The sky over the Ilsky oil refinery didn't light up with New Year’s fireworks this year. Instead, it was a slow-motion orange bloom of burning crude.
On January 1, 2026, while most of the world was nursing a hangover, Ukrainian drones were busy. They weren't just hitting a single target; they were systematically dismantling the logistical spine of the Russian military. From the Krasnodar Krai to the snowy industrial zones of Tatarstan, the war has shifted. It’s no longer just a frontline slog in the Donbas.
Honestly, the map of the conflict looks like someone took a handful of red ink and threw it at a map of Western Russia.
The Shift to "Economic Attrition"
For a long time, the narrative was about "holding the line." You’ve heard it a million times. But in early 2026, the strategy changed to something more aggressive and, frankly, more desperate. Ukrainian strikes on russia are now focused on one thing: making the war too expensive to continue.
Take the Zhutovska oil depot in the Volgograd region. Hit on January 10. The Kremlin-installed governor, Andrey Bocharov, called it "falling drone debris." Sure. But the satellite imagery showed a facility that looked like a charcoal grill.
This isn't just about blowing things up for the sake of it. These depots supply the very fuel that keeps Russian T-90 tanks moving in the south. When the fuel stops, the tanks become very expensive, very heavy paperweights.
The Long-Range Reality Check
People keep asking if Ukraine has the "permission" to strike deep.
The reality is that while the West debates, Ukraine builds. The Unmanned Systems Forces, led by Robert "Magyar" Brovdi, have basically turned drone warfare into a high-tech startup. They’ve developed the "Molniya" drones, which are being pumped out of domestic factories at a rate that would make a Silicon Valley CEO sweat.
- Targets in early January included:
- The Almetyevsk oil facility (deep in Tatarstan).
- Radar stations in Hvardiiske.
- The Nevinnomyssk Azot plant (which makes the acid needed for artillery shells).
That last one is crucial. If you can’t make nitric acid, you can’t make shells. If you can’t make shells, your "meat wave" infantry tactics stop working. It’s a domino effect that most casual observers miss because they're looking at the frontlines on a map, not the supply chain.
Why the "Oreshnik" Matters
Russia isn't just taking these hits quietly. On January 9, 2026, they used the "Oreshnik" ballistic missile for the second time, targeting the Lviv region. This is an intermediate-range monster.
It’s a psychological weapon as much as a physical one. By hitting so close to the Polish border—the NATO border—Moscow is trying to say, "We can reach you, too."
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But there’s a nuance here that gets buried. The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed the Oreshnik strike was a response to an alleged Ukrainian drone attack on Putin’s residence in Valdai. Whether that attack actually happened or was a "military facility near the residence," as the CIA suggests, is almost irrelevant. The point is that the Kremlin feels vulnerable.
The Winter Weaponization
The "weaponization of winter" is a term that gets tossed around a lot in 2026.
It’s a brutal, two-way street. Russia has hammered the Ukrainian grid, leaving millions in the dark in sub-zero temperatures. In response, Ukrainian strikes on russia have targeted the energy networks in occupied Zaporizhzhia and Crimea.
On January 18, 2026, drone strikes cut power to over 200,000 households in Russian-held southern Ukraine. It’s a grim mirror image of what’s happening in Kyiv.
"The war is starting to stall where it once seemed unstoppable," says a recent report from the Ukrainian Review.
That’s a fancy way of saying nobody is winning the "energy war" yet, but everyone is losing their heat.
The British Factor
While the U.S. remains cautious, the UK has stepped up. On January 11, 2026, the Ministry of Defence announced the "Nightfall" missile project. These are tactical ballistic missiles with a 500-kilometer range.
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The goal? Hit Russian airfields and depots before they can even get a plane in the air.
It’s a massive upgrade from the Storm Shadows of 2024. These new missiles can be launched from small, mobile vehicles that "shoot and scoot" in under five minutes. It makes the Russian air defense job a nightmare.
What This Means for the Rest of 2026
So, what’s the bottom line?
The conflict has evolved into a high-stakes game of asymmetric warfare. Ukraine is the "weaker" actor on paper, but they are using "opposite-approach" tactics—using cheap drones to kill expensive refineries.
If you’re looking for a quick end to this, you’re probably going to be disappointed. Experts like Ruth Deyermond from King’s College London are already saying neither side has the juice for a "conclusive victory" this year.
Actionable Insights for the Months Ahead:
- Watch the Refineries: The price of petrol inside Russia is a better indicator of the war's progress than the village-to-village fighting in Donetsk. If prices keep rising (they were up 10% by late 2025), the pressure on the Kremlin increases.
- The "Oreshnik" Frequency: If Russia starts using these high-end ballistic missiles for tactical targets rather than just "show of force" strikes, it means they are running low on standard cruise missiles.
- UK and European Autonomy: Keep an eye on the delivery of the British "Nightfall" missiles. This represents a significant break from U.S. policy and could lead to a more aggressive European stance.
- The "Valdai" Factor: Any strike near Putin’s personal residences will trigger a massive, disproportionate response. These are the red lines that actually matter to the Russian leadership.
The conflict isn't just about geography anymore. It’s about infrastructure, logistics, and the sheer will to keep the lights on—or to turn the other guy’s off.