Honestly, if you’re looking for a simple "it ends on this date" answer, you aren’t going to find it. Not from anyone who actually knows what they’re talking about. We’ve entered 2026 now, and the map hasn’t shifted much lately. It’s frustrating. People were banking on 2025 being the "Year of Decision," but here we are.
The reality on the ground is messy. You've got diplomats in Geneva and D.C. talking about 28-point plans, while soldiers in the Donbas are just trying to survive another night of drone swarms. It’s a weird disconnect. Experts like Ruth Deyermond from King’s College London are pointing out something pretty grim: the conditions for a final resolution just aren't there yet. Neither side is ready to collapse, and neither side can land a knockout blow.
The Trump Factor and the "20-Point Plan"
Ever since Donald Trump returned to the White House, the diplomatic temperature has spiked. There’s been a massive push for a ceasefire. You might have heard about the 20-point peace plan (it started as 28 points) floating around late last year. It basically suggests a cap on Ukraine’s military and a constitutional promise not to join NATO.
Ukraine and its European allies are, understandably, kinda freaked out by this. They see it as a "strategic trap." President Zelenskyy mentioned in late December that maybe 90% of a deal is agreed upon, but that last 10%? That’s the big one. It’s the territory. Russia wants to keep what they’ve grabbed—Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk—and Ukraine isn't exactly jumping to sign away their land forever.
Can Russia Actually Keep This Up?
The Kremlin acts like they have all the time in the world. Dmitry Peskov keeps talking about "strategic advantages," but look at the math.
- The Tank Problem: CSIS reports show Russia has lost over 3,000 tanks. That’s more than their entire pre-war active stock. They’re digging deep into Soviet-era graveyards now.
- The Money Hole: Experts at the Kyiv School of Economics (KSE) are sounding alarms. They think if this drags deep into 2026, Ukraine faces an $18 billion funding gap.
- The Human Cost: We're looking at an estimated 1.1 million casualties combined. That's a staggering, horrific number.
Andras Toth-Czifra, a fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, says the pressure on Russia’s domestic war machine will be "bigger in 2026 than at any time over the past four years." But Putin seems convinced he can just outlast the West's patience. He’s betting that we’ll get bored or broke before he does.
Why 2025 Didn't Bring the "End"
Many ukraine war end predictions 2025 experts made last year focused on "exhaustion." The idea was that by late 2025, both sides would be too tired to move. That sort of happened, but instead of peace, we got a "waning."
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The war basically moved from high-intensity breakthroughs to this grueling, positional slog. Think drones, satellite reconnaissance, and small-unit actions rather than massive tank battles. It’s a "War of Attrition," which is a fancy way of saying "whoever runs out of people or bullets first loses."
The Scenarios for the Rest of 2026
So, where does that leave us? Experts are split into a few camps.
Some, like the team at GLOBSEC, think a "frozen conflict" is the most likely outcome. Imagine a ceasefire where the shooting stops but nobody signs a peace treaty. It’s like North and South Korea. Not great, but better than 500 people dying every day.
Others are worried about a "black swan" event. This is something nobody sees coming—a sudden economic crash in Moscow, or a major technological leap in drone warfare that makes traditional defense impossible.
The Atlantic Council’s Peter Dickinson argues that Putin literally cannot accept a deal that leaves Ukraine as a functional, independent state anchored to the West. To him, that’s a defeat. And for a guy like Putin, defeat is a death sentence. That’s why he keeps escalating, even when his economy is screaming.
What You Should Actually Watch For
If you want to know if the end is actually near, stop watching the daily maps and start watching these three things:
- The 2026 Defense Budgets: Russia's budget is still at record highs. Until that drops, they aren't stopping.
- Security Guarantees: On January 6, the "Coalition of the Willing" met to discuss legally binding guarantees for Ukraine. If these are strong enough, it might give Kyiv the confidence to freeze the front lines.
- Ammunition Production: Russia is sourcing from North Korea and Iran because their own factories can't keep up with the "meat-grinder" pace. If those supply lines get hit by sanctions or sabotage, the front line might finally crumble.
Basically, 2026 is going to be about who can fix their supply chain first. It’s not a movie; there’s no dramatic climax yet. It’s a slow, painful grind toward a "waning" that might—just might—lead to a ceasefire by the time the snow melts in 2027.
To stay ahead of the curve, you should track the specific delivery dates of the newly pledged European long-range systems, as these are the primary tools experts believe could force a change in the Kremlin’s current "time is on our side" calculus.