You’ve probably never heard of antimony. Most people haven't. But if you’re looking at United States Antimony Corporation stock (UAMY), you're looking at one of the weirdest, most strategically vital corners of the American market.
Honestly, the stock has been a roller coaster. Just look at the last few months. In early 2026, we’ve seen shares bouncing around the $8.29 mark, which is a massive jump from where it sat a year ago. We're talking about a company that was basically a "penny stock" for years, suddenly thrust into the middle of a global trade war and a domestic defense scramble.
What’s Actually Driving the Price?
It’s not just hype. Well, it's some hype, but there’s real stuff happening on the ground. China basically owns the global antimony market—or they did. In late 2024 and through 2025, Beijing started tightening the screws on exports. Since antimony is used in everything from flame retardants to military munitions and high-tech batteries, the U.S. government started sweating.
That’s where UAMY comes in. They operate the only two antimony smelters in North America. One is in Thompson Falls, Montana, and the other is in Mexico.
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- The Defense Angle: In September 2025, they landed a massive sole-source contract with the Defense Logistics Agency (DLA) worth up to $245 million. That’s huge for a company of this size.
- Expansion: They aren't just sitting on their hands. They’ve been expanding the Thompson Falls facility, aiming for a sixfold increase in capacity. The new furnaces were slated to go live in January 2026.
- Direct Mining: For a long time, they just processed other people's ore. Now, they’re digging their own again at Stibnite Hill in Montana and have plans for Alaska later this year.
The Financial Reality Check
Don't let the "Strong Buy" ratings from some analysts blind you. The numbers are still kinda messy. In their Q3 2025 report, they posted a negative EPS of -$0.04. Analysts were expecting a profit. Revenue came in at $8.7 million, which was a big miss compared to the $12.8 million people were hoping for.
Why the miss? Well, they’ve been spending like crazy. Gary Evans, the CEO who took over in late 2024, is aggressive. He’s been raising tens of millions of dollars through "at-the-market" offerings and direct sales to institutions. If you're a shareholder, that means dilution. Your slice of the pie gets smaller every time they issue new shares to fund these expansions.
But the guidance is what’s keeping the lights on for investors. They’re projecting $125 million in revenue for FY2026. That is a massive leap from the $40-ish million they did in 2025.
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Why the Zeolite Division Matters
Everyone talks about antimony, but don't sleep on Bear River Zeolite (BRZ). It's their wholly-owned subsidiary, and they just promoted Melissa Pagen to President there. Zeolite is a mineral used for water filtration, soil amendment, and even nuclear waste cleanup.
Management keeps saying they have 400 years of zeolite reserves. Pagen was instrumental in securing a $107 million supply agreement with a big industrial fabric maker. While antimony is the "sexy" trade because of the China tension, zeolite is the steady, long-term cash flow play that might actually keep the company solvent if metal prices dip.
Risks Nobody Likes to Talk About
It’s not all sunshine and rocket ships. Investing in United States Antimony Corporation stock is basically a bet on geopolitics.
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- China’s Flip-Flopping: In November 2025, China temporarily suspended its export ban to the U.S. until late 2026. This caused international prices to soften a bit. If China decides to flood the market with cheap antimony again, UAMY’s margins on their own mined ore could get squeezed.
- Permitting Nightmares: They have big plans for Alaska and Ontario. But anyone who knows mining knows that "plans" and "permits" are two different things. Regulatory pushback can stall a project for years.
- Execution: Can a small-cap company actually scale sixfold without breaking? That’s the $1.16 billion market cap question.
The Bottom Line for 2026
The stock is currently trading at a price-to-sales ratio that would make a tech company blush—around 36x. For a mining and materials company, that is astronomical. The market is pricing in a "perfect" 2026 where the new furnaces work, the military buys every pound they produce, and the Alaska mines open on time.
If you're looking at UAMY, you've got to decide if you believe the $9.67 fair value estimate some analysts are throwing around, or if you think the recent surge to $8+ has already sucked all the oxygen out of the room.
Actionable Steps for Investors
- Watch the Thompson Falls Output: Keep an eye on the Q1 2026 production numbers. This will tell you if the expansion is actually delivering the volume they promised.
- Monitor Antimony Prices in Rotterdam: Since UAMY's revenue is tied to global benchmarks, a drop in international prices will hit their top line immediately.
- Check for Further Dilution: Read the SEC 8-K filings. If they keep doing direct offerings to raise cash, the stock price might struggle to sustain its upward momentum despite good news.
- Diversify the "Critical Minerals" Bet: Don't put your whole portfolio into one small-cap miner. If you like the domestic supply chain theme, look at other critical mineral players to balance the risk.
The company is in a transformational phase. It’s no longer just a sleepy smelter; it’s trying to become a vertically integrated powerhouse. Whether they can pull it off without more "earnings surprises" is the gamble.