Ever looked at a brown truck and wondered if you should own a piece of it? Right now, the ups stock price today is sitting at $106.91. That's a bit of a slide—about 1.54% down from where it closed on Friday. Honestly, the market's been a bit moody lately. People are staring at their screens, trying to figure out if United Parcel Service is a bargain or a falling knife.
It's a weird time.
One minute, investors are cheering a successful Tesla Semi pilot program that could slash fuel costs. The next, they’re sweating over the fact that Amazon—once UPS's best friend—is basically becoming its biggest rival.
What's actually happening with the numbers?
If you’re looking at the data, the 52-week range is pretty wild. We've seen a high of $136.99 and a low of $82.00. Being at $106.91 puts us somewhere in the middle, but it's definitely feeling the gravity.
The P/E ratio is hovering around 16.5x. To put that in perspective, that’s cheaper than some of its peers, but the market isn't giving away free lunches. There’s a reason it’s priced here. The company has been missing revenue estimates for a while now. Ten quarters, to be exact. That kind of track record makes Wall Street very, very nervous.
Still, BofA Securities recently bumped their rating from "Underperform" up to "Neutral." They're calling last year an "annus horribilis"—which is just a fancy way of saying it was a total disaster of a year. They think the worst might be over.
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The Dividend: The only reason some people are staying
Let's talk about the 6.13% dividend yield. That is massive.
For a lot of folks, that yield is the "safety net." You get paid $1.64 per share every quarter just for holding on. The next ex-dividend date is coming up fast on February 18, 2026, with the payout expected on March 6.
But there's a catch.
The payout ratio is currently north of 98%. Basically, UPS is handing out nearly every dollar it earns to shareholders. Some analysts, like the ones over at Simply Wall St, point out that this doesn't leave much cash in the piggy bank to actually grow the business. It’s a bit like a guy spending his whole paycheck on rent and having nothing left for groceries.
The Amazon sized elephant in the room
You can't talk about UPS without talking about Jeff Bezos's empire.
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Amazon has been cutting back its volume with UPS big time. We're looking at a potential 25% to 30% reduction in packages coming from the retail giant. When your biggest customer starts building their own delivery fleet, you've got a problem.
UPS is trying to pivot. They’re chasing "complex healthcare logistics" and small-to-medium businesses (SMBs). They even dropped $1.6 billion to buy Andlauer Healthcare Group late last year. It’s a smart move. Healthcare packages don’t care about economic downturns as much as a new pair of sneakers does.
ups stock price today: Is the "Fair Value" actually higher?
Analysts are all over the map.
Some models suggest the "intrinsic value" is closer to $128.12. If that's true, the stock is technically undervalued by about 15%. But models are just math; they don't account for a surprise recession or another labor dispute.
- The Bulls say: Automation and AI are going to trim the fat. The Tesla Semi pilot is just the beginning of a massive efficiency boost.
- The Bears say: Labor costs are too high after that Teamsters contract, and global shipping volumes are softening.
Upcoming catalysts to watch
If you're holding or thinking about buying, circle January 27, 2026 on your calendar.
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That’s when CEO Carol Tomé and CFO Brian Dykes will drop the 2025 fourth-quarter results. It’s going to be a "show me" moment. Investors want to see if the "Better, Not Bigger" strategy is actually working or if it's just a catchy slogan.
The air freight market is also shifting. UPS expects global air freight demand to grow about 2.7% this year, but most of that action is in Asia. The US-to-Europe lanes are looking a bit sluggish.
Practical moves for your portfolio
If you're looking at the ups stock price today and feeling itchy, here are a few things to actually do:
- Check the Ex-Dividend Date: If you want that $1.64 per share, you need to own the stock before February 18. If you buy it on the 19th, you’re waiting until June for a check.
- Watch the 10-Year Treasury: High-yield stocks like UPS often move in the opposite direction of bond yields. If interest rates stay high, that 6% dividend looks less impressive.
- Read the Q4 Transcript: Don't just look at the EPS (Earnings Per Share) number. Read what they say about "Average Daily Volume." If that's still shrinking, the price might have more room to fall.
- Set a Limit Order: Given the volatility, don't just "market buy." If you think $100 is the real floor, set an order there and let the market come to you.
The reality is that UPS is a legacy giant trying to learn new tricks in a world that’s moving toward automation and localized shipping. It’s not a "get rich quick" play. It’s a "collect my dividend and hope management doesn't mess up the turnaround" play. Keep an eye on those healthcare logistics numbers—that's where the real profit margin is hiding.