine because the company is on a breakout path, but it requires caution.
Watch the February 12 earnings report. This will be the next major catalyst. Analysts are expecting an EPS of about $0.98. If they beat that and raise their 2026 outlook, $90 is an easy target. If they show any sign of volume slowing down in their independent restaurant segment, we could see a healthy "pullback" toward the $75 range.
Check your portfolio's exposure to the "food-away-from-home" sector. If you already own Sysco (SYY) or Performance Food Group (PFGC), adding US Foods might be redundant. But if you want a pure-play efficiency story, this is it.
Monitor the 52-week range. The stock has come a long way from its $57.36 low. A 24% gain in a year for a distribution company is significant.
Keep an eye on the "fair value" estimates versus the market price. While the DCF models suggest massive upside, the P/E ratio suggests the stock is currently "priced for perfection." There is very little room for management to miss their targets in 2026 without the stock taking a hit.
To stay ahead of the next move, you should mark February 12 on your calendar for the full fiscal year 2025 results. That report will likely determine if the stock breaks into the $90s or consolidates after this massive January run. For now, the trend is clearly up, supported by aggressive buybacks and a management team that is laser-focused on high-margin customers.