Arizona is weird. Not "funky art gallery in Sedona" weird, but politically, fundamentally unpredictable. If you were looking for a clean narrative in the us election results Arizona produced this time around, honestly, you're out of luck. The state just spent a few weeks proving that it doesn't belong to any one party, no matter what the national pundits try to tell you on Tuesday nights.
Think about it. We saw a state that gave Donald Trump a massive 5.5% margin of victory—the biggest for a Republican since 2012—while simultaneously electing a progressive Democrat, Ruben Gallego, to the U.S. Senate. People aren't just "splitting tickets" anymore; they're basically rewriting the manual on how to be a swing state.
The Big Red Wave for the Top of the Ticket
Let’s get the numbers out of the way because they’re actually pretty staggering when you compare them to 2020. Donald Trump didn't just win Arizona; he dominated the presidential map. He took 52.2% of the vote, leaving Kamala Harris with 46.7%. That’s a raw vote count of 1,770,242 for Trump against 1,582,860 for Harris.
Remember 2020? Joe Biden won this place by a razor-thin 10,457 votes. This time, Trump didn't need a microscope to find his margin. He won by over 187,000 votes.
What changed? Maricopa County. It's the big kahuna. It holds about 60% of the state’s population, and it flipped back to red for the presidency. Trump carried Maricopa by roughly 3 points. In a place where "as Maricopa goes, so goes the state," that was basically the ballgame for the White House.
But here’s where it gets kinda wild. While Trump was coasting, the "down-ballot" races were telling a completely different story.
Why Ruben Gallego Won While Harris Lost
If you’re a Republican, the Senate result hurts. Ruben Gallego is headed to D.C. as Arizona’s first Latino Senator, beating Kari Lake by about 2.4 percentage points.
Gallego pulled in 1,676,335 votes (50.1%) while Lake finished with 1,595,761 (47.7%). Look at those numbers again. Gallego actually got more votes in Maricopa County than Kamala Harris did. He won the county by 5 points, whereas Harris lost it by 3.
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Why the mismatch? You've gotta look at the "McCain Republicans." Kari Lake spent a significant portion of her political rise attacking the legacy of the late Senator John McCain. In Arizona, that’s a dangerous game. Gallego, a Marine veteran with a gritty personal story, managed to peel away just enough of those moderate, suburban voters who liked Trump’s economy but couldn't stomach Lake’s style.
The us election results Arizona reported show a 12% mismatch rate between the presidential and Senate results. That's the highest we've seen in years. Basically, a chunk of Arizonans walked into the booth, voted for Trump, and then immediately voted for the Democrat for Senate.
The Abortion and Border Paradox
If you want to understand the modern Arizona voter, look at the ballot measures. This is where the "purple" reality of the state really shines through.
Arizonans passed Proposition 139 with a massive 61.6% of the vote. This officially enshrined the fundamental right to abortion in the state constitution. It was a huge win for the "Arizona for Abortion Access" coalition. People wanted reproductive rights protected, period.
But wait. At the very same time, those same voters passed Proposition 314.
This is the "border" measure. It allows local police to arrest people for crossing the border illegally outside of official ports of entry. It passed with 62.6% of the vote.
So, the average Arizona voter says: "I want abortion to be legal, and I want the border to be much tighter." Most national political parties aren't built to handle that kind of voter. They want you to pick a side. Arizona refused.
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House Races and the Maricopa Machine
The U.S. House races were another battleground that refused to give an inch. In the 1st District, David Schweikert (the Republican incumbent) managed to hold off Amish Shah by a margin of 51.9% to 48.1%. It was closer than he probably liked, but a win is a win.
Over in the 6th District, Juan Ciscomani held on by his fingernails, winning with exactly 50.0% of the vote against Kirsten Engel’s 47.5%.
The Republicans also swept the big county-wide offices in Maricopa.
- Jerry Sheridan flipped the Sheriff’s office back to Republican control with 53.4%.
- Justin Heap won the Recorder's office (the folks who run the elections) with 52.2%.
- Rachel Mitchell kept her spot as County Attorney with 54.5%.
It seems like for local governance, Arizona is leaning back toward the GOP, but for the highest legislative offices, they still want a check and balance.
Voter Turnout: The 80% Club
Maricopa County Recorder's office reported a staggering 80.3% voter turnout. That’s historic. Only three times since the 1970s has Arizona seen turnout top 80%: 1980 (Reagan’s landslide), 2020, and now 2024.
The way we vote has shifted, too.
- 53% of people used early mail-in ballots.
- 11% voted early in person.
- 30% dropped off their ballots on or before Election Day.
- Only about 12% actually stood in line on Tuesday morning.
This "two-page ballot" era made things slow. Because the ballot was so long, it effectively doubled the amount of paper the machines had to process. That’s why we were all sitting around for a week waiting for the final us election results Arizona numbers to go official.
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What Most People Get Wrong About These Results
A lot of people think Arizona is "turning red again." That's a bit of a simplification.
If Arizona were "red," Kari Lake would be a Senator right now. If it were "blue," Kamala Harris would have won the 11 electoral votes.
The truth? Arizona is a state of "unaffiliated" thinkers. As of late 2025, registered Republicans make up about 35.6% of the state, while Democrats are at 28.2%. The massive "Other" or Independent block is at 34.3%.
These are the people who decided the election. They are economically conservative but socially moderate. They worry about the price of gas and the security of the border, but they also don't want the government in their doctor's office.
Actionable Insights for Following Arizona Politics:
- Watch the Independents: Don't look at party registration; look at the "Other" block. They are the only group that matters in a general election here.
- The Maricopa/Pima Divide: If a candidate can't win Maricopa, they have to win Pima (Tucson) by 20+ points just to stay in the game. Harris won Pima by 15, which wasn't nearly enough to offset her Maricopa loss.
- Veterans Matter: Arizona has a huge military and veteran population. Gallego’s service record was a shield that protected him from being labeled "too progressive" for a swing state.
- Prepare for the Wait: Arizona's "ballot curing" laws and high volume of mail-in drop-offs mean we will likely never have results on election night. It’s just how the system is built to ensure accuracy.
The 2024 cycle proved that Arizona isn't a trophy for either party. It's a place where you have to earn every single vote, and even then, the voters might just decide to split the difference.
Next Steps for Staying Informed:
If you want to dig deeper into the precinct-level data, the Arizona Secretary of State’s website offers a full breakdown of the certified results. You can also monitor the Maricopa County Recorder’s dashboard for updates on how they are preparing for the 2026 midterms, as those local administrative changes will likely affect how fast we see results next time around.