Honestly, if you just looked at the scorelines from the last year or two, you’d think this matchup was a total mismatch. Borussia Dortmund has been laying some absolute beatings on Union recently. We’re talking 3-0, 6-0, the kind of numbers that make you want to look away if you’re wearing iron-on red and white.
But football in the Bundesliga isn't played on a spreadsheet.
When BVB rolls into the Stadion An der Alten Försterei on January 24, 2026, those past blowouts won't matter much. Union Berlin is currently sitting 9th in the table, hovering around that "dangerous but inconsistent" zone. Meanwhile, Dortmund is breathing down Bayern Munich’s neck in 2nd place. It’s the classic battle of the establishment vs. the "Kult" club, and if you've ever spent a Saturday in Köpenick, you know the atmosphere makes things weird.
The Schlotterbeck Factor and the Tactical Mess
It’s kinda funny—or tragic, depending on your vibe—that Nico Schlotterbeck is basically the wall Union used to have, now wearing the yellow shirt. He’s been putting up monster numbers lately. Against Union, he’s not just defending; he’s essentially a playmaker from the back. In their last outing, he was hitting long-range diagonals that basically bypassed Union’s entire midfield.
Union's current setup is a bit of a puzzle. They're still leaning on that gritty, "take a lot of shots and hope for the best" style. They rank 8th in the league for total shots, which sounds great until you realize they rank 11th for actual goals. They create, but they don't always finish. It’s frustrating to watch.
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What's Changed for BVB?
Under Niko Kovač (yep, he's the one steering the ship now), Dortmund has found a weirdly effective stability. They’re playing this high-possession game that feels more controlled than the chaotic "heavy metal" football of the past.
- Serhou Guirassy is still the focal point. He’s got 6 goals this season and remains a nightmare in the box.
- Jobe Bellingham has been the surprise. He’s not just a "name"; he’s actually anchoring the midfield alongside Sabitzer.
- Julian Ryerson—another ex-Union man—is basically a yellow-and-black machine on the wing.
Dortmund is averaging about 2.1 goals per game, while Union is struggling to keep a clean sheet, managing it only 27% of the time this season. That’s a massive gap.
The "Alten Försterei" Curse
You can't talk about Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund without talking about the stadium.
The Alten Försterei is small. It’s loud. It’s mostly standing. For a team like Dortmund, used to the massive 80,000-seat Signal Iduna Park, the tightness of Union’s home ground is a trap. Union is significantly better at home, averaging 1.6 goals compared to a measly 1.0 on the road.
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I remember talking to a fan who traveled for the October 2024 game where Union actually pulled off a 2-1 upset. He said the noise was so physical you could feel it in your teeth. That’s the "extra man" people talk about. If Union is going to get anything out of this January clash, they need to turn the match into a scrap. They won’t out-play Dortmund technically. They have to out-work them.
The Problem with the Current Rankings
Look at the table. Dortmund has 36 points; Union has 23.
On paper, this is a "should-win" for BVB. But Union has this annoying habit of beating teams they shouldn't. They recently took down RB Leipzig 3-1. When they’re on, their counter-attack is lethal. Ilyas Ansah and Andrej Ilic are the guys to watch there. If Dortmund’s full-backs, like Yan Couto, get too adventurous, Union will exploit those gaps in a heartbeat.
Union’s biggest weakness right now is defending against "skillful players." That’s a problem when you’re facing Julian Brandt and Karim Adeyemi. Brandt has been picking locks all season, and if he finds space between Union’s lines, it’s game over.
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Real-World Odds and Vibes
The bookies aren't stupid. They’ve got Dortmund as the favorites, but the "Draw" is looking suspiciously tempting to a lot of people. Union hasn't drawn many games against BVB historically—it’s usually a win or a loss—but with the way they’ve been grinding out results like that 2-2 against Mainz, a stalemate isn't out of the question.
How to Actually Watch This
If you're trying to catch this one, it’s a Saturday afternoon kickoff.
- Check the Lineups: Look for whether Emre Can starts. If he does, BVB is looking for safety. If it’s Jobe Bellingham and Sabitzer, they’re going for the throat.
- Watch the First 15: Dortmund has scored first in 8 of their last 9 games. If they score early at the Försterei, Union usually crumbles. If Union holds out past the 20-minute mark, the crowd gets involved and things get spicy.
- The Set Piece Battle: Union is "Very Strong" at attacking set pieces. Dortmund is "Strong" at defending them. This is where the game will be won or lost in the mud.
Actionable Insights for Fans
If you're betting or just trying to look smart in the group chat, keep these three things in mind:
- The "Ex-Player" Factor: Both Schlotterbeck and Ryerson are former Union stars. They know the stadium, they know the weaknesses, and they rarely have "bad" games against their old club.
- Second-Half Surges: Union scores most of their goals in the second half. If they’re down 1-0 at halftime, don't count them out.
- The Possession Trap: BVB will likely have 65% possession. Union is perfectly happy with 35%. Don't mistake Dortmund "having the ball" for Dortmund "winning the game."
Keep an eye on the injury report for Karim Adeyemi. His pace is the specific tool that breaks Union’s defensive structure. Without him, BVB can become a bit predictable, which plays right into Union’s hands.