It's 2026, and if you’ve been watching the US dollar rate in BD, you know it’s been a wild ride. Honestly, anyone telling you they predicted exactly where the Taka would land this year is probably lying. We've seen the rate hover around 122.21 BDT as of mid-January 2026, but that number doesn't tell the whole story.
Prices aren't just digits on a screen at the Bangladesh Bank. They are the reason your grocery bill feels like a car payment. They are the reason businesses are sweating over LCs. The Taka is in the middle of a massive "reconstruction" phase, as some experts call it, and it's getting messy.
The New Reality of the Floating Rate
For years, we lived in a world of "managed" rates. The central bank basically sat on the Taka to keep it from moving too much. That's over. Since mid-2025, Bangladesh Bank shifted to a flexible, market-based exchange rate system.
What does that actually mean for you?
It means the US dollar rate in BD now breathes with the market. If there's more demand for imports, the rate climbs. If remittances from our brothers and sisters abroad flood in, the Taka gains some muscle. Just this month, the central bank was actually buying dollars—about $81 million in a single auction on January 11—to prevent the dollar from losing too much value.
Think about that. After years of desperately trying to save the Taka, the authorities are now occasionally stepping in to stop it from getting too strong, too fast. It's a weird flip, right?
Why the Rate Is Stuck Around 122
If you look at the charts from early January 2026, you'll see a lot of "zig-zagging."
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- January 2: 120.72 BDT
- January 11: 122.29 BDT
- January 13: 122.21 BDT
This isn't just random noise. It's a tug-of-war. On one side, we have record-breaking remittance inflows. We’re talking over $30 billion in the last fiscal year. People are finally moving away from hundi because the legal channel rates are actually competitive now. When the "official" and "kerb" (open market) rates aren't miles apart, people choose the bank. It's safer.
On the other side, we have the IMF requirements. Bangladesh is graduating from the Least Developed Countries (LDC) group in November 2026. To get there, the IMF has been breathing down our necks about reforms. They want "transparency," which is code for "stop faking the numbers." This pressure has forced the central bank to keep the US dollar rate in BD realistic, even when it hurts.
Why the US dollar rate in BD Still Feels High
You might be wondering: "If we have $32 billion in reserves, why isn't the dollar back to 100 Taka?"
Simple answer: Inflation.
Nuanced answer: Debt.
Bangladesh is currently managing a massive mountain of non-performing loans (NPLs). According to recent data, these "bad loans" hit over $28 billion late last year. When the banking sector is fragile, investors get twitchy. They want dollars because they don't trust the local currency to hold its value over the long term.
Also, look at the Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER). Even though the Taka has depreciated, our internal inflation is still around 8-10%. This means the "purchasing power" of your Taka is shrinking faster than the exchange rate suggests. Basically, you're getting hit from both sides—the dollar is expensive, and your money buys less than it used to inside the country.
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The "Kerb Market" vs. Official Rates
If you've ever gone to Motijheel or a money changer in Gulshan, you know the "official" rate is sometimes a suggestion. However, the gap is closing. In the past, the difference between the bank rate and the open market was 5 or 10 Taka. Today, it’s much tighter, often within 1-2 Taka.
This stability is why we’re seeing the US dollar rate in BD settle. The central bank now publishes a Reference Exchange Rate (RR) twice a day. They look at actual trades between banks and customers and say, "Okay, this is the real price." It’s a lot more honest than it used to be.
What Happens When You Open an LC?
For business owners, the nightmare of 2024 and 2025—where banks simply refused to open Letters of Credit—has eased, but it's not gone. The liquidity support the Bangladesh Bank is providing to "stressed banks" is a double-edged sword. It keeps the banks alive, but it keeps the Taka under pressure.
If you're importing capital machinery or raw materials for the RMG (Readymade Garment) sector, you're likely paying closer to 123 or 124 BDT once fees and margins are added. It’s the cost of doing business in a post-transition economy.
Real Numbers You Need to Know
Let's get specific. As of January 2026:
- Gross Reserves: Roughly $32.44 billion.
- IMF-standard (BPM6) Reserves: Closer to $27.85 billion.
- Remittance Growth: Up nearly 80% in the first few days of January compared to last year.
- Policy Rate: Standing firm at 10.00%.
These numbers suggest that while the US dollar rate in BD is high, it is finally stable. We aren't seeing the 10% overnight crashes we saw a couple of years ago. The "necessary reconstruction" Al Jazeera and other outlets have been talking about is actually happening. It's painful, but it's happening.
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Misconceptions About the Dollar "Collapse"
You'll hear people on Facebook saying the Taka is going to 150. Honestly? Unlikely in the short term. The central bank has shown it has enough "dry powder" (dollars in reserve) to step in if things get crazy.
Another myth: "The government is just printing money to fix this."
Actually, the government has been showing a surprising amount of fiscal restraint. They’ve been repaying loans to banks rather than borrowing more. Between July and October 2025, they repaid over 5 billion Taka. This frees up money for private businesses and takes the pressure off the exchange rate.
What Should You Actually Do?
If you're an individual or a small business owner, the "wait and see" approach is over. The current US dollar rate in BD is the new baseline. Don't expect a return to the 90s or even 100s anytime soon.
- For Travelers: Buy your dollars early. The fluctuations are smaller now, but the trend is still slightly upward as we approach the LDC graduation in November.
- For Remitters: Use the banking channels. With the 2.5% incentive and the market-based rate, the "Hundi" advantage has basically evaporated.
- For Importers: Look at the 270-day credit facilities. The Bangladesh Bank recently extended these for items like LPG, which helps manage cash flow when the dollar is pricey.
The economy isn't in freefall. It’s just expensive. We are paying the price for years of keeping the Taka artificially strong. Now that we’ve ripped the band-aid off, the wound is starting to heal, but the scar—the 122 BDT rate—is likely here to stay for the foreseeable future.
Actionable Steps for Navigating the Current Rate
- Track the Reference Rate: Check the Bangladesh Bank website daily at 11:00 AM and 5:00 PM. This is the most accurate "real world" price for the US dollar rate in BD.
- Hedge Your Costs: If you are a manufacturer, price your goods based on a 125 BDT dollar. It gives you a buffer for the small fluctuations that happen under the new floating system.
- Diversify Holdings: If you have the option, keep a portion of your business assets in export-earning accounts (ERQ). It's the best natural hedge against Taka depreciation.
- Monitor the November Graduation: As we get closer to November 2026, expect some volatility. Trade preferences will change, and the market will react. Plan your large purchases or currency conversions before the Q4 crunch hits.
The era of "cheap dollars" in Bangladesh is a memory. Understanding the mechanics of the market-based system is the only way to stay ahead of the curve.