So, you’re looking at the UPST stock price today, and honestly, it’s a bit of a rollercoaster. As of mid-January 2026, Upstart Holdings is sitting right around $47.91, which is about a 3% jump from where it closed yesterday. If you've been following this company since the wild highs of 2021, you know that $40 to $50 range feels like a different universe compared to the $400 peaks of the past. But context is everything.
Markets are weirdly optimistic right now. Most of that comes from the fact that we just saw the Federal Reserve signal another potential round of rate cuts. For a company like Upstart, which basically lives and dies by the cost of borrowing, that’s like oxygen.
Why the Upstart Stock Price Today Is Moving
Basically, Upstart isn't just a "lending company" anymore—at least not in the eyes of the people actually moving the needle on the stock. It’s an AI infrastructure play. Today’s price action is largely a reaction to the news that MyPoint Credit Union just joined the Upstart Referral Network.
It might sound like small potatoes, but these credit union partnerships are the "funding backbone" that keeps Upstart alive. When banks get scared, they stop buying loans. When they stop buying loans, Upstart's revenue vanishes. By locking in smaller, more resilient credit unions, they’re trying to build a moat that isn't so easily dried up by a bad macro environment.
The 2026 Earnings Tease
Everyone is holding their breath for February 10, 2026. That’s when Upstart is scheduled to drop its full-year 2025 results. If you look at the Q3 numbers we saw a few months back, things were actually looking... okay? Not "buy a yacht" okay, but "we might not go bankrupt" okay. They hit $277 million in revenue for Q3, which was a massive 71% jump year-over-year.
More importantly, they actually turned a GAAP profit of about $31.8 million. For a growth stock that’s been bleeding cash for years, that was a huge "I told you so" moment for CEO Dave Girouard.
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The Analyst Divorce: Highs of $108, Lows of $10
If you ask ten different analysts what UPST is worth, you’ll get eleven different answers. It's hilarious, really.
- Needham is out here with a price target of $108. They’re the "AI true believers."
- Goldman Sachs remains the party pooper, maintaining a "Sell" with targets often hovering in the $15 to $54 range depending on the month.
- Truist Securities just initiated coverage a couple of weeks ago with a $59 target and a "Buy" rating.
The median target is roughly $57.51. If you believe the bulls, the current price in the high $40s is a steal. If you believe the bears, the company's reliance on subprime-adjacent borrowers in a "K-shaped" economy (where the poor get poorer and the rich get richer) is a ticking time bomb.
The Reality of AI Underwriting in 2026
People talk about "AI" like it's some magic wand, but for Upstart, it’s a very specific survival mechanism. Their model looks at 1,000+ variables. They don’t just care about your FICO score; they care about where you went to school, what you studied, and how long you’ve held your job.
Currently, about 90% of their loans are fully automated. No human. No paperwork. Just a click and the money is there.
But there's a catch.
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In early 2026, we’re seeing a weird split in the consumer market. High-income households are doing great. Low-income households are starting to see subprime auto delinquencies tick up. Because Upstart often plays in that "fair credit" space (the 600-700 FICO crowd), they are the "canary in the coal mine" for the entire US economy. If the UPST stock price today starts to sag despite good news, it’s usually because big institutional investors are worried that the average American is running out of gas.
What Most People Get Wrong
The biggest misconception? That Upstart is a bank. It’s not. It’s a marketplace.
Upstart doesn’t want to hold these loans on its balance sheet. It wants to act like a toll booth. It connects you (the borrower) to a bank (the lender) and takes a fee. When interest rates were 0%, this was the easiest business in the world. When rates spiked, the "toll booth" got quiet because nobody wanted to drive through it.
Now that we’re in a "shallow easing" cycle—meaning the Fed is slowly, painfully lowering rates—the toll booth is reopening.
Comparing the Competition
Upstart isn't alone anymore. In 2026, the field is crowded.
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- SoFi: They have a bank charter, which gives them a huge advantage in holding their own deposits.
- LendingClub: The old guard. They’ve pivoted to a digital bank model too.
- Upgrade: They’ve become the "fair credit" king, often allowing cosigners, which Upstart still doesn't do.
Upstart’s advantage remains its speed and its data. While SoFi is trying to be your "everything app" for finance, Upstart is doubling down on being the smartest brain in the room for pricing risk.
Is the "Short Squeeze" Still a Thing?
You’ll still see people on Reddit and X (formerly Twitter) screaming about a short squeeze. Short interest has hovered around 25% for what feels like an eternity. While a 3% gain like we’re seeing today can definitely put some pressure on the shorts, we haven't seen a true "moon shot" in a long time. The market has grown up. People are looking for EBITDA and Contribution Margin, not just memes.
Actionable Insights for Investors
If you're looking at the UPST stock price today and wondering if you should pull the trigger, here's how to actually think about it without the hype:
- Watch the 10-Year Treasury: If the 10-year yield drops, Upstart usually pops. It’s almost a 1:1 correlation at this point.
- Check the "Delinquency" Headlines: Don't just look at Upstart's news. Look at what Ford Motor Credit or Ally Financial are saying about auto loan defaults. If people stop paying their car notes, they’ll stop paying their Upstart personal loans too.
- The February 10 Catalyst: This is the big one. If they miss their revenue guidance of $288 million or show a surprise GAAP loss, the stock could easily give back all its 2026 gains in a single afternoon.
- Portfolio Sizing: Honestly, this is still a "high-beta" stock. It moves 5% on a Tuesday for no reason. It’s a speculative play, not a "set it and forget it" index fund.
Basically, Upstart is a bet on two things: that their AI is actually smarter than a FICO score, and that the US consumer isn't about to fall off a cliff. If you believe both, the $47 price tag looks like a bargain. If you think the "K-shaped" economy is going to snap, you might want to wait for the next dip below $40.
Whatever you do, keep an eye on those credit union partnerships—they are the real story behind the price.
Next Steps for You:
Check the current yield on the 10-Year Treasury Note; if it’s trending downward today, it explains the current momentum in UPST. Then, set a price alert for February 10 to catch the Q4 earnings volatility.