College football is broken. At least, that is what the "old guard" will tell you while staring at a scoreboard that makes absolutely zero sense. If you told a fan three years ago that the 2026 National Championship would feature the Indiana Hoosiers and the Miami Hurricanes—and that Indiana would be the undefeated No. 1 seed—they’d have asked to see your medical records.
But here we are.
The chaos isn't just a fluke. It's the new reality. We are witnessing upsets in college football today that don't just shift the rankings; they dismantle the entire hierarchy of the sport. Alabama didn't just lose; they got embarrassed. Ohio State didn't just fall; they were physically handled by a double-digit seed.
Honestly, the "blue blood" era feels like it’s on life support.
The New Year’s Day Massacre
Let’s talk about January 1, 2026. This wasn't just a holiday; it was a total demolition of expectations. The Rose Bowl used to be where Big Ten teams went to realize they couldn't keep up with the SEC's speed. Not this time. No. 1 Indiana—yes, that Indiana—lined up across from Kalen DeBoer’s Alabama and proceeded to tear them to shreds.
Final score: 38-3.
It wasn't a "fluke" win. Indiana’s defense held the Crimson Tide to a measly 23 rushing yards. Fernando Mendoza, the Heisman-winning quarterback who basically became a folk hero in Bloomington overnight, didn't even have to break a sweat in the fourth quarter. Alabama boosters aren't just mad; they're shell-shocked.
Then you had the Sugar Bowl.
Georgia was the SEC champion. They were the "safe" bet. But Ole Miss and Trinidad Chambliss had other plans. In a 39-34 thriller, the Rebels proved that Lane Kiffin’s departure for LSU didn't kill the program—it just made them meaner. Georgia’s vaunted defense couldn't find an answer for Chambliss, a former Division II transfer who played like he had a point to prove to every scout in the building.
Why the No. 10 Seed is Dangerous
The most significant trend regarding upsets in college football today is the "nothing to lose" mentality of the lower seeds in the expanded 12-team playoff. Look at Miami. They didn't even win the ACC. They entered the bracket as the No. 10 seed.
Most people figured they’d be a footnote. Instead:
- They went into College Station and stifled Texas A&M 10-3.
- They traveled to the Cotton Bowl and punched No. 2 Ohio State in the mouth, winning 24-14.
- They survived a 31-27 semifinal war against Ole Miss in the Fiesta Bowl.
Keionte Scott’s 72-yard pick-six against Ohio State’s Julian Sayin wasn't just a play; it was a statement. It showed that the "talent gap" we’ve obsessed over for decades is closing, or maybe it’s just that the portal has leveled the playing field so much that a "10th best" team is actually a top-tier roster in disguise.
The SEC’s Crisis of Identity
For years, the SEC was the boogeyman. If you weren't from the South, you weren't winning. But the 2025-2026 season saw the "Southern Wall" crumble in ways that feel permanent.
Take a look at the regular season. Vanderbilt, led by the indestructible Diego Pavia, didn't just "compete"—they became a giant-killer. People forget that Pavia has a personal vendetta against coaches who passed on him in the portal, and he played like it every Saturday.
Kentucky went into the Superdome on New Year’s night and took down LSU 80-78 in a game that felt more like a street fight than a football match. Okay, that was basketball, but the point stands: the "untouchable" aura of these big-name schools is gone. In the actual football Texas Bowl, Houston (a 1.5-point underdog) took down LSU 38-35.
The SEC finished the quarterfinal round with more questions than answers. When Indiana is out-physically-dominating Alabama at the line of scrimmage, the old tropes about "SEC speed and power" start to sound like fairy tales.
What Most People Get Wrong About These Upsets
The common refrain is that "the big schools just didn't want to be there." That’s garbage. You don't lose 38-3 in the Rose Bowl because you weren't motivated. You lose because the other team is better prepared.
The real shift? It's the "Year 2" effect of the 12-team format.
- Depth over Stars: Teams like Indiana and Miami have built rosters with "grown men"—fifth and sixth-year seniors who stayed in school and used the portal to fill specific gaps.
- The "Home Field" Myth: We saw home seeds struggle. Miami proved that a 10-seed can play "road warrior" and gain momentum from the hostility.
- Coaching Parity: Curt Cignetti at Indiana is the perfect example. He bet on himself, came to a "basketball school," and out-coached the biggest names in the business.
The Actionable Reality for Fans and Bettors
If you’re still betting on the "name on the jersey," you’re losing money. The current landscape of upsets in college football today suggests that the betting lines haven't caught up to the reality of roster parity.
Indiana was a 7.5-point favorite over Alabama. Think about that. The oddsmakers knew, but the public didn't believe it. The public still saw the Crimson A and assumed they’d win.
How to spot the next big upset:
- Look at Defensive EPA: Teams like Miami (ranked 5th in points allowed) don't care about your five-star quarterback. If they can disrupt the rhythm, the "upset" is already halfway there.
- Check the "Portal Age": Average age of starters matters more than recruiting rankings now. Experienced 23-year-olds are beating talented 19-year-olds.
- Identify "Chip on Shoulder" QBs: Players like Fernando Mendoza and Trinidad Chambliss weren't the "chosen ones." They are playing with a level of aggression that "highly touted" prospects often lack.
The 2026 National Championship on January 19th at Hard Rock Stadium is the culmination of this madness. It’s No. 1 Indiana vs. No. 10 Miami. It’s a matchup that would have been a "Group of Five" bowl game ten years ago. Now, it’s the biggest game in the world.
Whether you love it or hate it, the era of the predictable playoff is dead. The upsets are the feature, not the bug.
To stay ahead of the curve, stop looking at history books and start looking at the current trenches. The teams that can run the football and limit explosive plays—regardless of their seed—are the ones holding the trophies. Keep an eye on the injury reports for Indiana’s Elijah Sarratt and Miami’s Mark Fletcher Jr. heading into the final. Those small details are what separate a "shocking" upset from a "calculated" victory.