The pirate ship in Tampa is hitting some seriously choppy water right now. If you've been following the team through the 2025 season, you know it was a rollercoaster that eventually flew off the tracks. After a hot 6-2 start that had everyone whispering about Super Bowl sleeper status, the wheels didn't just wobble—they fell off. Seven losses in nine games. That's how you miss the playoffs.
The Todd Bowles Situation: He’s Staying, But Everything Else is Changing
Honestly, a lot of people thought Todd Bowles might be packing his bags. Instead, the Glazer family is giving him one more shot. It’s basically his "prove it" year in 2026.
But don't think for a second that things are staying the same at One Buc Place. Just a few days ago, on January 8, the team went through a massive "Thursday Purge." Bowles fired five assistant coaches in one afternoon. We're talking about Offensive Coordinator Josh Grizzard and Special Teams Coordinator Thomas McGaughey being shown the door. Even the legendary Tom Moore, who has been coaching for over 60 years, is finally calling it a career.
It’s a clean slate. Bowles is basically admitting that while he’s the head chef, the recipe was broken. By moving on from Grizzard and QBs coach Thaddeus Lewis, the team is signaling a total reboot for Baker Mayfield and this offense.
The Baker Mayfield Contract Reality
Let’s talk about Baker. He’s been the heartbeat of this team, but the "update on Tampa Bay Buccaneers" regarding his future is a bit complicated.
Baker is entering the final year of his deal in 2026. Last summer, the front office reworked his contract to guarantee him $30 million for the upcoming season. It was a move to show they believe in him, sure, but it also creates a massive cap hit. We’re looking at a $51.9 million charge against the cap.
That is a huge number for a quarterback who, despite his grit, led an offense that finished 21st in total yards this past season. He’s 31 now. He’s not the young gunslinger anymore; he’s the veteran who needs to prove he can carry a team through a December collapse. If he doesn't, the Bucs are looking at a $30 million dead cap hit if they try to move on in 2027.
Injuries and the Roster Crunch
You can’t talk about the Bucs’ failure to make the postseason without mentioning the training room. It looked like a M.A.S.H. unit by Week 18.
Calijah Kancey spent 15 weeks on IR with a pectoral injury. Tristan Wirfs was playing on a bum toe. Jamel Dean had a shoulder that just wouldn't quit on him. These aren't just depth guys; these are the pillars. The good news? Kancey was finally activated for the season finale against Carolina. Having him healthy for the 2026 offseason program is massive for a defense that ranked 27th against the pass.
Speaking of the defense, there's a real chance Bowles hires a defensive coordinator to actually call the plays this year. For years, he’s done it himself. But with his job on the line, he might finally step back into a "CEO" role.
Key Names to Watch This Offseason:
- J.T. Gray: The special teams ace was just signed to the active roster. With McGaughey out, expect a total overhaul of the return and coverage units.
- Emeka Egbuka: The young wideout is carrying a $4.1 million cap hit in 2026. With Mike Evans getting older (he'll be 33 next season), Egbuka has to become a primary target.
- Zyon McCollum: He ended the year on IR with a hip injury. The team needs him to be the CB1 they thought he was before the season fell apart.
The Salary Cap Tightrope
Jason Licht, the GM, has about $24 million in cap space to work with right now. That sounds like a lot until you realize they have 20+ pending free agents and a draft class to sign.
They are middle-of-the-pack—16th in the league for cap space. They aren't in "cap hell," but they aren't exactly "flush with cash" either. To make any big moves in free agency, Licht is going to have to restructure the big contracts like Vita Vea’s or Antoine Winfield Jr.’s.
What the 2026 Outlook Actually Looks Like
The NFC South is weird. The Panthers won the division last year with a tiebreaker, even though they aren't exactly a powerhouse. The Falcons have Kirk Cousins, but they’ve been inconsistent.
Tampa Bay is in this strange "win now" mode while also firing half the building. It’s a gamble. They are betting that the problem wasn't the talent, but the people teaching it. If Bowles hits on the new OC—maybe someone like Michael Clay or Craig Aukerman for special teams—the Bucs could easily be back at 10-7.
But if the offense continues to rank in the bottom half of the league? If the pass rush stays as quiet as it was in 2025? Then we aren't just looking at a coaching change next January; we're looking at a total franchise teardown.
Actionable Next Steps for Fans:
- Track the OC Interviews: Keep a close eye on who Bowles meets with over the next two weeks. If they go with a "wide zone" scheme guy, it tells you they want to help Baker with a stronger play-action game.
- Monitor the Senior Bowl: The Bucs have a late first-round pick. Watch for interior defensive linemen; they desperately need someone to take the pressure off Vita Vea.
- Check the Injury Status of Benjamin Morrison: The rookie corner was a bright spot before the hamstring issues. His recovery timeline will dictate how aggressive the team is in the free-agent secondary market.
- Watch the Salary Cap Moves: If the Bucs start converting base salaries to bonuses in February, it’s a sign they are planning to be aggressive when the legal tampering period opens in March.
article>