Walk into any bank in Baku today, January 15, 2026, and you’ll see the same number staring back at you that you would have seen in 2018. It’s 1.70. Since 2017, the US Dollar to Azerbaijani Manat exchange rate has been one of the most predictable, yet controversial, financial fixtures in the Caucasus.
While the Euro dances around and the Russian Ruble swings like a pendulum, the manat (AZN) stays put. It’s basically the financial equivalent of a "do not disturb" sign. But behind that flat line on the currency chart lies a complex machinery of oil reserves, central bank interventions, and a government that is terrified of a repeat of the 2015 "Black Sunday" devaluations.
The 1.70 Peg: Stability or Illusion?
Honestly, calling it a "market rate" is a bit of a stretch. The Central Bank of Azerbaijan (CBA) maintains a de facto peg. This means the 1.70 rate isn't set by traders in London or New York shouting into phones; it’s maintained through sheer willpower and massive cash injections from the State Oil Fund (SOFAZ).
You’ve probably heard people say the manat is "overvalued." They might be right. In late 2025, several analysts from the IMF and ING Group pointed out that while global oil prices were sliding toward $60 per barrel, the manat didn't budge. If this were a free-floating currency, the US Dollar to Azerbaijani Manat rate would likely be much higher.
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But Azerbaijan isn't interested in market purity. They want price stability. CBA Governor Taleh Kazimov has been very vocal about using the exchange rate as an "anchor" for inflation. Basically, if the manat stays strong, imports (like iPhones and German cars) stay affordable, which keeps the local population happy and inflation within that 4±2% target.
Why the Rate Doesn't Move
- SOFAZ Auctions: Every week, the State Oil Fund sells off millions of dollars to local banks. This keeps the market flooded with USD, preventing the manat from weakening.
- Oil Dependence: About 90% of Azerbaijan's exports are oil and gas. When oil is above $65, the government has enough "dry powder" to keep the rate at 1.70 indefinitely.
- Fear of 2015: Anyone who lived through the 2015 devaluations, where the manat lost half its value against the dollar in a few months, remembers the chaos. The government is doing everything to avoid a sequel.
What This Means for Your Wallet in 2026
If you’re traveling to Baku or doing business there, the math is easy. 100 dollars gets you 170 manat. Simple.
However, there’s a catch. Even though the official rate is 1.70, you won’t actually get that at a currency exchange booth. Most banks charge a small spread, usually around 0.5% to 1%. So, you’re realistically looking at getting 1.69 or 1.685.
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Pro tip: Don’t bother hunting for a "better" rate in the city center. Because the CBA controls the supply so tightly, the rates are almost identical everywhere from Nizami Street to the Heydar Aliyev International Airport.
The Cost of Living Reality
Even though the US Dollar to Azerbaijani Manat rate is frozen, prices in Baku are rising. In early 2026, inflation was hovering around 5.7%. This creates a weird paradox: your dollars buy the same amount of manat as last year, but those manat buy fewer kebabs and less petrol.
The non-oil sector is growing—up about 3.2% recently—but it’s not enough to decouple the currency from energy prices yet. If you’re an expat getting paid in USD, you’re actually losing purchasing power every month because of this "frozen" rate.
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The "What If" Scenario: Could the Peg Break?
Nothing lasts forever. In its 2026 monetary policy statement, the CBA admitted that "external risks" are at an all-time high.
If Brent crude oil drops below $50 and stays there for a year, the math for the 1.70 peg stops working. ING estimates that for every $1 drop in oil, Azerbaijan loses about $300 million in export revenue. At some point, the cost of defending the manat becomes higher than the benefit of stability.
But don't expect a sudden crash. The government has learned from the past. If a change happens, it will likely be a "managed crawl"—a slow, painful slide to 1.75 or 1.80 rather than a midnight devaluation. For now, the CBA’s $11.4 billion in reserves and SOFAZ’s $62 billion cushion mean the 1.70 rate is safe for the foreseeable future.
Practical Steps for Handling AZN
- Skip the Black Market: There isn't really a "street" rate that's better than the bank rate because the supply is so strictly managed. Stick to official banks.
- Use Plastic: Credit cards are widely accepted in Baku, and your bank will usually give you a rate very close to 1.70, though watch out for those 3% foreign transaction fees.
- Watch the Oil Ticker: If you see "Azeri Light" oil prices tanking on the news, that's your signal to maybe not hold too much manat in your savings account.
- ATM Limits: Most ATMs in Azerbaijan have a withdrawal limit of 200 to 500 AZN per transaction. If you need a large amount of cash, you'll need to make multiple hits or go inside a branch with your passport.
The US Dollar to Azerbaijani Manat story is essentially a story of a managed economy trying to buy time. As long as the oil flows and the prices stay "good enough," 1.70 is the number you’ll live with. It’s boring, it’s predictable, and for a country in a volatile region, that’s exactly how the government likes it.
To manage your currency risk, keep your long-term savings in USD or Euro but maintain enough AZN for your monthly expenses, as the local interest rates on manat deposits (currently around 6-7%) are much higher than dollar accounts, offering a slight hedge against domestic inflation.