Football isn't played on paper. If it were, every Union Berlin vs Bayern match would be a foregone conclusion. You’d look at the budgets, the trophy cabinets, and the global superstars, and you’d just hand the three points to the Bavarians before the first whistle even blew. But the Bundesliga doesn't work like that, especially not at the Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
Bayern Munich arrived in the capital this past November looking to match history. They had won nine out of their first ten games under Vincent Kompany, chasing the ghost of Pep Guardiola’s 2015 record. They didn't get it. Instead, they got a face full of Steffen Baumgart’s man-marking masterclass.
The match ended in a 2-2 draw, but that scoreline barely tells the story. Danilho Doekhi—a defender who seems to treat Bayern's world-class attackers like personal projects—scored twice. One was a header, the other a volley. It took a 92nd-minute header from Harry Kane just to save a point for the league leaders. Honestly, it's becoming a pattern.
The Tactical Nightmare for Vincent Kompany
Kompany has turned Bayern into a possession monster again. They usually keep about 65% of the ball. In most games, they just suffocate the opposition until the cracks appear. But Baumgart’s Union Berlin doesn't crack. They just get more aggressive.
Instead of sitting in a deep block and hoping for the best, Union played what I’d call a "midfield press on steroids." They mirrored Bayern’s build-up. When Joshua Kimmich dropped deep to start the play, Aljoscha Kemlein was right there in his face. It was uncomfortable. It was physical. Sometimes it was probably too physical, but it broke the rhythm.
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Bayern struggled to find their flow. Michael Olise was kept quiet for long stretches by Tom Rothe. Luis Díaz, who has been a revelation for Bayern, managed to find a moment of brilliance to equalize once, but the supply lines were constantly being cut. It wasn't until the very end, when Tom Bischof sent in a desperate cross, that Kane could do what Kane does.
Why the "Alte Försterei" Matters
You can't talk about this fixture without mentioning the stadium. It’s tiny. It’s loud. The fans are practically on top of the pitch. For a team like Bayern, used to the expansive luxury of the Allianz Arena, the Alte Försterei feels like a trap.
In their last several visits, Bayern has looked mortal here:
- November 2025: 2-2 draw (Kane late equalizer)
- March 2025: 1-1 draw
- September 2022: 1-1 draw
The stats are pretty wild. Union Berlin has a record of 0 wins, 5 draws, and 9 losses against Bayern overall. That sounds bad until you realize how many of those draws happened in Berlin. They know how to make life miserable for the record champions.
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The DFB-Pokal Drama
If the league draw was a tactical chess match, the DFB-Pokal round of 16 match in December 2025 was pure chaos. Five goals. All of them from set pieces. Two own goals and two penalties.
Union actually led that game through Leopold Querfeld, who converted two penalties. Imagine Manuel Neuer, with 782 professional appearances, conceding two penalties to the same guy in one game. It had never happened to him before. But Union’s Achilles' heel that night was their own defense. Ilyas Ansah and Diogo Leite both managed to put the ball in their own net.
Bayern eventually escaped with a 3-2 win, but it wasn't because they played them off the park. They survived. That’s the recurring theme of Union Berlin vs Bayern lately. Bayern doesn't win; they survive.
The Key Players to Watch
When these two meet again, watch the individual battles.
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- Danilho Doekhi vs. Harry Kane: Doekhi has scored more against Bayern than some strikers. He’s a set-piece nightmare.
- Michael Olise vs. Tom Rothe: Olise is currently one of the highest-rated players in Europe, but Rothe’s physicality seems to nullify his flair.
- Joshua Kimmich’s Movement: Everything for Bayern goes through Kimmich. If Union can man-mark him out of the game again, Kompany’s system stalls.
What This Means for the Bundesliga Title Race
Right now, Bayern is sitting pretty at the top of the table with 44 points from 16 games. They’ve only drawn twice all season—and one of those was against Union. Union Berlin is holding steady in 9th, but they’ve proven they can go toe-to-toe with anyone.
The most recent headlines even suggest Union is becoming a genuine "giant killer" again. They recently beat Bayern 2-1 in a January matchup, further tightening the gap at the top. This isn't just a fluke anymore. It’s a culture.
Actionable Insights for Fans and Analysts
If you're betting on or analyzing the next Union Berlin vs Bayern clash, keep these factors in mind:
- Look at the Venue: Bayern’s win rate drops significantly in Berlin. A "Double Chance" (Union or Draw) is often more viable than the odds suggest.
- Set Piece Dominance: Both teams are currently obsessed with set-piece goals. In their last two meetings, over 70% of goals came from corners or penalties.
- The Fatigue Factor: Union covers roughly 5km more per game than Bayern when they play head-to-head. They aim to outrun the talent gap.
Monitor the injury reports for Rani Khedira and András Schäfer. When those two are fit in the midfield, Union’s ability to disrupt Bayern’s passing lanes doubles. Bayern's depth is superior, but on a cold night in Köpenick, depth matters less than grit.
Keep an eye on the Matchday 27 rematch scheduled for March 2026. It could be the game that either seals the title for Bayern or blows the race wide open for Borussia Dortmund and RB Leipzig.