United Airlines is having a weirdly good year. Or maybe just a weird one. If you’ve looked at the United Airlines share price lately—trading around $113.49 as of mid-January 2026—you’ve seen a stock that finally seems to have its wings under it. But it wasn't a straight climb. In fact, just a few days ago, we saw a dip down to $110.75 amidst some broader market jitters and institutional selling.
Honestly, the airline sector is a headache for most retail investors. You have fuel prices, labor contracts, and the occasional global "event" that grounds everything. Yet, United (UAL) is currently sitting near its 52-week high of $119.21. That’s a massive jump from its 52-week low of $52.00.
The $135 Question: Is the Momentum Real?
Wall Street seems to think so. Most of the big-name analysts, from JPMorgan to Citigroup, have been busy hiking their price targets. We're talking about numbers in the $135 to $156 range. UBS just reiterated a "Buy" with a $145 target. Why the optimism?
It basically boils down to the "United Next" plan.
For the last couple of years, CEO Scott Kirby has been betting the farm on a massive fleet upgrade. They aren't just buying planes; they’re buying premium experiences. You've probably seen the news about Starlink internet being installed or those new seatback screens. It sounds like fluff, but the numbers show it’s working. Premium cabin revenue was up 6% in the last reported quarter. People are actually willing to pay for more than just a seat in a metal tube.
Earnings Season Jitters
The next big date is January 20, 2026. That’s when the Q4 2025 results drop.
Expectations are a bit of a mixed bag. The Zacks Consensus Estimate is sitting around $3.05 per share, which is actually a slight decline from last year. But United has this habit of beating estimates—they've done it for four quarters straight with an average "surprise" of nearly 9%.
What’s interesting is that while the earnings might look slightly lower year-over-year, the revenue is expected to hit $15.44 billion. That would be a record for a single quarter.
What Most People Get Wrong About UAL
Most casual observers focus on fuel. "Oh, oil is up, sell the airlines."
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While fuel matters—United paid an average of $2.43 per gallon last quarter—it’s not the whole story anymore. United doesn't hedge fuel as aggressively as some peers. This makes the United Airlines share price a bit more volatile when energy markets swing, but it also allows them to capture more profit when prices drop.
The real engine under the hood is MileagePlus.
The loyalty program grew 9% recently. In the airline world, loyalty programs are basically banks that happen to own planes. They provide a massive cushion of cash flow that stays steady even when travel demand dips.
The Debt Problem (Or Lack Thereof)
United has been aggressively paying down the debt they took on during the pandemic. Fitch Ratings actually upgraded their credit rating to BB+ recently. They even fully repaid $1.52 billion in loyalty program debt.
When an airline starts cleaning up its balance sheet like this, it usually signals that they’re getting ready for something else. Some investors are whispering about dividends or more share buybacks, though right now, the dividend sits at a big fat zero. They did, however, buy back over $600 million in shares through late 2025.
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The 2026 Outlook: What’s Next?
If you're holding UAL, you aren't really looking at the 2025 numbers anymore. Those are baked in. The market is now staring at 2026 guidance.
Analysts at TD Cowen actually named United their "Best Idea for 2026." They’re looking at an earnings-per-share (EPS) forecast of roughly $15.00 for the full year. Compare that to the $13.00 expected for 2025.
That’s a 15% growth rate for a company that many thought was "stagnant" a few years ago.
Of course, it’s not all blue skies. There are real risks:
- Geopolitical Unrest: Any major conflict can spike fuel or shut down international routes (which are United's bread and butter).
- Labor Costs: New union contracts are expensive. United saw a 1-point reduction in labor expense recently purely due to the timing of contracts, but those costs eventually hit the books.
- Operational Snafus: Remember that Boeing 777 engine issue on Flight 803? Those kinds of headlines can spook the market in a heartbeat.
How to Trade the Current Price Action
The stock is currently trading at a P/E ratio of about 11.4. In plain English, that’s pretty cheap compared to the broader S&P 500, especially for a company growing earnings in the double digits.
Many traders look at the RSI (Relative Strength Index). Lately, UAL has been hovering near "overbought" territory, which explains why we saw that dip to $110. It was basically a pressure release valve.
If the stock pulls back toward the 50-day moving average (currently around $105), that’s usually where the "buy the dip" crowd jumps in. But if they knock the Q4 earnings out of the park and give a bullish forecast for the summer 2026 season—which already includes new routes to places like Split, Croatia and Bari, Italy—we could see it break through that $120 resistance level.
Actionable Next Steps:
- Watch the January 21 Conference Call: Don't just look at the EPS number. Listen to what they say about "CASM-ex" (cost per available seat mile, excluding fuel). If that number is falling, the airline is becoming more efficient.
- Monitor the $110 Support Level: If the United Airlines share price stays above $110 despite market volatility, it shows strong institutional support.
- Check the 2026 Capacity Guidance: United plans to expand its Atlantic service to 46 cities. If they manage to fill those seats without slashing prices, the "United Next" story is still in its early chapters.