Aviation is basically a soap opera with faster engines. During a recent Q2 earnings call, United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby—a man not exactly known for holding back his opinions—dropped a bit of a bomb. He wasn't just talking about his own planes. He took a direct shot at his biggest rival, Delta Air Lines, and their upcoming plan to fly from Los Angeles (LAX) to Hong Kong (HKG).
Kirby’s take? He thinks Delta is going to lose money on it. A lot of it.
Honestly, it’s rare to see a CEO call out a specific competitor’s route like this. Usually, they stick to corporate speak about "competitive landscapes" or "market dynamics." But Kirby went there. He basically said he felt "complimented" that Delta felt the need to chase United into markets where they can’t actually make a profit. It’s a bold claim, especially since Delta is usually the gold standard for making money in the airline world.
But is Kirby just being cocky, or is there some real "economic gravity"—as he likes to call it—behind his words?
The Battle for the Pacific
The transpacific market is a beast. It’s long, it’s expensive, and it’s crowded. Delta is planning to launch this daily LAX-HKG service on June 6, 2026, using their flagship Airbus A350-900. On paper, it looks great. You’ve got the fancy Delta One suites, a brand-new Delta One Lounge at LAX with a sushi bar, and the ability to haul 20 tons of cargo.
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But here’s the problem: the competition is already fierce.
United and Cathay Pacific already own this route. United flies it twice a day. Cathay flies it three times a day. By the time Delta shows up, they’ll be the third wheel on a date that’s already pretty crowded. Kirby’s point is that adding a sixth daily flight to a market that is already well-served is a recipe for empty seats—or worse, seats sold at a discount just to fill them.
United has been aggressive in the Pacific. They increased their capacity by 6% recently and saw a 9% jump in unit revenue. That’s a massive win. Delta, on the flip side, bumped their Pacific capacity by 11% but saw their unit revenue drop by 1%. You don't need a math degree to see why Kirby thinks he has the upper hand here.
Why LAX is a Tough Nut to Crack
You might wonder why Delta is choosing LAX instead of Seattle (SEA), which is their main gateway to Asia. LAX is a "fragmented" hub. No single airline really dominates it. While Delta is the largest global carrier there, they don't have the same "captive" audience they have in a place like Atlanta or Minneapolis.
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- The Cathay Factor: Cathay Pacific is legendary for its service. Business travelers often choose them over any U.S. carrier.
- The Star Alliance Lead: United has a massive advantage with its Star Alliance partners, allowing them to funnel passengers from all over the U.S. into that HKG flight.
- Historical Failures: Delta has tried and failed at Hong Kong before. They cut their Seattle-Hong Kong route in 2018 because it just wasn't making enough.
Is it Really About the Ticket Price?
There's a theory in the industry that airlines aren't just flying people anymore—they're flying credit cards. Gary Leff from View from the Wing has often pointed out that Delta sometimes schedules routes specifically because they help sell American Express cards.
If a high-roller in L.A. wants to fly to Hong Kong, they want a nonstop flight. If Delta doesn't offer it, that person might switch their loyalty (and their credit card spend) to United or American. So, even if the flight itself loses money on fuel and labor, it might "make" money by keeping a big spender in the Delta ecosystem.
Kirby doesn't seem to buy that logic as a long-term strategy. He believes that "economic gravity" eventually wins. If a route loses money month after month, you eventually have to cut it. He’s betting that Delta is just "dumping capacity" to look big, but will eventually have to retreat when the bean counters see the red ink.
The Cargo Wildcard
One thing that might save Delta is the cargo. The A350-900 is a freight powerhouse. Hong Kong is a global hub for electronics and e-commerce. Delta is banking on carrying 20 tons of "high-value perishables" and gadgets under the floorboards. Sometimes, the stuff in the belly of the plane pays for the fuel, and the passengers are just a bonus.
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But United has big planes and big cargo contracts, too. It’s not like Delta is entering an empty market.
What This Means for You
If you're a traveler, this CEO spat is actually great news. When two giants start fighting over a route, the customer usually wins in the short term.
- Fare Wars: Expect some "introductory pricing" from Delta in early 2026. United will likely match them to protect their turf.
- Better Amenities: Delta is leaning hard into the "premium" experience. That new Delta One Lounge at LAX is a direct response to United's Polaris Lounge.
- More Choice: Having three airlines fly nonstop to Hong Kong from LAX gives you way more flexibility with your schedule.
Actionable Insights for Your Next Trip
If you're looking to book this route or any transpacific flight, don't just look at the price tag. The competition between United and Delta is going to make things interesting over the next 18 months.
- Watch the Launch Window: Delta’s first flight is June 6, 2026. Keep an eye out for award seat availability. Often, when an airline launches a "prestige" route like this, they open up more seats for miles to drum up hype.
- Check the Aircraft: Delta is using the A350, which is a quieter, more humid (and thus more comfortable) plane than older models. United uses the 787 Dreamliner, which offers similar benefits. Avoid older 777s if you can.
- Lounge Access is Changing: If you're flying business class, the new Delta One Lounge at LAX is going to be a major selling point. If you’re a United flyer, the Polaris Lounge at LAX is already excellent, but expect them to step up their game to keep you from defecting.
- Be Skeptical of "Direct" vs. "Nonstop": Always double-check that you're booking the nonstop. With Delta's partner Korean Air, they might try to route you through Seoul (ICN). That’s a great airport, but it’s not a nonstop.
Scott Kirby might be right that Delta will lose money on the LAX-HKG route. He might also just be trying to rattle his rival. Either way, the "airline wars" of 2026 are shaping up to be a win for anyone sitting in the cabin, regardless of who is winning in the boardroom.